Sixty-Plus Days of Trading Lost in Four

Today's additional price plunge has wiped out fully 60+ days of upward movement with just 4 days of downward movement. Prices overlapped the November 15th bar today. This is the definition of 'impulse'.

As far as I can tell, the wave is all-one-movement, and, due to the length of the wave is most probably Minor Wave 1, down, composed of five minute waves - as shown below.

ES Futures - Hourly - Minor 1

Gaps are most usually in the third wave, and that's where this one is shown.  Two of us were able independently to count out the larger minute ((iv)) triangle shown. It is a "running triangle", and that is to be respected for it's lower (b) wave. The collapse that occurred out of that triangle was able to be counted in five waves, with alternation.

We don't know that the down wave is over. That is always a bad assumption in a trending market. The market would have to show that by making a large enough wave to begin a correction. That wave is not entirely in evidence yet.

On the daily time-frame, price closed below both the lower daily Bollinger Band and below the 100-day SMA, so a couple of targets were both met and exceeded.

Note that the wave above does not form a perfect channel. Wave ((v)) is outside of the channel, and this would be expected in an impulse wave. Perfect channels are more a sign of zigzags or multiple zigzags.

This down wave is longer than any of the legs of the triangle, or quasi-triangle that occurred over the summer. That should mean that the degree of the wave has turned, and that's why the wave is labeled as Minor 1.

The primary item of interest to this wave counter is the nature of any retracement that should occur.

Have a good start to the evening.

TraderJoe