ES Daily Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Lower Close: Inverted Hammer Candle
Market Posture: Neutral and Probing Waves
Daily Swing Line: Up (Higher Low, Higher High)
Daily Bias: Up (Settle Over 18-day SMA)
The wave labels have been left off of the daily chart, below, for a reason. They will be published in a weekend video. Today's candle is called a weak inverted hammer because it did not close clearly red. As with most candle-stick patterns a confirming daily lower close candle is needed to suggest the end of an upward count.
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| ES - Daily - Inverted Hammer |
Prices traded much higher in the evening. They tried to hit the upper daily Bollinger Band, but did not. We were able to count a completed impulse, upward from the August 28th low. (See yesterday's comments). Then prices traded all the way back down to tag the 100-day SMA before bouncing into the close. As you can see from the Fibonacci ruler on the side, prices briefly traded above the 62% retracement level, and then closed below it. From the August 26th low, one can count three-waves up.
The daily Bollinger Bands are traveling sideways at this time, and the daily slow stochastic is currently in over-bought territory. I hope to have more for you later in the weekend.
For now, have a good start to your weekend, and/or holiday!
TraderJoe
Thanks Joe for all your efforts! There are numerous spam messages every now and then and one of the ways to moderate the forum would be to have a report spam link next to every comment, and when more than 5 or 10 or N users mark a comment as spam, it could be automatically hidden/deleted.
ReplyDeleteJoe, I believe that Inverted Hammer is not the correct name for the candlestick here. Shooting Star is better. But in any case, the candlestick is weak. It is also almost a Spinning Top candlestick too. Market is at an inflection point here at the upper boundary of the trading range it has been stuck in.
ReplyDeleteCentral bankers also pay close attention to market price action and we have seen quite a few cases of what used to be reliable reversal signals being violently negated. Several I have noticed the past few years include shooting stars, spinning tops, bearish engulfing candles, and exhaustion gaps. What is even more remarkable is that such negation is now being seen on even
ReplyDeletelarger time frames such as monthly candles. I think they are no longer a reliable indicator of likely future price action. It will be interesting to see how much longer price remains elevated with the persistently high number of index components making new 52 week lows. At some point the advance on narrowing breadth will reach an inflection point. These conditions suggest the eventual turn and decline will be precipitous.
If the president hears about the inverted hammer he'll be talking about how he loves bullish engulfing candles next week as he finds a way to unfix the hammer with a monster rally day!
ReplyDeleteLol! I think he sees trying to jawbone the market higher going into next November is his primary mission!
DeleteHopefully this will clarify. I believe you will see that Friday's candle is most likely a long-legged doji.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/bhijB7V
Count me in the spinning top camp
ReplyDeletehttps://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinning-top.asp
Perhaps, but with Friday's ES "body" (open/close) difference of only a 1/2 pt., I have to go with a doji. :o)
DeleteAnother post (video) has been started for the next day.
ReplyDelete