Nothing in the ES daily chart has yet invalidated or been proved. Today price headed down to touch the 200-day SMA on the front-month futures contract. This is shown by the brown rising curve below price. In earlier posts, we said it could. It did. We don't know anyone else that outlined that possibility. As shown by the dashed lines, there are no lower lows, yet, leaving the two options shown.
The triangle doesn't look particularly good, but it counts acceptably. So, we must still be patient and see whether the truncation count applies or not. These are very close calls, and one would have to have an excellent set of market metrics (usually not available to retail) to tell the difference as of the close today. Essentially, the question amounts to whether or not price will take a strong bounce of the 200-day SMA. It's a reasonable expectation that it would, but it is not required.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
I think the only bullish thing left is the rare flat x ZZ.
ReplyDeleteHere is my speculative corn count.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/Uu5G7A8
ES Daily - the 5783.00 level, the second level down has been undercut at 5782. TJ
ReplyDeleteNQ Weekly - 20,025 would seem to be an important level in the NQ, also.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/TzU6KuFf/
TJ
Here is my ZB update which lends to TJ's large expanding diagonal in the ES. I think this needs way more time before the wheels come off.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/eygANwm
..just be careful the smaller w,x,y doesn't become a leading diagonal, with an eventual target at the underside of the extension of the expanding diagonal. TJ.
DeleteYep, It is real early and not much of a retrace yet. Thx for the comment.
Deletefutures just looks like a series of ABC's on the hourly charts. We may be done with this series soon.
ReplyDeleteES 2-Day .. looking at 'just' the front-month contract, not the roll-over, the is already downward overlap.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/l0E2k0cc/
TJ
So now what we have is a large A and B(unfinished) from the August 5th low.
DeleteSee below @11:26 am for just another idea. TJ.
DeleteThis is that flat X ZZ. The only thing I see as a bullish idea. Again a rare duck.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/SSS8NYj
Its running in a channel but this is getting long in the tooth for a 4 on the wave going back to August.
DeleteES 2-day. This is the one that has the "right look" so I'm going with it for now given that the triangle has been exceeded lower.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/xUdEmmWM/
I will have to evaluate the daily AO/EWO and see how low it goes today. It may provide another clue.
TJ
I like it. But I have an X at the August 5th low. My position is rooted in the belief that ever since the 2020 low, price has advanced in a series of (A-B-C-X)'s and would logically end on an A-B-C.This does not negate your large ending diagonal originating at the 2020 low which I believe in.
DeleteJust fyi - NYSE adv : dec = 431 : 2,332 or 1 : 5.4 into impulse territory but by no means climatic or kick-off (i.e. 1 : 9 or 1 : 10).
ReplyDeleteES 2-hr: I'm not saying this count is correct, but it is the only one I can find in the heat of the day that provides a clear invalidation point.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/xxd9aVtZ/
To me, it looks like if we pass 5,705 then there is a lot more downside. But, we're not there yet.
TJ
Shooting star on UVXY hinting at least an interim low.
ReplyDeleteinteresting! thx, TJ.
DeleteES 30-min: after three closes below the lower band (odds ~ 2 - 5%), price shot up to tag the 18-per intraday SMA again.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/P0laZ2bJ/
The intraday slow stochastic has worked off an over-sold reading.
TJ
..that also means there is an upward overlap on wave iii, down, in the ES 2-hr diagonal count shown earlier. TJ.
DeleteES 30-min: first up (green) fractal back has broken upward.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/zjGIwXL6/
TJ
5,740 to 5,840 or 100 ES points in a half-day. TJ.
DeleteThanks Tj. Does it have to close above 5849.72 for an overlap?
Delete@manu, no, I don't think so; overlap is overlap. TJ.
DeleteES 30-min: from the lower intraday Bollinger Band to the upper intraday band, and now falling off a bit.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/vvFzdcZa/
TJ
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
TJ