It's hard to make too much of today, other than what it was. When you look at the daily chart of the ES E-Mini S&P500 Futures, all they did was snap-back towards the line that was previously violated.
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| ES - Daily - Snap Back Towards the Line |
The problem is there is no clear information that the rally is over. Numerically, the futures settled back inside the lower daily Bollinger Band, which 'resets to zero' the consecutive number of days under the lower band.
And, when one looks at cash, one does not see the 50 point decline in last night's overnight session, or the overnight reversal, so it is again hard to believe it for the best guidance. Cash 'can' be counted as three waves up from the low to this point, but, again, there is no clear information that the rally is over. Sometimes really sharp and violent waves like this one are the start of a triangle, particularly after a long steep drop.
We'll have to wait to see some retrace waves, and how prices react to the lower trend line before making more firm conclusions. But, as said before, there is no upward counting until a higher high day is made. That has not happened yet. Today was actually a "lower low" day! The swing line is still down and daily prices are still under the 18-day SMA, and so have a negative bias. Further, there is no critical upward overlap, yet.
However, to those who say "what a surprise" today was, we clearly outlined the probability of closing outside the band in Friday's post. No surprise here.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
ET is this what you mean regarding the tripple combination it all depends on if it does new high or new low first? To keep degree between the (X) waves it can't make a new low because it's already bigger than first (X)? With a new low the A wave of second (X) would be bigger than all of first (X)? Also it can absolutely not travel below first (X)?
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/blp50
Wouldn't it be great alternation between the "(X)"s as of now? Second (X) bigger in price and much faster? Just like between a 2 and a 4..
Maybe someone have showed this but this is great relationship if we measure from the Trump tweet that might truncated the last C up of (Y) and caused another (X)..
Deletehttps://invst.ly/blpm0
ES 15-minutes: prices are back to the area of a prior fourth wave in futures.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/blxp7
TJ
..now below that fourth wave; watching for a larger triangle or fifth wave lower.
DeleteA up, flat B, C complete pre market
DeleteAt the opening drop YM bounced "right off the 50". ES & NQ "mid 40s".
ReplyDeleteYM blew thru the 62, ES & NQ between the 50 & 62.
DeleteDOW cash new low for the move. Not so SPX and NDX. So possible flat on the DOW or worse. 4th wave option back in focus perhaps. DAX cash new marginal low. Perhaps another flat or worse. Positive divergences however starting to form.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/blyp9
ReplyDeleteThat looks like a bullish i off the lows (ended at breakdown of triangle,) then A-B-C (with C ending at the low in the chart.) If, a surprise and major rally about to begin.
DeleteNow there is overlap on the first wave.
ReplyDeleteMaybe 2/B bottom finished
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/bm0q8
very possible ; )
DeletePrice is currently in a bit of "no man's land". Here are some lines and channels. Need to break the lower channel line for a triangle, and downward. Need to break the upper dotted line for a larger C wave up, say to 2,900. Need to break the upper channel line for the larger impulse up.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/bm20v
TJ
Down wave currently 'longer in time' than up wave. Let's see what it means.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/bm7kd
TJ
Now in vicinity of prior fourth wave, where ((5)) = ((3)) is the Fibonacci relationship, and with > 38% retrace, so far.
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TJ
Another lower low in a contracting shape, so far.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/bm879
TJ
..possible to consider 1) contracting diagonal, 2) double-ZZ, 3) triple zigzag. Really hard to tell.
Delete..now breaking well above upper declining trend line (the blue one)
DeleteNow that price has broken the declining (blue) trend line, trading below this recent low could start a triangle lower. Trading above the high, a larger impulse.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/bm8kd
TJ
well, heck; now there is a potential diagonal down, and a potential diagonal up. One of 'em is lying.
DeleteHere is the potential diagonal, up. Don't blame me, blame the markets.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/bm9xg
TJ
..now over the high; down wave is double-zz.
Delete..five waves up from the low of the diagonal to a marginal cash S&P500 local high.
DeleteHere's what I see, so far.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/bmcc2
TJ
..this upward wave, can extend as a diagonal, itself, if it wants - based on measurements in ES.
DeleteAm starting to have a close look at the 4th wave option. Lots of indices struggling in a zone near their lows after the big crash (wave iii?). The extended AH decline in futures paints a bit of a different picture however the cash market looks much better in terms of a possible "4". Certainly 2 and 4 are in proportion with alternation. The fly in the ointment is the possible wave iii down where I fail to find 5 internal waves for that drop. Can't do it Sally.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRuV2qFtRcg
what if it's five waves down as i, and a 38 - 50% retrace for ii?
DeleteIf my fib counts are right.... another one to note would be a .618 retrace if it is i down in futures:
Delete1. the 5 waves up from 2776 to 2883 would be an a
2. then at the .618 retrace of what might be i down would be about 2930 then a = c up for the retrace
3. this retrace would also fill the gap on the cash side if it happens tomorrow
Just some thoughts.
ES futures back to the overnight high.
ReplyDeleteBottoming tails on daily S&P 500 futures and now back inside the lower bb with slow stoch. turning up from oversold. https://invst.ly/bmcws
ReplyDeleteThe low S&P @845AM was 2823.25
ReplyDeleteHigh at 955AM 2867.75 for 44.25 pts for an A
Low B @ 1120 2844.5
High @ 1435 PM 2890.5 46 pts
a=c of a C
The correction complete????
ET, five waves down as i, and a 38 - 50% retrace for ii? I can see 5 waves down if we break up the drop from 3014 as iii, iv & v. Plausible on the Wall Street indices. That means iii down is about to start? Hard to correlate with some of the European indices. DAX and CAC would suit and here I am counting the DAX with a truncation. But the likes of Milan and Madrid one needs an intergalactic telescope to find anything that resembles a ii. Nothing but very small bounces all the way down.
ReplyDeleteDAX still has the proper form to be in iv. If 3 down starts in US that just means v down in DAX will probably be an extended fifth wave.
DeleteThanks C. Could be right. I'm just not sure the market is ready for a iii in the very near term. It got quite oversold on the first drop but oscillators are gradually crawling up. BTW, Sydney's put a quintuple bottom and still bouncing around the bottom..
DeleteA new post has been started for the next day.
ReplyDelete