Friday, February 7, 2020

Needs to Hold About Here

We have been looking for an extended fifth wave in the futures. Because of both the timing and length differences between futures and cash, we can count the cash index slightly differently and still maintain degree labeling. Here is the count on the S&P500 cash index on the 15-minute chart.

SP500 Cash Index - 15 Min - Channel Count

At this location wave ((i)) is slightly shorter in length than 1, and wave 3 works out length-wise as far as the internals go. Wave ((ii)) is a flat, and wave ((iv)) is a triangle for alternation. All of Wave 3 would be above a line from 0 to 2. Wave 4 would be ending in the vicinity of a prior wave 4, and the Elliott Wave Oscillator is giving the classic fourth wave signature. A new high is possible, and even probable.

Provided the fourth wave ends near this location, the futures are just hanging on to the extended fifth wave count.

Have an excellent start to the day.
TraderJoe

20 comments:

  1. lets pretend and extend indef....

    ReplyDelete
  2. Amazon looks like it might go parabolic.

    ReplyDelete
  3. NDX about finished...say good bye to the manic Fed induced bull market. Short!

    ReplyDelete
  4. NDX made the final minute wave 5 high by 1 penny 9453.2 vs 9453.1 amazing

    ReplyDelete
  5. Until lower lows and lower highs have been established on NDX, it may be premature to call the top: https://invst.ly/psklf

    ReplyDelete
  6. Get ready for minute 3 down in the Dow

    ReplyDelete
  7. DJI the first cracks? - https://imgur.com/a/17LdS0A

    ReplyDelete
  8. How do you get from 3324.78, end of triangle, to the top in 5 non-overlapping waves? There is overlap of 3337.58 (assumed to be (i)) with 3334.39 (assumed to be (iv))?

    ReplyDelete
  9. That last lower low poses a real challenge for the impulse count. It invalidated the x5 in the futures. That leaves this possibility, with it marginal higher high it could have been a-b-c to (iii).

    http://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2020/02/possible-e-d-for-es-futures.html

    The whole wave itself is taking "too much time" compared to waves 2, and (ii). I'll post an updated count under this one in a moment. Please note we have already crossed back under the wave (i) high, making a wave (iv) in progress a legal 'item' by the rules.

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. All readers should note 'I did everything possible' to count impulsively. But, when an impulse count can not be sustained, one 'must' go with non-impulsive options.

      https://invst.ly/pslux

      TJ

      Delete
  10. Should accelerate down into the close. The BKX looks to be in a 3rd now. IMHO

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well the market still wants to BTD but Monday will be different. Lots of impulsive down action today. Have a great weekend.

      Delete
  11. Evening star candlestick pattern on the DOW. SPX almost has the pattern too.

    Could the advance this week be a B wave, with the last two weeks of January the A wave?

    ReplyDelete
  12. On the SPX...my view is from the top to the close today,you have to draw a channel. Then I count everything as a running impulse,as 1 abc,1 and a more complex corrective wave and then 1 of 3 that is ready to extend down Monday at the open. IMHO this is not a corrective wave dowm. FWIW

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Actually from the top on Feb. 6

      Delete
    2. I agree with starting a downward channel, but see the next day's post.

      Delete
    3. If you look at the YM's you'll notice a large descending triangle which should break down. fitting a 3rd wave down in the NDX monday morning.That's it.

      Delete
  13. A new post has been added for the next day.

    ReplyDelete