We have been looking for an extended fifth wave in the futures. Because of both the timing and length differences between futures and cash, we can count the cash index slightly differently and still maintain degree labeling. Here is the count on the S&P500 cash index on the 15-minute chart.
SP500 Cash Index - 15 Min - Channel Count |
At this location wave ((i)) is slightly shorter in length than 1, and wave 3 works out length-wise as far as the internals go. Wave ((ii)) is a flat, and wave ((iv)) is a triangle for alternation. All of Wave 3 would be above a line from 0 to 2. Wave 4 would be ending in the vicinity of a prior wave 4, and the Elliott Wave Oscillator is giving the classic fourth wave signature. A new high is possible, and even probable.
Provided the fourth wave ends near this location, the futures are just hanging on to the extended fifth wave count.
Have an excellent start to the day.
TraderJoe
lets pretend and extend indef....
ReplyDeleteAmazon looks like it might go parabolic.
ReplyDeleteNDX about finished...say good bye to the manic Fed induced bull market. Short!
ReplyDeleteNDX made the final minute wave 5 high by 1 penny 9453.2 vs 9453.1 amazing
ReplyDeleteUntil lower lows and lower highs have been established on NDX, it may be premature to call the top: https://invst.ly/psklf
ReplyDeleteGet ready for minute 3 down in the Dow
ReplyDeleteDJI the first cracks? - https://imgur.com/a/17LdS0A
ReplyDeleteHow do you get from 3324.78, end of triangle, to the top in 5 non-overlapping waves? There is overlap of 3337.58 (assumed to be (i)) with 3334.39 (assumed to be (iv))?
ReplyDeleteThat last lower low poses a real challenge for the impulse count. It invalidated the x5 in the futures. That leaves this possibility, with it marginal higher high it could have been a-b-c to (iii).
ReplyDeletehttp://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2020/02/possible-e-d-for-es-futures.html
The whole wave itself is taking "too much time" compared to waves 2, and (ii). I'll post an updated count under this one in a moment. Please note we have already crossed back under the wave (i) high, making a wave (iv) in progress a legal 'item' by the rules.
TJ
All readers should note 'I did everything possible' to count impulsively. But, when an impulse count can not be sustained, one 'must' go with non-impulsive options.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/pslux
TJ
Should accelerate down into the close. The BKX looks to be in a 3rd now. IMHO
ReplyDeleteWell the market still wants to BTD but Monday will be different. Lots of impulsive down action today. Have a great weekend.
DeleteYou, too, fast.
DeleteEvening star candlestick pattern on the DOW. SPX almost has the pattern too.
ReplyDeleteCould the advance this week be a B wave, with the last two weeks of January the A wave?
Please see the next day's post.
DeleteOn the SPX...my view is from the top to the close today,you have to draw a channel. Then I count everything as a running impulse,as 1 abc,1 and a more complex corrective wave and then 1 of 3 that is ready to extend down Monday at the open. IMHO this is not a corrective wave dowm. FWIW
ReplyDeleteActually from the top on Feb. 6
DeleteI agree with starting a downward channel, but see the next day's post.
DeleteIf you look at the YM's you'll notice a large descending triangle which should break down. fitting a 3rd wave down in the NDX monday morning.That's it.
Delete