While many other sites and videos were concentrating on trying to tell you on Friday how they had detected a downward wave in the market, we said in our weekend posts that the task at hand was to concentrate on the retrace wave. They did not say that. We did.
Below is the hourly chart of the ES E-Mini S&P500 futures showing today's hourly retrace wave.
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| ES Futures - Hourly - Channel |
We showed the downward gap. We showed the filling of the gap. We showed the up channel. We showed the 62% retrace level. This is Elliott at its finest. The downward wave is still very choppy, but the market appeared to have lost some momentum somehow by temporarily, at least, stepping out of that upward channel.
We tried counting an expanding diagonal lower, but that invalidated and we noted when it did. So, one structure that tends to step outside of channels is a triangle. Given, that Google's earnings are after the close today, perhaps it is a set-up for their report.
It's possible a triangle is being formed before a last heave-ho upward. But, it is impossible to say without all five legs in place - hence the big blue question mark. Otherwise, the next best idea would be a double zigzag upward.
It would make sense to move a wave counting stop to below the ((A)) wave location, and see if it is honored in the overnight.
Have a good start to the week,
TraderJoe
Thank you Joe, as always. I really appreciate the explanations you give!
ReplyDeleteJoe -
ReplyDeleteCan an "e" leg of a triangle be longer in time than "d", even though shorter in price?
Thanks!
yes, GW; as far as I know, it can.
DeleteTsla over 900, seems CB's got this under control.
ReplyDeleteA couple stray observations: Looks like SOX made a diagonal lower and now has three waves up (for a possible (b) wave). Other major indices appear as they may be completing a complex (b) of ((b)). But who knows!
ReplyDeleteGold would have to turn in here for a c wave of the larger triangle. Otherwise Sunday night was a truncated high with an CED.
ReplyDeleteCash and ES prices have both gone 'over the top'. Cash filled a gap. But the up wave is slower in time than the down wave, and this suggests that any further down wave (if one occurs) would be in the form of a diagonal.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/pqyr8
TJ
I was just zooming out to daily and weekly to try to step back and take a broader picture of things. Weekly makes it look like you might be able to count the move from Oct as having just finished a 4th wave and now in 5. Is there any way that that might count properly?
ReplyDeletePS. I know that you have discussed your alternate of an ending diagonal and the move up from Oct as being 5 waves. I just haven't seen that alternate re-assessed recently and wondering if it might still measure.
DeleteDaily S&P 500 futures AO in 4th wave territory. Maybe a 5th wave up creating a negative divergence on AO? https://invst.ly/pqzba
ReplyDeleteBlogspot needs a comment "Like" button
DeleteAt the 'moment', cash only has 'three-waves-up'. This is just like I said it had only three-waves-down and everyone was immediately wondering "how low are my projections". I ask people to focus on the present. I do not 'mind' if this wave impulses upward, but it has not yet shown impulse wave form.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/pq-5p
There would need to be a fourth and fifth wave up at some point for an impulse count. And, for an upward triangle or diagonal the move is quite rapid (i.e. it wouldn't look like a triangle in form at this point).
TJ
Keep an eye peeled for a short-term divergence.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/pr09v
TJ
..need to cross below the wave labeled as ((4)) to start any type of down move, at all.
Delete