We said it would be more convincing that we had started wave (iv) down if there was overlap on ES 3,335, and that occurred early this morning. As a result, there is a bumpy, scraggly, non-overlapping five waves down - with alternation - as shown on the ES 15-min chart below.
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| ES Futures - 15 Minute - Close Only |
At 3:40 pm ET, because of this count, we said that the lowest low at 3,328 could be the end of the five-wave sequence, and to watch for an ES 30 minute outside-reversal candle as a sign the low might be in. By about 3:50 pm ET, that outside reversal bar, up, had occurred, and maintained until the close. As a result, that 3,328 level should be watched to see if it holds as a bottom in the overnight weekend session.
In this count, the alternation is with wave ((2)) being a flat, and wave ((4)) being a running triangle. Wave ((1)) is an impulse and wave ((5)) is a diagonal. As a result of the running triangle, it should be assumed that lower lows are eventually possible. If running triangles are bullish in bull markets, they should be somewhat bearish in corrections.
Keep in mind that the purpose of the running triangle is to "take up time - during the overnight in this case - move prices sideways, and to better equalize the net distance traveled with wave ((2))", which it does really effectively in this example.
Since, there appears to be a diagonal fifth wave - alternatively a larger flat in progress from (1) of ((5)) - then price 'should' make it up over wave ((4)) on order to prove out such a diagonal.
Doing so would likely start the b wave of (iv), upward - again if didn't already start as a larger flat wave, with ((1)) of ((5)) actually being ((5)).
Have an excellent start to the weekend.
TraderJoe
Thanks Joe, could you shed some light on the following question regarding degree considerations on your 15-min chart on ES?
ReplyDeleteCan a small-degree subwave of wave 4 that is in the same direction of wave 2 be larger than the entire wave 2?
Specifically, (A)-up of ((4)) up is 35.5 points based on broker trade quotes, and 25.5 points on the line chart (bar closes) shown above.
((2)) up is 12.5 points based on broker quotes and 11 points on the line chart (bar closes) show above.
Is this a degree violation or allowed by degree guidance/rules?
Greatly appreciated.
MTU
I was trained that the only measurement that matters in a valid triangle is the (e) wave. There are plenty of larger waves on the chart - in both directions - than the ones you cite.
Deletemany thanks! Can we extrapolate that for a flat, the only measurement that matters is the (c) wave for degree calculations? (perhaps not in an expanded flat with very large b-wave?) Appreciate your insights.
DeleteNo.
DeleteTrying to post a bearish count. 5 waves down and a plausible deadly W2.
ReplyDeleteNice call.
DeleteCan you have wxy for this wave 4?
ReplyDeleteNot in a larger diagonal wave. Can have, A down in 5, a flat B, and C down in 5; and the flat B may 'give the appearance' of wxy.
DeleteFor those interested, this is what I meant by a possible flat B wave within a zigzag, lower. Depends how much muscle they have on Sunday-Monday as to whether they can fill the gap on SPY. But, there is some very choppy stuff at the bottom - see arrow.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/pxqrv
TJ
It would also be a way to get the B wave longer in time.
DeleteI think the great Fed induced 3 wave bull market finished. I count everything as 3's. fwiw.. I think that formation off the top is "nested 1,2"s and a LDT which will break lower in a gap down thrust. see charts
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/6pZdtMWB/2020-02-22-1439.png
https://i.postimg.cc/NFTHBMtp/2020-02-21-1814.png
I was thinking the same - the more I watch the index from 2009 the more I think this is impulse with zig-zags. There is no normal wave2, 0-2 line impulse third wave etc. just zig-zags.
DeleteBut I think it is not finished - https://imgur.com/a/0bS6mp2
The final zig-zag is not complete and we have shorter 4 year cycle with length 3.5 years which is not complete.
It is a theory at the moment, lets see what happens.
Right on baby gap down YM's off 265
DeleteI agree with this. The intervention by central banks in the market has been relentless. Every attempt of the market to decline impulsively has been violently arrested issuing in massive three wave structures. It also explains why wave counters have had such a difficult time in correctly counting the waves. Some appareently sitll hold the in my view incorrect notion that the waves unfold entirely independent of CB intervention and depend ONLY on so called "herd sentiment". I suspect that enough failures just might cause some to re-think their view on this particular point.
DeleteCBs can only delay the inevitable. In wave counting terms this is by creating extended waves and B waves.
DeleteOnly a BSE can bring the big C wave, because the fundamental results behind that will be powerful enough to override CB intervention.
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DeleteI agree. Their intervention will ultimately prove futile. I have been watching in amazement as negative divergences peristed for months at a time and wondering what catalyst would trigger the reversion move. Amusing to hear them attributing it to Covid 19. It will be interesting to see how the CBs handle the decimation of second quarter corporate earnings. I think we may have our trigger...finally...
DeleteWorldwide search interest in coronavirus retrace to 76% and bouncing. Wave 2?
ReplyDeletehttps://i.ibb.co/vqjnPNq/Screenshot-20200223-162554.png
This looks ripe for some reversals.
ReplyDeleteCatch a falling knife? we just broke the H&S NL at 29,000 break away gap down in a 3rd wave.
DeleteIt may be, but I do not like the second nest taking longer than the first with a gap in the futures.
Deleteanyway I observe a 5th wave failure at the top which implies a nasty decline going forward possibly a retrace of the entire wave up.
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/D04L14gQ/2020-02-23-1530.png
back down to 28,100 on the YM's
DeleteOn Friday traders were in shock that the market had a mini flash crash. Warren Buffett issued a hope statement that he could unload 54 Billion in un realised profits. A unexpected bad situation.
ReplyDeleteBoard is now full of bears.
ReplyDeleteBounce to new highs must be due....
Lol!
DeleteThe herd trained like Pavlov's dog:)))
DeleteWhere is the 3400 guy?
Next wave up...
Delete/ES diagonal invalidated.
ReplyDelete/YM as well
DeleteInteresting to note the ES daily high is at the apex point of the daily X wave triangle location.
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DeleteCould ii be reset with an expanded flat for larger ending pattern of some type?
DeleteOr do we default to original ED pattern speculation now confirmed?
Deletehttps://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2020/02/uglier-but-still-legal.html
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ReplyDeleteHmm weird if market topped on negative sentiment from last couple weeks, I wonder if this impulse down is a C = ((C)) but I can’t find a overall count for this..
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteHe was right about te larger trend
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DeleteI cannot make a EED diagonal work from ES 3069. This could be a c wave in a running triangle. Just do not like that I cant find an ending pattern.
ReplyDeleteWould think CNBC has some fed members in the green room rehearsing "stocks have more value this morning because Interest rates are lower".
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DeleteIn the $ES we have a leadingd diagonal A followed by a B & C wave. The C wave ended in truncation. that's it folks... Have you ever seen a Leading Diagonal inside of an Ending Diagonal? And since the big piture is an ending diagonal I did not expect an ending diagonal at the end...
Deletetake care,
KAVI
Maybe this is what happened, an extended 1..but probably not since ET have refused to even consider this an impulse from Oct 19 bec it doesn't fit the WXY
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/py4r7
In your chart, (4) do not overlap (1).
DeleteIs possible a flat ? A in your (2), B in your (5) and now in C ?
Yes maybe
Delete15 minute S&P 500 futures showing some positive divergences on AO: https://invst.ly/py51u
ReplyDeleteAll time high on LQD so no stress in credit market yet,
ReplyDeleteGold looks to have a valid Expanding Diagonal down on the 5 min.
ReplyDeleteGentlemen.. Just taking a hack at the Futures currently Looks like it could be 2.618 extension. Let em know what you think.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/pIpOHrM
Like TJ always says a Triangle must prove itself but sure is looking like one.
Deletelooks good...is the 4th wave suppose to be a triangle?
ReplyDeleteS&P500 cash, next cash gap fill at 3,225.52; almost there.
ReplyDelete..now upward overlap before 100% was reached, makes diagonal vth possible (may be diagonal vth of .3 down); not more than ten upward 5-min candles.
Delete..and, if not, then a triangle ended around 11:30 am ET.
Delete..cash fills the gap
DeleteUpdate of 15 min chart above (when handy)?
ReplyDeleteThanks!
Best I can do with a count that is complete at the apex.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/lZSBUPV
Here's what Neely would say regarding a truncated "C". Fwiw
Deletehttps://imgur.com/2r0Z446
Thx for that info.
DeleteThanks BBrider, here's how C might ended, and who knows, maybe the market "wanted" to follow through with the diagonal up until last week, but the market chose the alternating "shorter" path.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/py8jt
Im thinking the only bullish option left would be this being the C wave of a flat for B. Congrats to Fast996. Gonna have to get another tattoo "beware of wedge into an apex".
DeleteI don't think the bullish C is a good alternate anymore since the decline on some indices is bigger than the E leg of the bigger degree triangle which might mean a degree change.
DeleteI would agree, just trying to cross options off the list.
DeleteThe drop from ATH may be an impulse with an extended fifth wave.
ReplyDeleteCurrently, some reaction at the red line looks probable.
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-FoSRlcWpnDM/XlQagBctqtI/AAAAAAAAltE/Dnd7lQJBKus8NQH-Zn7szd7slFZ6bF6VgCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/SPX-20200224.png
Gold Expanding Diagonal looks legit.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/4m6z0wq
Might watch for a measured move. ES 5-min.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/py92p
TJ
..now above neck line
DeleteSPX (cash) fully retraced (to the tick) the move up from late Jan.
ReplyDelete(Basis TradingView SPX cfd-TVC).
Delete..exceeded it (the Jan low) by 0.03 according to broker quotes.
DeleteIF ES gets above 3,244,50; then the down leg "might" qualify for an expanding diagonal - possibly allowing lower prices in the overnight, as Asia and Europe get up and see how our markets have responded. Please note that the daily ES has already tagged the lower daily BB, so it might be bumpy down there.
ReplyDelete..there is ES 3,245.00
Delete..here is the measured move projection; as a downward diagonal, must hold 3,260.00 ES
Deletehttps://invst.ly/py9bx
TJ
..lots of volatility .. measured move target met; this up wave should remain a "three", and the low must be exceeded for a downward expanding diagonal. Trend lines are shown.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/py9g2
TJ
..downward overlap is occurring
Deletehttps://invst.ly/py9oc
TJ
Here's the futures settle. Gads of triangles and diagonals contained within. At the settle, the potential a wave of 5, exceeded the low of the b wave of 4. For a true diagonal, then wave 5 should be longer in price than wave 3.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/py9y7
TJ