The 'stock market by tweet' continued today. This time, a supposed delay in the onset of tariffs - and a reduction in the types of goods upon which tariffs are now being imposed - sent the news-reading bots crazy and created a higher high day. Prices rose high enough in the S&P and the ES to negate a downward count, and put into play the larger triangle we wrote about last week. Here is a LINK to that chart, and here is that triangle updated.
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| DJIA - Daily - Potential Larger Triangle |
As I had written, we have not seen the "large daily triangle" before the ending waves yet. Perhaps this is it. It is certainly a whippy and news-driven environment. Will the triangle play out? It is hard to say for sure. One clue would be that the upward wave terminates at the 78.6% level, or alternatively at the prior high (as a barrier triangle). Another clue might be y = w for the ((B)) wave of the triangle.
Time will tell. Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Every day the count or the chart changes. Sometimes we can't see the forest through the trees. This methodology is a labeling system for after the fact. That's it.
ReplyDeleteMajor tops are a "process". You obviously don't have the patience to be a good Elliott analyst, so you should not pursue it. Many larger counts are not really visible except on the weekly chart.
DeleteRelax, the wave two count is still in play. The Admin panicked today, because they can see the rot for themselves.
Delete@christiangustafson, nice count on the Cash
DeleteAgree..likely abc finished! This down move is also very fast so an diagonal up really have to prove itself
DeleteOr if yesterdays up move was the b wave of a flat and now c down = 2
DeleteThanks Joe. This is one possible scenario which, as you said, was a called out last week that resolves into new ATHs. A new one I see is the wxy. Should we surmise that the wxy for wave 2 retrace followed by 3 down is your bearish alternative? If yes, 50/50?
ReplyDelete.. possibly, but not until lower low days are recorded. Then you may see 'flip-flopping' between wave 2 and a triangle.
DeleteI haven't commented in a long time.
ReplyDeleteAG - you are correct, EW IS a labeling system for after the fact. ALL Ellioticians know this. Joe is no exception.
What a good Elliotician does is try to use the labeling of the past to try to predict what will happen in the future - and many tines they can do so with eerie precision. Other times, such as now, there are many counts that can play out and we have to be patient. That's not a fault of EW analysis - it's the result of dealing with millions of humans(and mon-humnas now) that are reacting to the market.
Joe, thank you for everything you do - this site is a blessing in our to properly learn and apply EW analysis
Wish there was a Like button...
DeleteEurope, Japan (the leaders) still weak. AAPL went for the 76% retrace. MSFT didn't make new high.
ReplyDeleteI don’t think one should be to hard to anyone trying to count this market right now. If we are in a bigger double combination that can morph into a tripple or something else maybe if it wants to and that it might not have decided yet which means we try to forecast something that isn’t determined yet. The market is likely moving in a structure that allows wave counting to be interpreted in different ways depending on short term news and sentiment.
ReplyDeleteThe one who can identify and wait for the important levels without over-trading and have some bullets left, or if more active but hedged will be the winner.
Down wave at 90%, qualifies as legitimate "b" wave of flat, or next impulse, lower.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/bq-yh
TJ
A clear reversal or hammer-type candle with follow-through is needed to even begin a retracement at this point.
DeleteYesterday's spike in futures is equally conspicuous as a "b wave" as anything else. (Yes another expanded flat). If so, now coming down in "c wave" of a bigger B? "c wave" appears to need a 4 & 5. Surely the market will not go higher again from these levels, or will it?
DeleteI had the same thought Billy!
DeleteElliott Trader, your latest triangle idea on the Dow futures is on hold?
DeleteYes. The larger triangle is off the table at this time. See below.
DeleteSince the low has been handily exceeded watch 78.6% from the 2,820 daily low.
ReplyDeleteAny up count now requires higher daily highs.
ReplyDeleteOutside day up yesterday on S&P 500 futures a bull trap? https://invst.ly/br1en
ReplyDeleteYes, as defined by Ira E.
DeleteDaily Russell 2000 has taken out the low on 8/5. https://invst.ly/br26t
ReplyDeleteCash has taken out the 8/5 low, futures hasn't yet.
DeleteElliott_Trader, is this a 5 wave impulse on the SPX
ReplyDeleteLINK - https://imgur.com/xBD3wIU
It could be an impulse that is part of wave 4 of current decline. Look at EWO (8 fold path).
DeleteNo, ii is in the wrong location. Line from 0 - ii, may not cut off any part of wave iii. Common error.
DeleteThanks
DeleteHere is the best I see so far on the intermediate term. This is based on the strength of the 0.618 retrace, and the Treasury's naming China as currency manipulator which dunked the futures 50 points for wave (v), down. Never seen in cash.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/br3gf
TJ
Best I can tell we have 4.27 relationship waves i & iii in the YM at the LOD on this drop, very close to the 4.236 fib. So a 4th wave MAY be attempting to develop. Very interesting if we 5 waves down here. ET either your latest chart is on the money or this drop is a "c wave" to goose most participants.
DeleteIf futures do not go too much lower, and that's a big IF, we have another very accurate 138.2 expanded flat situation on the YM. Cash equivalent currently trading around 25450. Could fall a bit more where the same 138.2 set up comes in on the ES around 2833/2834. Like to see a potential c of iv back up to around 25700/2860 early tomorrow. That would be neat.
Deletecounting up after rallies
ReplyDeleteand down after declines
maybe a count will stick
we are in a big higher degree 4th wave
4th waves dufficult to trade and count
comes with territory
A new post has been started for the next day.
ReplyDelete