Today made a marginal higher high daily bar, and I said upward wave counting would begin at that point. It is also just the second day of "snap-back towards the line previously violated". The daily chart of the S&P500 shows the most probable count, with about 80:20 probability.
|SP500 Cash Index - Daily - Snap Back Towards the Line|
During many years of looking at the market, a lot of things have been observed. This nice looking retracement back to the 38% Fibonacci zone looks "warm and wonderful", doesn't it? Today again met with that up sloping trend line of resistance. The probability placed on this count is 80:20 for a reason. All it will take is one "progress on China tariffs" tweet, and the upward wave (ii) could extend to 1.618 x a. Where is a? Here is the short term count, below.
|ES Futures - Hourly - Upward Corrective Wave|
Right now the upward c wave is very, very overlapping, and it may only be the start of a diagonal for the c wave. It did make a marginal new high today, but only a marginal new high. In no case may the c wave travel below the low of b (in terms of the invalidation level).
Now is the time for calm, patience and flexibility.
Have a good start to the evening.