It was not an especially good sign for higher prices that the ES E-Mini S&P500 futures made an equal or higher high (regular e-mini's or micro?) in the overnight and then fell off below both the 18-day SMA (line in the sand) and the 100-day SMA. Thus, the bias is down. There are lower highs but higher lows on the chart.
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| ES - Daily - Turned Back by 18-SMA |
If price continues lower, then it is highly possible for the 18-day to cross under the 100-day which has not happened in several months. Many technicians who watch such things would consider that as a negative. That situation has occurred in Crude Oil futures, and in the Dow futures. It has not yet occurred in the NASDAQ 100 (NQ) futures.
The up gap from yesterday's overnight jump has not filled yet. We'll let you know if it does. At this time - if further downside movement occurs - the peak to the farthest right would be wave (ii) so as to preserve the 0 - (ii) trend line guideline that has worked so well in the past.
At this point, upward counting would only resume with a full-on higher high day. Should that occur, there is an odd way a triangle could be made out of these waves, but such a triangle would be better proportioned with a higher high to the 78.6% level of the drop to the current wave (i). Therefore, as an alternate, that triangle will not be counted unless there is a higher high day.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
ET, Looking at my 3 week chart from October of 2011 AO just turned red. If we stay above 0 and start moving back up than I'm going with 3406 area for a target. 5=1, October of 2011 to May of 2015 1059.9 points.
ReplyDeleteWould it be a good idea to use the same chart day in day out so we can see what was correct and what was not?
ReplyDeleteIt would be a messy chart with a lot of cross outs and relabeling. Best to start over fresh each day
DeleteDAX and Nikkei already made a higher highs. Possible to count 5 up here on DAX, but could extend.
ReplyDeleteThere are five-waves up in the over-night futures. But, there are numerous alternatives that all must be considered:
ReplyDelete1. Five waves up to a truncation fifth wave.
2. Five waves up as A of a diagonal
3. Five waves up, but the fifth wave might extend because ((3)) and ((1)) are very close in price.
4. Five wave up which is part of a larger triangle.
Best to "try" to gauge it by the technicals at this time.
TJ
The DOW can be counted as five waves up to a marginal new high.
DeleteFive waves up in channel, and ((3)) > ((1)), but just barely. Be careful that ((5)) doesn't extend.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/bu8nh
TJ
ET, you've thrown me with "a of diagonal". Can you explain why an "abc" diagonal can be located where you suggest? Thanks.
DeleteCould be 5 but may only be 3 waves and working on 4 now. The longer it "hangs around" the more likely a 4th wave (generally). DAX futures have a very nice 2.618 extension at the highs. 'Nother argument for only "3 up".
ReplyDelete.. I can't find alternation that would make it 3.. but I'll keep an eye on it.
DeleteEye-eye skipper.
DeleteThat should be Aye, Aye, matey! :)
DeleteWhat's all the tweeting about? I think they all know there is an upward wave that has stopped (for the time being at the 62% retracement), and they are all scared of what it would mean.
ReplyDelete"President Trump insists the economy is healthy and says the only thing holding U.S. growth back is the Federal Reserve." CNBC
Downward wave is "longer in price" than either ((2)) or ((4)). I think that means that ((5)) can't extend. It does not rule out that the high is A, and a low would be B, say of a diagonal.
ReplyDeleteHere's an update.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/bu92j
TJ
I have a present time bias and that bias is the market should fall, but from a higher level perhaps even 2% higher or more. My bias also says the market should be moderately to quite overbought before it goes down in a big way. Futures and cash are not even overbought on the hourly chart. My bias also says that if in a C wave up then this C wave should eventually bounce all 6 futures indices (YM, ES, NQ, DAX futures, CAX futures and Euro Stoxx 50 futures to countertrend highs. Only the latter 2 have confirmed so far. Bias is not Gospel and can be wrong. It can also be dangerous. I think we close in a downtrend today even after higher highs on YM/ES/NQ. What will my bias say then? i of v of C complete.
ReplyDeletedisagree billy
Deletedown smashes come from oversold conditions
as in stochastic embedded below 20
Doc we're not oversold either.
DeleteHere's an update; wave ((4)) at 0.382? Measurements help reduce, but can not eliminate, bias or opinion.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/buafd
TJ
..and measurements show that wave ((4)) has 'not' been exceeded lower in less time than wave ((5)) took to form. This still suggests a corrective sequence at the moment - perhaps part of a diagonal.
Delete..and measurements show there was clearly a near-equal high which could, of itself, qualify as the .b wave of a b wave. An item to be alert for is if this wave goes 'over the high', then an expanded flat for b might also be possible; not, for sure, possible.
DeleteReminder: FOMC minutes at top of next hour.
ReplyDeleteES first fifteen minute close below lower channel boundary.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/bub7q
TJ
@Joe
ReplyDeleteAny news about the book you were writing?
Will it ever be published?
..waiting for two things to fall into place.
DeleteI did not know you were writing a book. I will buy it when it hits the shelf. Thanks for you work and your willness to teach it.
DeleteDown to area of prior fourth wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/bubkl
TJ
The sidewaysness of the market has allowed ES to cross the 0-2 line. If this is a 4th wave that is fair enough. However YM and DAX futures have still not hit that line which lies about 0.15% below those indices and is rising. So a little more price weakness and/or sidewaysness will get the same 0-2 line contact for YM and DAX futures. Perhaps this explains the recent price action and what the markets are waiting for.
DeleteA new post has been started for the next day.
ReplyDelete