If yesterday made a marginal higher high, last night finished the upward fifth wave - or upward .b wave of b that I had in mind - and today made a marginal lower low, then rebounded vigorously. There remain two good possibilities, depending on whether we go over the top tomorrow or back down through the lows.
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| ES Futures - 2 Hr - Lower Daily Low |
Uncertainty is at its near highest here. If we continue lower it will likely be as a choppy diagonal downward. And if we go over the high marginally again, then it could be that the larger b wave downward has finished, and the upward move will be a new location for minuet (iii).
The Dow has made a downward overlap that could be for wave (iv). The ES futures and S&P500 have not. There are times of extreme chop like this when it makes most sense to let the market resolve the structure. The only observation I have is that a b wave here does provide more time to an a-b-c structure and is a bit more proportional, but a new marginal high would be needed to prove that case. I'd like to see a good overlap of 3,335 to indicate that wave (iv) was underway.
Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
If you're correct, it does demonstrate the merit of EW, and patience.
ReplyDeleteI do however have a sense of deja vu, going back to last summer.
Fingers crossed.
ES futures have the lower low, probably as that diagonal fifth wave.
ReplyDelete..a fourth wave 'could' also be viewed as a triangle in the futures, but it is not very proportional. Technically, futures now have overlap on wave (i) at 3,337.00, and lower.
Delete..can be viewed as five-waves down, like this ..
Deletehttps://invst.ly/pxha0
This could be the thrust out of the triangle or just part of a diagonal fifth wave down.
TJ
Because of the internal waves, Im wondering if this is not what is going on with daily gold.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/U0It7hE
Along with massive divergence on your EO also
DeleteLow of morning (so far) at SPX 3332 also provides good overlap on wave (i) with cash as well as futures.
ReplyDeleteVXX
ReplyDeletehttps://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=VXX&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
S&P 500 daily futures at the 18ma and with slow stoch. still barely above 80: https://invst.ly/pxkf-
ReplyDeleteES futures; the 3:30 pm ET new low at 3,328 can count as five-down, or very nearly five down. I'd watch for a ES 30-min reversal candle to better describe when the bottom is likely in.
ReplyDeleteES futures 30-min; outside candle up. If the low of that candle holds, then that is likely the 'a' wave of (iv), down.
Delete..candle held till the cash close.
DeleteA new post has started for the next day.
ReplyDelete