Yesterday, I published a chart - intentionally again trying to see if anyone is paying attention to degree labeling. It was a test. No one is paying attention. Few are challenging. I even gave you a clear clue in the write up. I said, that "I would add the note that since ((1)) is slightly longer than a, then a 1-2-i-ii from the low would seem to violate degree labeling."
But, therefore that also means that as a sub-wave of an ending diagonal, then ((1)) of an ending diagonal c wave would also violate degree labeling. No one is paying attention. Few people get it - or at least no one says so after 24-hrs. Further, I published the ALT labels. I did that for a reason. The ALT labels are the correct ones because of the degree labeling requirements.
The degree labeling interpretation leaves room only for a fifth wave up that is shorter than wave ((3)), because wave ((3)) is shorter than wave ((1)), and/or an ending diagonal fifth wave of c (not required).
C'mon people ... thinking caps on.
Have a good rest of the weekend.
TraderJoe
Circle 1 of larger C cannot be longer in price than the larger A. Okay, on board now. Off course we knew that. (Must of been a pressing week.) Similarly Circle 1 of larger C at the rally high would've also been a time degree violation as well as price. Double whammy. Now what? Straight down or choppy move a bit higher. The latter may suit a diagonal, particularly in the 5th wave position.
ReplyDeleteThere is no overlap between ((4)) and ((1)). So this can't be a diagonal.
ReplyDeleteRight. It would only be ((5)) that could turn out to be a diagonal.
DeleteIn the retracement stakes ES and NQ have both managed to marginally pierce the 61.8 level at last week's highs. YM is in the bronze medal position having made it over the 50.0 but hasn't reached the 61.8 yet. Then comes DAX futures, CAC futures & Euro Stoxx 50 futures which all made it through the 38.2 but did not reach the 50. Behind them is London and Sydney futures which both made it to the 38.2. Madrid cash made it to 23.6 and bringing up the rear is Milan cash which closed out the week still at its lows. Some domestic issues going on in Italy I believe.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/jMoa88K
Apple retraced exactly 38.2% last Thursday, and at least on Friday did not exceed that retracement.
ReplyDeleteI'm following Apple as well. Doesn't it looks like 5 down from the top too? Also MSFT retraced 76%.
DeletePossible 5-wave count with 3 just about equal to 1.618*1.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/bomzm
EWO profile fits too.~150 candles on 10 min chart.
DeleteWhy not just a simple impulse from 2780 with 5 yet to come? Probably as the extended wave?
ReplyDelete..'could' form an impulse; but hasn't yet.
DeleteSo ”a” on the above chart is 1? I mean there might be a reason why non of the indices did overlap 1 or even any part of 2?
ReplyDeleteIf so cash index might do it’s 3, but as a bigger degree
Deletehttps://i.imgur.com/uawvaqv.png
Nothing wrong with this leading diagnoal on FANG index?!
Deletehttps://i.imgur.com/QVHxItt.png
Re: Fang index; three would be longer in time than one?
DeleteNot if we use the second swing high from low as1, but then b of 1 is bigger than 2.. Is that ok? In an diagonal 1 is the extended wave
Delete@Erik, no, then wave four in longer in time than wave two - which is not the characteristic time signature of a diagonal.
Deletehttps://i.imgur.com/RKyZZe9.png
DeleteI only think B is bigger than 2 and 4 is the problem if any
Hi TJ
ReplyDeleteEW is not worth learning, imo. I rely on smart people like you to give me a direction using EW. But if I look back at the past year, EW would put a trader /investor on the wrong side of the trade more that half the time time.
Au contraire, Mr. Todd. The record shows every time you have gone "super bullish" with your opinionated statements, you have been incorrect each time. My published article on Saturday is titled "No impulse". There was a 6+ point truncation in the overnight last night, and we are lower this morning. We did not impulse up. I believe I rather expertly positioned my readers over the weekend for what today is. If you do not know EW (as you say it is not worth learning so you must not know it), then it is clear why you don't think so. Come back when you start your own website with the "Mr. Todd Method", and we'll see how you do.
DeleteJoe -
ReplyDeleteHope you had a good weekend. Two part question:
You frequently point out to us when patient, calm, and flexibility is required. This naturally begs the question, will you tell us when it's time to panic? Futhermore, a panic for what? go short, cover longs? I get that your blog is about counting waves, but patient/calm/flexbility seems to be alluding to trading. Just seeking clarity here.
With regards to counting (still on 1 hr charts), it looks like impulse for a C wave is invalidated due to overlap of wave i and iv. Either an abc retrace is finished or this thing is turning into a double ZZ or a WXY setup which takes us to around 2960 for one more higher corrective high. Do you see any way to get to new all time highs?
Thx
-TJ
Nothing in my statements alludes to trading. The opposite of patience, calm and flexibility is just a high degree of confidence in a count. The A-B-C finished with a truncation in the over night.
DeleteYM & Dow did not truncate on Friday and now it is possible to count 5 down. From its possible truncation point it is also possible to count 5 down on ES. Something to watch for and this would imply a retracement rally. 50 & 62 retrace on ES is at 2910 & 2915. I wish I could get the trifecta with NQ but I can't say I can.
ReplyDeleteThe lows of the day where made a couple of hours ago. Now testing those lows again. Still thinking a retracement back up is a possibility. If so YM/ES would have to be in a b wave currently, an expanded b wave if lower lows are made.
DeleteThe market looks weak but FWIW the 138.2 markers for potential b wave are near 25942 & 2882.7 noting that 2960 & 2886 are already enough to satisfy an expanded b wave.
DeleteYM/ES now at the same level from the big rally on Thursday began.
DeleteThink we can cancel the b wave option.
DeleteKeeping it simple, S&P 500 daily futures still below the 18ma (which is pointing down) and possibly finding rejection at the 100ma with the slow stoch. pointing up but beginning to wane around the 50 area. https://invst.ly/bpndd
ReplyDeleteYM/ES my vote says in 4 of v down from the recent highs which, if correct, means futures are not quite done but nearly done and we should expect a retrace tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteA new post has been started for the next day.
ReplyDelete