ES Daily Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close: Yin-Yang Candle
Market Posture: Neutral-to-Negative and Probing Waves
Daily Swing Line: Neutral (set up for either higher or lower)
Daily Bias: Down (Settle Under 18-day SMA) for fourth day
Today we counted upward this exacting diagonal structure on the ES five-minute chart and posted it in real time. First, here's the chart as it was shown at 03:22 PM ET today.
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| ES - 5 min - Diagonal |
We chose this count because any other would not respect the 0 - 2 trend line off the low. In other words, if you draw a line from 0 - b, it would cut off a third wave if you tried to call that the third wave. Also, in the futures - not in cash - there is an overlap with the down wave at 11:00 and what is labeled the a wave up. Then, in the after hours, price began to move lower after a near-equal retrace of the highs. But, it was enough to say that wave ((4)) can not be misplaced - because a downward wave would now be longer than wave ((2)) which is not allowed in a diagonal.
But, here's the problem: the very same wave structure can either be a leading diagonal or an ending diagonal! If it is an ending diagonal, then we proposed a plan for that in yesterday's comments. Let me provide a reminder.
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| ES - 2 Hr - Declining Trend Line Broke Upward |
We said yesterday that for a wave ii location to be where it was shown, the dotted magenta trend line would have to hold. It did not. There's no "fudging it", no "only slightly over it". It just didn't hold plain and simple.
If there is a big gap down tonight (not saying there will be) and the low of alt: x is taken out, then we also posted that the downward structure could be a much larger diagonal which I sketched out in real time and you can find at this LINK.
But if the shorter-term diagonal is leading, then a number of upward counts is possible. Why such seeming indecision? It should be clear by now, it is not a problem with wave counting methodology. When a person can chart a wave to the 5-minute bar, then the method is pretty much spot on. No, as you can see from the chart, below, we are still doing battle at "the line in the sand", at the 18-day SMA, touching it again today. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing in. People are on vacation. We are in the middle of a price range. Pricing is both whippy and choppy.
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| ES - Daily - Close Near 18-day SMA |
There is nothing sacred about a wave count when one recognizes the larger context. So, each day will be examined for what it is until there is some additional clarity.
Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
Joe - Looks like your alt x played out.
ReplyDeleteFor learning purposes, how would you pivot to a different count if ES were to go above the previously claimed wave 2 high at 2944? It almost has in DOW futures.
Thx
The big 1-2 i-ii count, is it broken yet?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/519SpNYw
SPX: as of the opening price today, you can now draw a 0-(ii) TL that is not broken by i-(i) which was the expanding diagonal that Joe counted.
ReplyDeleteI don't know if Joe considers that a rule or guideline, but if a rule, the (i)-(ii) count is now valid.
As far as the count for wave (ii), it can't be a triangle as wave 2's can't be triangles and the "barrier" is on the wrong side. Maybe W-X-Y, zz-flat-zz?
Please let me know if any above is inaccurate. Would like to contribute more but do not wish to waste space on the page!
correction to first line: as of high, not opening.
DeleteMay still be a triangle, but that would make this hard to count correction a B wave. If it is a triangle, the e-wave probably completes soon.
Deletehere's chart
Deletehttp://tos.mx/k9W0Qa
Proposed flat of zz-flat-zz may not satisfy rules for a flat. Looks to me better as a tripple ZZ for a possible second wave.
Delete@KS .. comments on trades and trade ideas not allowed. Deleted.
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone else see a possible B wave triangle?
ReplyDeleteYes.
DeleteOops! I missed your above comment Tom. I had doubts about the ED as the "throw-over" was quite weak.
DeleteE wave of a triangle I think fits the bill as you suggested.
This is all I see at the moment. Very open and flexible here.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/by72w
TJ
..now into wave four (or worse) with pretty exact timing...to the bar.
DeleteDown wave was inside of 1.618 (using SPY); looks like three-wave ((A)) wave, to the low. Up wave 'may' go over the top but is not required too.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/vekoxx2Q/
TJ
as i warned a new high above your a wave from low would create an impulse...which you are now counting. and also said getting a zig zag after that wpuld be difficult. wait and see. definitely an example of a count which predicted something in my opinion
Delete@marc -- can also have been a smaller and less proportional version - of a 'pre-terminal' triangle.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/by93v
I am not emotionally invested in any count at this point - just neutral, counting waves and probing from time to time.
TJ
as am i
Deletethanks
Move off high only three waves and entirely lacking triangle completion conviction. Looks like at least one more high...
ReplyDeleteYep, as I said yesterday could see WXY pattern up to gap fill at approx 2953 (Aug 2nd). Coincides with 61.8 fib at approximately that level (2950-2955) and the 150MA on 2h time frame. It might be more advantageous to look at it from this point view instead changing counts every 2 hours.
DeleteToday, (so far) we have stopped exactly at that red downward slopping trendline. https://imgur.com/HoA2uvM
Upward (B) wave is now 'at least' 90%, making a flat, expanded flat, or running triangle possible.
ReplyDeleteThere's a new local high.
Delete..now up to 102 candles.
DeleteHere's an update. The market must prove it's case.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/by8v9
TJ
TJ I believe we can rule out the nested 1-2 i-ii count now with the 0-2 trend line violation?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/0HhsUV5q
..yes, I was just going to mention. Good work, C!
DeleteThanks. Seems like the very next possible bear count is whenever this current impulse finishes, to complete a C of Y, with the entirety of Aug action being a larger WXY.
DeleteCould this be Y of 2 or B on the 4hr ES?
ReplyDeleteYes. Just have to see how high they will take it. Or maybe truncate it too.
Delete@BBR .. yes, the downward count is Y of 2, if it stops at ~62%
Delete..but see my comment to @marc at 12:12 pm.
DeleteThx
DeleteDAX already hit the lower TL for iv. Currently at just over 100 10 minute candles.
ReplyDeleteJust fyi - I have 1.382 x ((A)) at 2,833 and 1.62 x ((A)) - for a potential running triangle - at 2,838; price does not 'have to' make it to either of these locations for a ((B)) wave, but it certainly can. Also, of note, 2,838 is the R3 standard daily pivot calculation, i.e. third resistance level.
ReplyDeleteHere's a one-minute chart of the potential ((B)) wave.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/byaf7
TJ
...note than b is longer in time than the prior fourth wave, and should represent the degree change.
DeleteBarring a major reversal, all of the major indices will be closing above the 18 day SMA which is now upward sloping. I'm leaning on the market sloshing around higher through Labor day holiday and conclude wave 2 in SPX futures around 2960-2980 next week. I think some of you may have alluded to this count earlier.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/3Ox0PWv
INDEED!! But being "flexible" is important at this juncture. As discussed yesterday, the 30y bond has been selling off - look to that & XLF for a clue on a reversal for the SPX.
DeleteNot sure how strict the rule of convergence is for running triangles. My experience is that the E wave does tend to over-shoot the trend A-C line by just a tad and that seems to be what we have...
ReplyDeleteI think there is a pretty nice impulse from 2853 cash with extended 1
ReplyDeleteMarket has not made a clean decision yet. Upward ((B)) wave fell short (so far) of the 1.382 - which is okay.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/bybjz
TJ
A new post has been started for the next day.
ReplyDelete