Wednesday, August 14, 2019

Best at this Time

I posted this count earlier in the day in the comments section. Yesterday, I had posted that a larger triangle was 'possible' with the up wave on the tariff news. Today, that counts looks a lot less likely. It is not impossible, but I am not counting upward until or unless there is a higher high day.

ES E-Mini S&P500 Futures - 4 Hr - Downward Count

The count is based on 1) the location of the 0.618 retracement, 2) the lower low today, and 3) the Treasury Dept branding of China as a "currency manipulator" which made the (v)th wave down on the night of Aug 5th - 6th.

The futures kept falling in the after-market to close on the lows. So far, there is not even sign of retracement. I was looking for a good reversal candle with follow-through that stuck. There was only one reversal candle today (hourly or better), and there was no confirmation candle.

People have criticized the turn-about in short-term outlook. Go ahead. Gripe all you care to. I said a larger triangle was 'possible', not for certain; not even "highly likely". Today the poor German GDP took the wind out of the sails overnight. So. So far, we have 1) Hong Kong problems, 2) German GDP problems, 3) Deutch Bank laying off 18,000 people and creating a "bad bank" to house problem assets, and 4) maybe problems in Italy. It looks like the problems are creeping in from overseas again. Beyond that, everyone knows that U.S. debt is exploding with $1 Trillion deficits, and the U.S. Debt clock now over $22.5 Trillion. 

All of you who read this blog know I have been looking to count a top. This Intermediate (B) wave has been among the most challenging to count I have ever encountered. Several of the waves can be interpreted multiple ways. That is the nature of almost all B waves. As I said before, I am not with the people counting an Intermediate (4)th wave, or an Intermediate (5) of a Primary Vth wave, or a Primary III wave. Let's see what those web-sites have to say for themselves this weekend - if anything.

As far as the griping. I can handle quite a bit of it. I recognize a B wave for what it is: a very hard to count wave. So, if you want to make fun of me - good-natured or not, then have at it. Some times I laugh, too, at what the market does. But, then again, if you keep it up without offering suggestions for improvement or your very own brand of "magic methodology", then you might expect this blog to take a new approach.

New Approach?

That's right. There is no reason why comments on this blog can't be held in a "pending queue" waiting for moderation. I'll read each one of them when I 'git a round to it', and then decide if I even want to publish your pearl of wisdom. In case it's not clear, I am trying to show you Elliott Wave for what it is, a sometimes & often useful and descriptive discipline. But Elliott Wave is not a pre-determined, pre-ordained, and fail-safe methodology. If it was, we'd all be rich beyond our wildest dreams by now. But, there are things about it I still don't understand yet and issues am trying to resolve because they are not clarified by the so-called experts in the field. Oh, it turns out every once in a while they get surprised too. There are even some things they have dead wrong. And, there is a big difference between describing an Elliott Wave count, and operating a "news-reading algorithm" that can react to published news reports with the mega-millions of "smart money" before a human can even finish the end of the sentence or paragraph of news. These are two different things. I am trying to do the former, not the latter.

So, what's it going to be? As the world gets more hostile, are you going to join the people who oppose the dark forces; are you going to try to be a teacher, and a helper, too? Or, are you here to grind your ax, and work your own (maybe twisted) agenda, or just complain for the fun of it?

I'll be gauging how you think this should go over the course of the next few days. If you have not complained, please ignore much of the above...

...and have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe


64 comments:

  1. TJ - great count! I was surprised by the (y) truncation, but that truncation and the strength of this move down confirms we are in wave ((iii)) down now, IMO. I sure hope this blog will not need moderation. The free counts posted by you, Trader Joe, are better than most, if not all the paid service counts I have seen. Elliott wave is not an exact science, and corrections are almost always hard to count. Thanks TJ!

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  2. TJ you're still one of the best E-wavers out there. And when you do it for free it's an amazing bargain :)

    What I've seen some other EW services do is not to post less likely counts, or even speculate about them at all until it's supported with more evidence. It cuts way down on potential confusion.

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  3. Joe thanks for all your hard work. I've been learning EW for 15 years. Actually thought I knew it reasonably well until I ran into your blog. You've taught me I didn't know anything and your space and time view of price movement is ground breaking. As one comment said today sometimes it is eerily accurate sometimes not. Always worthwhile. Thanks keep up the work.

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  4. All EW followers know B waves are tough, because they can even make new highs and still be a counter-trend move in a broader correction. Then we have to problem of the lack of clear impulse waves for many months now. So you'll get no complaint from me regarding what surprise the markets pull here, as the broader pattern remains clear as mud. The job of EW technicians in to find the most likely pattern, and once one of those prove to be correct, offer a clear(er) path going forward. In complete patterns, or patterns that morph into something else, are tough for all of us, since they offer only confusion when clarity is demanded. The pattern posted tonight offers a clear path, if we see more confirming it's the correct pattern. That's not a failure of EW. That's reality. There maybe more confusion to come, or the breakdown will accelerate to deliver a clearer bear path going forward. So thanks for the effort and skill put into this EW blog, for, I for one, need all the help I can get.

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  5. Ghee..yuk! Now Prechter's Elliott wave triangle for Intermediate (4) has ((w))-((x))-((y)) in BOTH the B and the D legs! This is crazy. He knows better than that and publishes it anyway! Only one leg of a triangle is usually a complex zigzag. And, it represents very poor alternation in a corrective form.

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    1. Good that he doesn't copyright his counts so you can share it freely here though.

      Or does he?

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  6. (a) in place of (w), (b) in place of today's (i)

    Now (c) up to complete ((ii))

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    1. 'possible' although I'm not counting upward until there is a higher high day. That mean's the count you are proposing and the count upward would begin at the same time - if we get over today's high. Have to see what retraces along the way look like.

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    2. Elliott_Trader, are we stinginess some sort of ending diagonal that could take cash down into or even just below the 2829 subdivide?

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  7. ET, we could really use an updated look at the long term. It seems to me like an '87 style crash could be quite possible for ((iii)) with full INT C finished by year end.

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  8. Joe, I find your site very helpful. If you need to moderate comments, don't hold back. Thanks for all your hard work!

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    1. Not a bad idea to make this blog "moderated".
      Too many amateur chartists that never read any book about EW.
      Too many counts asked to be watched that don't respect any rule.
      Too may questions about "degree" asked and re-asked and re-asked again.
      Moderation would help to keep this blog as much clean as possible.

      One request (I wonder if this is possible in the "reply section" on Google Blogs) is the possibility to post images directly, and not through investly or imgur.
      That would help a lot in understanding charts, without copying and pasting.

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    2. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
  9. When I look at SPX I see it flapping around in a 4 of i of 3(probably complete). Around the net the common view is 5 down done now rally for ii of 3 but I don't see 5 down clearly at all. A case can be made for a 4 in the ES well. Again with the low coming as a "b wave" then 5 up spike to complete the "c wave". Here the relationship is around 1.50 between waves a & b. On the YM it is 1.78. Neither are out of the ball park. It may be that the "first" 5 up has participants waiting for a second "5 up" whereas the first 5 up was actually the only one in this case. If I'm wrong then 2834 really has to hold second time around as b of ii of 3 from where c of ii of 3 would be expected to launch.

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    1. On second thoughts it cannot be a "4" the way I described it because that would be a degree violation "if" ET's impulse down count is correct. There is a degree issue in any case with this 4 as far as time concerned (not price) unless the higher 4 was a triangle. Sorry for the confusion.

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  10. Now you don't know if they are painting in an extended wave or ending one. You'll have to play the lotto and hold overnight to see is my guess for today.

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  11. Russell 2000 cash daily exceeding it's June low. https://invst.ly/brirn

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  12. Since Russell 2000 didn’t reach the 90% level so far from ath might we call that 31/7 top 2 instead of B unlike spx?

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  13. Complex correction (ii) appears to be over now. We are heading down in (iii) of ((iii)).

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    1. Nope. They won't give it away during cash hours, yet. Still time to bounce around.

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  14. Time to roll out a tweet or Dudley

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  15. Since there is radio silence from ET, I thought i'd show a 5 wave impulse higher on the RUT on the 1 min
    https://imgur.com/qfKHe08

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  16. On a 15 minute chart, incredible how the S&P 500 futures are respecting the 18ma and 100ma. https://invst.ly/brjb8

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  17. Maybe SPX had to have that mid-afternoon for its wave 5 of i of 3 and now it looks like 5 down this week. For ES the same decline would work in well as b of ii of 3. So off the afternoon low we good be looking at ii of 3 in cash and futures. Interesting and perhaps explains the somewhat weak action because the market knows what comes next (lol).

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    1. RUT made a lower low AFTER today's pre-cash market spike. Wonder if that's another b wave and a general indicator on just how weak and vulnerable equities are at the moment.

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    2. Whether not we can count the long drop from SPX 3029 is somewhat less important at the moment. Was it a big "A wave" or was it an impulse? Their is a question mark now over the relatively small wave iv on that initial drop. It was longer in points but shorter in time of the drop that happened this week. Other indices are hard to count as an impulse on the first big drop as well.

      Nevertheless what is hard to argue against is we have the big drop, call it "A" or 1, then a healthy retracement and now, this week, what very much looks like another 5 down. So if the initial was only "A" and the retracement was "B", we now have i of C down looking for ii of C up with iii of C to follow. Still a very bearish situation.

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  18. Thanks Joe, for all your time and effort and I would like you to know you are very much appreciated.

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  19. Near term bull count and near term bear count (found one).
    https://imgur.com/EuQmaXR

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  20. ET can this be the triangle you're looking for? or even a smaller one?
    https://invst.ly/brqfr

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  21. Maybe just completed flat on ES

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  22. Ugliest waves you could ever wish to see but wants to go higher nonetheless. Futures don't look dissimilar (fractal?) to the big rally from the December 2018 lows.

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  23. I m not sure where the s p going...ii of C...?

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  24. Still not at a 0.618 retrace, yet.

    https://invst.ly/bryv5

    TJ

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    1. today a wave i and ii of C targeting the 2980-3000 level before slide resumes for real?

      If, instead, a big slide starts on Monday then today's sideways churn post opening pop would look eerily like Tuesday.

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    2. I suspect it may go higher. The purpose of second waves at this degeree is to convince the crowd the prior trend has resumed, hence my own expectation of the higher 0.786 retrace and intra-day breach of the psychologically important 2900 round number.

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  25. I think we need one more high ES

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  26. Seeing a few shoots around the place. We've had essentially a double bottom in the cash market DOW/SPX. So my guess is the rally high now was an expanded b wave and this week's low the c wave (see my chart posted earlier on this thread). So likely we now take out the rally highs, possibly 2955-2970. That'll be a b wave. Then down again with a c wave. Yesterday I thought ES was in ii of c. It could still be but that's now my alt. I don't think the market is ready to go straight down in a heavy c wave. But that will come after a reset. Just wondering whether that will be it i.e. a-b-c or will it mark only a larger "A". Typical 4th wave unpredictability.

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    1. IF ES is in a c wave travelling towards the 78.6% retracement level of the whole decline it should be relatively easy to track. Now we are somewhere in iii of c up. Today's rally hit the 123.6 extension of i of c up and the 61.8 of the decline. Thus the market is keeping its cards close to its chest as this could still go either way. A trendline on NQ I am watching did not break upward either after several hits but definitely could next week. What I'd really like to know is whether DAX and CAC have completed 1 wave down this week or are in 1-2, i-ii situation. If it is the former then we should expect a decent counter trend rally. Once again the waters are murky.

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    2. Looking again at the YM and ES I see some potential running waves since yesterday's close. If correct this is very bullish. Preliminary count with a gap up on Monday would be 3 of iii of C up.

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  27. DAX may have put in 5 waves down from Jul 25 highs. Something to be wary of.

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  28. ET I very much enjoy and learn from Your comments..seriously Joe we need you on this Blog...don t let a few destroy all you set out to accomplish!

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  29. Joe, you are doing a Great job counting waves. I agree with what most People above has stated. I do still have djia 15000 ish and a 4th C wave down. I Base this on fractals. I also have 29-32 crash as wave A down and from there We are in a huge B wave ending 30 or so years from now. This bear market Will take The markets down 40+ percent but less than 50%. Judging on silver, The top should be in and silver should spike up to 22 usd followed by a deep fast drop down to 17.9 before continuing The spike up. That should correspond to continuing soft stock markets followed by final sharp bear market rally in a couple of weeks. Your count looks spot on!!! There Will always be stupid/ignorant people around.

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    1. This bear market should take us down 80 to 90%. Anyone noticed how the Nikkei topped at 38,000 back in 1988 and it's almost 50% lower today?!? The BOJ bought 80% of the ETF market in Japan, nothing is working to make their markets go up! Lol. We are entering the same demographics Japan has currently. The bond market is predicting little to no growth over the next 30 years. No amount of QE or negative interest rates can make up for market cycles and demographics.

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  30. keep it up; every one has his own opinion anyway; it's good to keep loyal to your own way.

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  31. Target for (c), ((ii)) = 2948.

    Some daily indicators point to a bigger rally. If bear, should stall probably by Tues or Wed.

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    1. Yep, We got 0-2 line problems for this being ii.

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  32. Daily ES price is now trapped between 18-day SMA (red), and 100-day SMA (green).

    https://invst.ly/bt2t2

    TJ

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    1. With about 100+ candles on the chart, ES 30-min is currently in an up channel. Cash might be trying to fill the close-to-open gap at the 2,926.32 level.

      https://invst.ly/bt2z0

      TJ

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  33. Since hourly cash has 'twice' made the 90% level downward, perhaps it is trying to tell us it is making a large, complex, flat wave like the following as (a), (b), (c).

    https://invst.ly/bt3i1

    TJ

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  34. S&P500 cash now trades over that 2,926.32 close that was part of the down gap on 14-Aug, but because of today's gap up, price does not officially 'close' the gap. In other words, there is "an island bottom".

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    1. Cash is over the prior 2,926.32 close that was part of the down gap.

      https://invst.ly/bt4he

      TJ

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  35. Futures didn’t reach 90% level

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    1. ..and futures have an overlap that cash doesn't too.

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    2. I think that means the alternate way to count it is as (w), (x), (y) but with similar consequences: a downward wave would begin after this upward wave.

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    3. I agree the move up counter-trend. Absolutely amazed at all the bullish EW counts and calls for new highs. This is one of the things that has really discouraged me from expending much greater effort to learn the method, no dis-respect to Joe. If these guys who are supposed to be experts (some of whom have literally "written the book"!) can be so miserably wrong about market calls that even a piker like me can plainly see, what chance of a snow-ball in you-know-where would a dilettante like me have of learning to use the method in any useful capacity??! Thankfully there are a few folk out there, Joe included, who generally make sense amidst all the EW chaos..

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    4. The nested 1-2 i-ii from Dec lows seems popular.

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    5. ET, do you still have those bullish counts (mentioned above) as your alternatives, or do you think they are now invalidated?

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  36. From Joe's cash count of earlier today, it looks like it's trying to mount the 5th wave to finish (c) of the larger inverted flat.

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    1. Although that 5th wave may have been hit at 13:20 today at 2931.

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  37. A new post has been started for the next day.

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