Prices as measured by the ES E-Mini S&P500 futures on the hourly chart made a clear 2.618 extension today.
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| ES - Hourly - 2.618 Extension |
This ups the odds in favor of the top at the high, but - as the saying goes - it's not over 'till it's over. The last hourly candle of the cash session is an outside reversal candle, up, but, so far in the after-hours, most of its gains have been given up. That being the case, the odds increase to 80% for a top, 20% for the impulse minute ((c)), up. Not impossible, but very hard to see at this point. Sometimes announcements are made the following day which can not be known as of today.
Obviously, this could be part of a third wave down (whether iii or c). The EWO is at a low. There continues to be no counting of upward waves until a higher high day is made.
Patience, flexibility and calm are needed as various nations try to pull the trade rug out from under each other. So silly.
Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
Biggest decline in Australia and European indices since December. Degree change? Futures put in another 5 down in the AH which didn't reach the LOD on the YM and ES but did on the NQ. Bullish interpretation could be a truncation. Bearish interpretation is wave i of another move lower.
ReplyDeleteSPY low taken out after hours.
DeleteNow DIA, IWM, and QQQ all lower than during the session.
DeleteYep, sure looks like the bearish interpretation.
DeleteAs I thought they might, they are putting massive doubt into the 1-2 i-ii bull count asap that I saw many putting out there today, lol.
ReplyDeleteAs I stated in yesterday's comments, by now trading below 2,795 (futures off -41 at 2,788 at this time), this down wave is now longer in price than the May - Jun down wave. That means 1) there has likely been a turn of degree, and 2) it rules out any kind of contracting ending diagonal Primary ((5))th wave at this high that some might have been contemplating. That is because the fourth wave in a contracting diagonal may not be longer than the second wave. And 3) it also rules out a 1-2-i-ii count upward, since wave ii - which is supposed to be of smaller degree 'can not' be larger than wave 2, which is supposed to be of larger degree.
ReplyDeleteTJ
hmmmm. process of elimination at work....
DeleteRussell 2000 futures have cracked the June low!
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/bk4j9
TJ
ET
ReplyDeleteLooks like PPT on the job. Tomorrow could be a reversal bar. Reversal for wave A down, maybe. Thanks for the videos! Those are nice for recap as I don't have time to follow everything.
ET could you please comment on the possible degree problem I asked about in yesterdays post? That the (X) down of ((B)) takes more time than all of ((A)) down from ath? I find this really important any maybe others too. I never want to challenge the counts on this blogg, just want to learn and maybe contribute a little if possible..thanks!
ReplyDeleteI guess it doesn't really matter that much if we move the (X), it's water under the bridge, and why is there a perfect ending diagonal?!
DeleteBtw take a look at this nice time relationship between ((A)) and ((B))!
https://invst.ly/bkoc3
I believe I did comment on it. And the Russell has made a new lower low, if that's what you were referring to.
DeleteIt is also 'possible' to count the entire structure as I did originally. W-X-Y-X-Z, with the first X as the "triangle" in the S&P500 and the Dow. Now, the only thing that matters is 'new low before new high, or new high before new low'.
DeleteYes you did comment maybe your answer was regarding SPX and DJI as well as I was referring to thanks!
DeleteYes possible and here is another W-X-Y-X-Z count. I guess as long as A up is smaller than (Y) it's ok? Another bullish leg up would certainly ease sentiment alot..
https://invst.ly/bkoqz
No degree violations? All X waves is shorter than ((A)) down?
DeleteYep, that is the issue with just W-X-Y, there is always the possibility of another X & Z. But, now in your diagram above the smaller degree (W) as you have labeled it is larger in price than all of your larger degree ((A)) at the bottom. You should try to use the correct degree labels, such as Intermediate (B) at the high.
DeleteHmm yes but ((A)) is down and (W) is up correcting ((A))? In an impuls we measure 1 up with 3 and 5 up not 2 or 4 down just 2 and 4 separate?
DeleteIt's (W) versus ((A)). Keep it simple.
DeleteThis is what I mean regarding an impulse, are you certain this is incorrect?
Deletehttps://invst.ly/bkpro
Unbelievable bounce this morning!
ReplyDeleteFutures up 250 pts!
ET...what should we make of this?
'Unbelievable' is not a reference to an Elliott wave term. Drawing a channel is an Elliott Wave function, as below.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/bkomz
TJ
No divergence yet on AO or Fisher. Possible flat or sideways movement with a slight new low ahead? https://invst.ly/bkovv
DeletePerhaps these fifteen minute fractals would be suggestive of downside continuation, if hit below the EMA-34. Not before.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/bkpi1
TJ
Posted this about a month ago with Gann Fan lines. Fascinating to watch which lines the market is adhering to. Yesterday hit the second box pretty square on! After what I assume will be a messy corrective sequence, I expect the third box to come into play at 2680-2640. Maybe 6ish weeks? Only time will tell!
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/w3mdnKQ9/
Here's an update on the fractals. One fractal lower was hit at the EMA-34. That created both another red (down) fractal, and a green (up) fractal, as below.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/bkqoy
TJ
Next down fractal just broke under the EMA-34.
DeleteET, expanding diagonal down from today's high?
ReplyDeleteLINK - https://imgur.com/v2pRWu8
yes.
DeleteThere is yet another red (down)fractal on the ES 15-min.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/bkrub
TJ
There is now also a 'three-touch' trend line up from the lows.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/bksha
TJ
Now there is another green (up) fractal, as below.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/bksv4
TJ
If the expanding diagonal is not an expanding diagonal I wonder if we have all of the retrace. 30% for YM and ES and a bit over 50% in the cash market. DAX and CAC futures got to 40%. YM/ES/NQ/ RUT futures/ DAX futures/ CAC futures and Euro Stoxx 50 futures all seem to count okay as "5 up". All raced to the 38.2% retrace area of the y/c/iii wave making things look like i, ii, iii , iv. I'm not a big fan of the downward impulse count (yet). Very unusual to get "5 up" for "a of c of iv" across the board too. With "5 up" and shallow retraces we "may" be in a bullish few days at least. Certainly no interest in selling so far today.
ReplyDeleteIt 'is' and expanding diagonal. It could be 'ending' rather than 'leading' as all diagonals.
DeleteES broke the first up fractal back, and nearing the 78.6% 'deep retrace'.
ReplyDeleteIn the overnight session we sure an impressive recovery in the futures but if one looks at the cash market stocks haven't recovered very much at all.
ReplyDeleteMilan: rally high 22358, crash low 20614, today's close 20654.
Madrid: rally high 9450, crash low 8694, today's close 8718.
DAX: rally high 12656, crash low 11566, today's close 11589. (Futures got to 11341)
CAC: rally high 5673, crash low 5238, today's close 5236.
Sydney: rally high 6878, crash low 6441, today's close 6480.
DOW: rally high 27400, crash low 25513, current price 25800.
SPX: rally high 3028, crash low 2822, current price 2667.
CAC: rally high 5673, crash low 5236, today's close 5238.
DeleteSPX: rally high 3028, crash low 2822, current price 2867.
ES 15-min: second green (up) fractal has broken.
ReplyDeleteFWIW cash now starting to look like 3 fairly equal waves. Opens another door particularly if your looking for a 4th wave. Those 3 waves "could" develop into "a of iv". No strong conviction but possible. Looking at the cash numbers around the globe most stocks are still languishing badly. That could possibly mean 2 things. 1. We are still in the middle of a serious stock debacle or: 2. Stocks are now going rally several per cent.
DeleteNow too far for a 4th IMO. Pretty much put that idea to bed. ES approaching the trendline from underneath, another 15 or so points to go. My guess says it will go through it pretty easily. B wave bounce or move to new highs? Billy says B wave. B for Billy.
DeleteInside day so far on daily S&P 500 and almost back inside the lower bb. https://invst.ly/bkv06
ReplyDeleteSo far, up wave is 1.382 of the down wave to 11:35.
ReplyDeleteChart below. Can't find another way to count, just yet.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/bkvmv
TJ
ES price just overlapped the 09:30 am ET, up wave. Today's high 'might' be the b wave of a flat, or a portion of a triangle.
Delete107 ES points in just 19 hours. Should get a speeding ticket for that. ET, just thinking, if the highs are in and we don't find 5 waves down for wave i then this cannot be c of 4, correct?
ReplyDelete5% on ndx from overnight low.
DeleteThere is a new post for the next day.
ReplyDelete