It was not an especially good sign for higher prices that the ES E-Mini S&P500 futures made an equal or higher high (regular e-mini's or micro?) in the overnight and then fell off below both the 18-day SMA (line in the sand) and the 100-day SMA. Thus, the bias is down. There are lower highs but higher lows on the chart.
|ES - Daily - Turned Back by 18-SMA|
If price continues lower, then it is highly possible for the 18-day to cross under the 100-day which has not happened in several months. Many technicians who watch such things would consider that as a negative. That situation has occurred in Crude Oil futures, and in the Dow futures. It has not yet occurred in the NASDAQ 100 (NQ) futures.
The up gap from yesterday's overnight jump has not filled yet. We'll let you know if it does. At this time - if further downside movement occurs - the peak to the farthest right would be wave (ii) so as to preserve the 0 - (ii) trend line guideline that has worked so well in the past.
At this point, upward counting would only resume with a full-on higher high day. Should that occur, there is an odd way a triangle could be made out of these waves, but such a triangle would be better proportioned with a higher high to the 78.6% level of the drop to the current wave (i). Therefore, as an alternate, that triangle will not be counted unless there is a higher high day.
Have an excellent start to the evening.