I posted this count earlier in the day in the comments section. Yesterday, I had posted that a larger triangle was 'possible' with the up wave on the tariff news. Today, that counts looks a lot less likely. It is not impossible, but I am not counting upward until or unless there is a higher high day.
|ES E-Mini S&P500 Futures - 4 Hr - Downward Count|
The count is based on 1) the location of the 0.618 retracement, 2) the lower low today, and 3) the Treasury Dept branding of China as a "currency manipulator" which made the (v)th wave down on the night of Aug 5th - 6th.
The futures kept falling in the after-market to close on the lows. So far, there is not even sign of retracement. I was looking for a good reversal candle with follow-through that stuck. There was only one reversal candle today (hourly or better), and there was no confirmation candle.
People have criticized the turn-about in short-term outlook. Go ahead. Gripe all you care to. I said a larger triangle was 'possible', not for certain; not even "highly likely". Today the poor German GDP took the wind out of the sails overnight. So. So far, we have 1) Hong Kong problems, 2) German GDP problems, 3) Deutch Bank laying off 18,000 people and creating a "bad bank" to house problem assets, and 4) maybe problems in Italy. It looks like the problems are creeping in from overseas again. Beyond that, everyone knows that U.S. debt is exploding with $1 Trillion deficits, and the U.S. Debt clock now over $22.5 Trillion.
All of you who read this blog know I have been looking to count a top. This Intermediate (B) wave has been among the most challenging to count I have ever encountered. Several of the waves can be interpreted multiple ways. That is the nature of almost all B waves. As I said before, I am not with the people counting an Intermediate (4)th wave, or an Intermediate (5) of a Primary Vth wave, or a Primary III wave. Let's see what those web-sites have to say for themselves this weekend - if anything.
As far as the griping. I can handle quite a bit of it. I recognize a B wave for what it is: a very hard to count wave. So, if you want to make fun of me - good-natured or not, then have at it. Some times I laugh, too, at what the market does. But, then again, if you keep it up without offering suggestions for improvement or your very own brand of "magic methodology", then you might expect this blog to take a new approach.
That's right. There is no reason why comments on this blog can't be held in a "pending queue" waiting for moderation. I'll read each one of them when I 'git a round to it', and then decide if I even want to publish your pearl of wisdom. In case it's not clear, I am trying to show you Elliott Wave for what it is, a sometimes & often useful and descriptive discipline. But Elliott Wave is not a pre-determined, pre-ordained, and fail-safe methodology. If it was, we'd all be rich beyond our wildest dreams by now. But, there are things about it I still don't understand yet and issues am trying to resolve because they are not clarified by the so-called experts in the field. Oh, it turns out every once in a while they get surprised too. There are even some things they have dead wrong. And, there is a big difference between describing an Elliott Wave count, and operating a "news-reading algorithm" that can react to published news reports with the mega-millions of "smart money" before a human can even finish the end of the sentence or paragraph of news. These are two different things. I am trying to do the former, not the latter.
So, what's it going to be? As the world gets more hostile, are you going to join the people who oppose the dark forces; are you going to try to be a teacher, and a helper, too? Or, are you here to grind your ax, and work your own (maybe twisted) agenda, or just complain for the fun of it?
I'll be gauging how you think this should go over the course of the next few days. If you have not complained, please ignore much of the above...
...and have a good start to the evening.