We spend the day counting out live and in real time the fifth wave of the c wave of wave (iii) of the daily diagonal below. As we said yesterday, just move the (iii) to today's high if a higher high was made. It was, and prices tagged 3,381.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Wave (iii) |
If this pattern is correct, prices should now trade near or below the last blue b wave of wave (iii) to claim we are in wave (iv).
If you are interested in the c wave count up to today's high, please see the comments from the prior post.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
In SPX I see an expanding diagonal from 3370.63 iv low (iv was flat with slightly higher low for c). 3374.68, 3373.24, 3378.84, 3374.55, 3381.47. An expanding diagonal should have 3-0=5-2 which this does.
ReplyDeleteThere it goes!
ReplyDeleteVirus hits London. Game over baby.
ReplyDeleteGive it two weeks tops, whew, crazy period ahead.
Time to panic buy (food, not stawks).
Don't like the count ? No problem it will change soon. My experience here has confirmed EW is a great "After the Fact" tool. That's why Bob Prechter does not own the world.
ReplyDeleteWhich tool is better than EW and shows top/bottom in advance?
DeleteWith all the respects. How many times we have read here yours forecasts on tops that have failed? You have employed numerology, you said Gann stuff. You have not hit never nothing. I do not understand your critic on Elliott Waves.
DeleteSure, it would be easier to say, "I'm bull until it loss the 2900 level". Like this, sure that no faults never. How functions most.
How many times you have announced that your systems have turned to short, with error ? Many.
DeleteIt Will be very wellcome that you explain us which system functions better that this, and very sure, opened.
Only a few of you that are left will see this before TJ deletes this and bans me from here.....no loss.
ReplyDeleteNo. I'm just surprised you would say this after all the intraday work I did on the previous post. I posted 15-min, 5-min and even 1 min charts to wrap up the count. They are still there and you can review them to see they were done "live and in real time". Maybe you could explain to me what made you make the comment. Maybe you didn't see the intraday work.
DeleteTJ
Scotty, I don't think EWT can ever be a stand alone system. However, combined with technical analysis it is quite helpful. TJ calls it as it counts and that's all anyone can do.
DeleteThis 10 year bull market has been built on running second waves in my opinion signalling strength all the way and it continues to show up in my primary or alternative counts. Restricting valid Elliot wave counts by wave degrees is very insightful but without quantifiable rules its validiy cant be "measured". The B wave is a by product of degree rules I think Joe would agree. If it turns out we take out Dec 2018 lows in next 12 or 18 months it would validate Joe's contribution in my mind. Until that happens I'll continue appreciating his work and giving him thanks regardless of outcome.
Delete@ Scott no need to criticize, everybody should do their own dd, the thing that determines EW as a tool is the risk management and understanding of alternative counts, and there's always alternative counts which means market can adapt to economic events, So you'd better expect changed/revised counts at anytime. ET is doing a great job with this blog and as Marc mentioned the B wave count will be very interesting from a degree point of view.
DeleteRegarding degree, I mentioned the impulse 2 days ago that now seems proven. Once again it comes down to interpretation of degree which ET and I didn't agree on. The internal lower degree wave was bigger in time and price in upward direction, but net distance was smaller.
On the other hand recent ((b)) is bigger than net distance of X triangle, so maybe takeaway is that only one of these scenarios needs to be fulfilled depending on the situation? If bigger degree is doing a complex structure that spends a lot of time like double/tripple ZZ or triangle the net distance is less important, as long as the internal subwaves is bigger? And vise versa, if bigger degree is a fast simple ZZ it's the net distance that's important, how can the bigger degree otherwise prove itself?? I think that makes sense..
Btw the breadth is ugly this last leg up if you look at moving averages, is this considered enough weakness? I dono about NYAD, my spontaneous thought about NYAD is that are we ever going to have up days on indices where more stocks is down than up in this crazy stock market? How is NYAD ever going to diverge?
Deletehttp://www.indexindicators.com/_charts/sp500-vs-sp500-stocks-above-50d-sma-params-x-x-x-10ma.png?ver=2020021311
@marc, @Erik, @scout; It's not just about degree labeling. It is also about the 0 - 2 trend line. I waited until there was clear overlap this morning to present this case. But I saved myself a bunch of money, effort and grief this morning (..and then turned around and made some), by recognition of the 0 - 2 trend line in this simple chart.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/puo0x
Because the brown line cuts off what some would 'claim' was a third wave, market momentum says otherwise. Only the blue line location does not cut off a third wave. Further, the downward wave was only 1.27 x A.
Hence, the downward count 'had' to be just a-b-c downward. And now the upward overlap - which I was well prepared for in advance - proves the case. And I hope my writing about to you shows my earnest approach to providing you with the rules that work. Whether you believe them or not, they are a great assist to my wave counting and trading. I have more to do to help people count correctly. I plan on doing it.
TJ
thank you for the zero to 2 line info
Deleteit is quite helpful
Yes thanks. The result of the 02 trendline creates after the fact recognition of second wave running flats. These are often inflection points where a premature downward count gets negated.
DeleteThose that write here critiquing elliott, they do not propose never an alternative system, better. Some reason?
ReplyDelete...do not say me that your system is secret.
Exactly, always the same - big mouths and I always ask the same suggest something better.... silence:))))
DeletePlease see above at 9:13 am, also.
DeleteWhat I see, DJ but the same idea for SP500 - https://invst.ly/puik4
ReplyDeletePlenty of indexes with clear corrective waves so w-x-y(red) will not be a surprise. If we do not see an impulsive reversal - ED a-b-c/Y
4 hr gold triangle and ES diagonal seem to line up but would imply quite a chopfest for a few days.
ReplyDeleteOn S&P 500 cash, was that it for wave 4 in ET's chart above? If it is an ending diagonal, would any of wave 4 be allowed over the high of wave 3?
ReplyDeleteCorrection, I meant S&P 500 futures above.
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DeleteCertainly getting rsi divergence on hourly.
ReplyDeleteOn daily, weekly and montly.
DeleteZZ down and up.... it smells like another ED - https://invst.ly/puro7
ReplyDeleteLooks like (iv) is done and (v) of TJ's count is in progress.
ReplyDeleteNote that as SPX hits a new high, VIX is not confirming with a new low.
DeleteBelow 15, VIX price action is not really probative as it can trade at these low levels for protracted periods...
DeleteWith the higher high, there is now the possibility of an impulse with an ending diagonal. It would be the extended first wave scenario, with either of two styles of fourth waves. The second style is in red and provides much more time.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ecGtoAmX/
As an impulse, this wave 'could' fit with the ending diagonal Intermediate (5) count.
TJ
This style of count also works with the 0 - 2 trend line. It is only wave ((4)) that breaks it.
DeleteOnce again I think the legs counts best as 5 = leading diagonal. Let's see
Deletehttps://invst.ly/pusg2
I have a hard time counting circle 3 using 02 trendline within that wave
Delete@marc..make wave iv within circle-3 a very, long flat or triangle
DeleteIf you are right, the bottom falls out with new lows early in futures....
DeleteIndustrials still haven't filled its opening gap.
ReplyDelete"hasn't"
ReplyDeleteAs far as I can tell, below 3370, the degree will turn.
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