Today's additional price plunge has wiped out fully 60+ days of upward movement with just 4 days of downward movement. Prices overlapped the November 15th bar today. This is the definition of 'impulse'.

As far as I can tell, the wave is

*all-one-movement*, and, due to the length of the wave is most probably Minor Wave 1, down, composed of five minute waves - as shown below.ES Futures - Hourly - Minor 1 |

Gaps are most usually in the third wave, and that's where this one is shown. Two of us were able independently to count out the larger minute ((iv)) triangle shown. It is a "running triangle", and that is to be respected for it's lower (b) wave. The collapse that occurred out of that triangle was able to be counted in five waves, with alternation.

We don't

**that the down wave is over. That is always a***know**bad assumption*in a trending market. The market would have to show that by making a large enough wave to begin a correction. That wave is not entirely in evidence yet.
On the daily time-frame, price closed below both the lower daily Bollinger Band and below the 100-day SMA, so a couple of targets were both met and exceeded.

Note that the wave above does not form a perfect channel. Wave ((v)) is outside of the channel, and this would be expected in an impulse wave. Perfect channels are more a sign of zigzags or multiple zigzags.

This down wave is longer than any of the legs of the triangle, or quasi-triangle that occurred over the summer. That should mean that the degree of the wave has turned, and that's why the wave is labeled as Minor 1.

The primary item of interest to this wave counter is the nature of any retracement that should occur.

Have a good start to the evening.

TraderJoe

I hope your (circle i) and (circle ii) are (a) and (b). The past 2 days could be 5 waves for c of A. A triangle would give us time needed to get the weekly AO near 0. Or a flat. We need time to get the weekly AO near 0. 2 fractals back on weekly Dec 2nd 3070.

ReplyDeleteThe new ES low this morning really complicates the count. As of now, you have 7 waves down with the triangle e wave right at the 50% marker. I was smelling a rat when it did not turn at 3176.

ReplyDeleteGold to me is a 3 wave move down to 1627. Expanding Leading Diagonal, Triangle, and Thrust.

Might be an extended ((1)) with ((2)) at the location of ((4))

DeleteIm not new ATH bullish, new low in the overnight just muddied the water. The last 12 hours could be start of a correction leading with a flat.

DeleteAs hard as it is to believe, quite a few wave counters are holding onto bullish counts. Stunning!

ReplyDeleteI expected us to reach 3400 for the simple reason that for the past year closes above the round numbers have followed the same pattern, without fail. I was WRONG. How do I know? I also knew what the FIRST wave down would do after we topped and stated so ad nauseam. This will be my last comment for obvious reasons. Best of luck to everone!

Price contained by upper channel so far. Now do not yell at me, but with the triangle in the middle of this leg down, I believe there would be nothing wrong with this being 1 of a Contracting Leading Diagonal down and we go up to fill the gap for 2.

ReplyDeleteIf somebody takes care the market, I agree that they will try to cover the gap and let a monthly candle less ugly.

DeleteI mentioned before how the moves of the market may become tied to the spread of the virus. In that case if we're in wave 2 then I expect a big surge in less than a month's time coinciding with wave 3 down. Stay safe and prepared!

ReplyDeleteGood morning. This chart focuses on what the overnight action through the present might be. Please respect the usual diagonal invalidation.

ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/pz0y2

TJ

..it might just look like "A", up, in cash.

Delete..c wave of v should be dead-ahead. Invalidation would be over ES 3,197.

Delete..no diagonal now .. look for triangle; running triangle, upward. Usual triangle invalidations apply.

Deletewhat do u mean TJ, This is going to be a bad market.

Deletewhat do u mean this is going to be a bad market TJ??

DeleteGreat ET, thnx !

ReplyDeleteFailed diagonal at top ..watch for 90% down after retrace.

ReplyDeleteHere's the failed diagonal. This is going to be a bad market.

Deletehttps://invst.ly/pz1ld

TJ

Upward channel broken, 3 waves down so far. 3 wave is extended.

Deletehttps://tos.mx/DwIkQjV

ET - wave 1 down in your chart was 4 days. Shouldn't wave 2 ideally be 4 or more days? Would the A-B-C in your recent chart compose a larger A of 2?

ReplyDeleteET - Could the first wave counted above with the failed diagonal be 1 of A and this wave be 2 down of A with a wave 3 up or C up to come. This would provide more time and a higher retrace.

DeleteThat would be assuming that where your (B) is might be the end of wave v of 1 down.

DeleteYes, wave 2 up should be more than 4 days. And no, the wave 1 of A should 'not' have a failure in it. The wave .c of A:3, up, on the other hand may be allowed to have a failure. Then a B:3 wave down, and a C wave up.

DeleteHere's an updated chart.

ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/pz2fv

TJ

..yes the b wave, up, 'can' be a triangle, if it wants.

Delete..and, yes, if it gets to that, the b wave of B:3 can 'also' be a FLAT. Like I said yesterday, there are 13 different ways the market can correct. Even a skilled analyst is working with 'the probabilities'.

Delete..in this instance alone, the b wave can be a) triangle, b) double-zigzag, c) flat, d) triple zigzag.

DeleteGood-bye 61.8%

Delete5 non overlapping wave down.

ReplyDeletehttps://tos.mx/nMi1LbO

V of 5 down off the top. Good alternation between ii and iv. Now to see if in extensions.

ReplyDeleteHello, 78.6%; a B-3 wave needs 90% or greater.

ReplyDeleteSPX 5 min. chart, beautiful little ED shaping up now

ReplyDeleteNote B-3 is 'most commonly' a double or triple zigzag.

ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/pz3bo

TJ

..also note that (x) is higher degree than b of B-3. It is larger in price.

DeleteHere's the situation near the cash close. A 90% B-3 wave would be at 3,100.00, and, B-3 waves, of course, can break the bottom if they want to.

Deletehttps://invst.ly/pz43k

TJ

..and in the A-H the (w) wave was exceeded lower.

Delete..and there is no problem in the A-H if the (x) wave wants to become longer like a larger flat to take more time. This is where I get some sleep...lol.

DeleteThank you Joe for the detailed analisys on today corrective waves. It has been very EW educational.

Delete..welcome 6Q.

DeleteA new post has been started for the next day.

ReplyDelete