The so-called "Smart Money", the funds and banks with accounts large enough to move markets, saw a "slow news weekend", and gapped even the ES futures up to start the week (red circle). Prices hit the 18-day SMA (red curve), and promptly stalled for the remainder of the day.
 |
| ES - Daily - Gap Up to 18-Day SMA |
In doing so, prices also gapped above the 100-day SMA (green curve). Prices traded between the 100-day and the 18-day SMA's for the bulk of the cash session. Futures gaps tend to get filled a bit more quickly than cash gaps. The last such one that filled is shown as the black circle and it was called out in real time when it filled.
With today's up move, it became less likely that a (i)-(ii)-i-ii move, downward, occurred. That is because a line drawn from the top to (ii) would now cut off part of wave (iii), lower. However, it could be that wave (ii) is just becoming more complex and is extending in time. This up move has already consumed more daily bars than the down move, so, it should be corrective.
We'll provide more detail on the count once we see if we get a "turn-around Tuesday" or not.
Have a good start to the week.
TraderJoe
thanks joe
ReplyDeleteSir Joe as you know a lot about EW - I have one simple in a triangle (symmetrical one and not a expanding triangle) can C break where A had finished, in other words can C exceed A wave. Or C has to contained by A termination point. thanks
ReplyDeleteIn a contracting triangle C must be shorter than A, and so must not exceed the termination point of wave A.
DeleteCash - should finish 4 of C this morning, then a small 5 of C to SPX ~2948, max 2960, complete late today / early tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteOn the way up in C, 1 was the extended wave, and the gaps were in 3 of 1 and 3 of 3.
Now, with between 120 - 160 candles on the chart (currently 148), the ES 30-min is beginning to show a characteristic fourth wave action. If, for some reason, a fourth and fifth wave do not complete successfully, then it is possible to see the up movement as ending in the overnight with a truncation at the red asterisk.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/btrq2
If the truncation occurs, then the count to the high is the alternate (w)-(x)-(y).
TJ
ES price now in contact with lower trend channel boundary.
DeleteIdeally I wanted 4 of C to be 2900 and even better much lower support of 2890.before taking off to 2955 region. I still think market will try to find that minor bottom today.
ReplyDeleteCould be leading diagonal from overnight high, or finished C of flat 4 this morning.
ReplyDeleteHere's an update. The retrace upward is already greater than 62%, suggesting that wave four was a shallow 23.6% downward wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/btt9z
TJ
Rejected at the 76% retrace. Trying to confirm the LD maybe..
ReplyDeleteTesting the lower channel line again.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/btw4g
TJ
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteSP500 cash has new lower low; futures not (yet).
ReplyDeleteDOW cash and YM have the lower low, too.
DeleteES weekly gap close and the 38.2% retrace are situated in close proximity i.e. around 2891. Might be a 4th wave target. YM weekly gap close and 38.2% are also in close proximity. Would require a similar percentage move lower in ES and YM to reach those potential targets. ES, YM, NQ, DAX futures, CAC futures and EuroStoxx 50 futures all appear to have 5 waves up off Friday's low. After a 45 point ES retracement all 6 have since managed to rally between 1.618 and 2.000 of the initial 5 waves up. So all now working off some of this move is still quite plausible as a iv of C across the board. Ultimately a move above the bounce-to-date high of SPX 2943.31 should be the expectation of v of C assuming the market is still in a C wave rally. Currently there is not enough evidence to suggest otherwise.
ReplyDeleteJoe, since you mentioned the 0-2 TL, I noticed on SPX that if the ATH to 8/5 low is (i), then it's impossible to draw a 0-(ii) TL that isn't broken by i-(i), the expanding diagonal.
ReplyDeleteI'm away from home, so can't double check the book before I post, but I believe that breaks a Neely rule. I didn't know if you considered that a guideline, especially considering the rare expanding diagonal formation of i-(i).
Anyway would have to move up or sideways for a few days to allow a 0-(ii) TL that isn't broken by i-(i).
The sneak under channel like 4's do?
ReplyDeletegold may be working on a triangle which would line up with a flush in ES.
DeleteES futures went through the low; about 5-min before the close.
ReplyDeleteLooks weak unless this is 5 of contracting ED.
DeleteThe Elliott Wave Oscillator on the futures is more than -50% of the prior peak. That tends to suggest a fourth wave is 'not' forming properly.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/btxgy
TJ
Not much in the way of alternation either. So a triangle might fix that reset the EWO much closer to the zero line.
DeleteA new post has been started for the next day.
ReplyDelete