As of today, it is possible to count five-down as a contracting diagonal on the ES 4-hr chart, as below.
This is currently a 3-3-3-3-3 diagonal. It would have been nicer to see a 5-3-5-3-5 diagonal as it might have eliminated one possibility.
As it is The Principle of Equivalence tells us we must be patient and wait to see if there is a retrace wave that does not go over the high before being more committing to a down label. The wave is either ⓐ, ⓘ, or ⓒ. Because of overlaps on some charts, we have listed the ⓒ wave potential last with the lowest odds. I'd rate the odds roughly about 40:40:20 based on the overlaps. That does not mean going over the high again is impossible. It just means it has lower odds.
Yesterday, we said the 18 cross 100 SMA on the daily chart could lead to a lower low today. It did.
Today broke the November low on the ES roll-over contract, and price closed below the 200-MA on the daily front-month contract. Price is at the lower daily Bollinger Band and so Ira's "elbow" warning applies.
Have an excellent rest of the evening,
TraderJoe
Beautiful chart and analysis.
ReplyDeleteI will give that count some respect, but the EWO and 4 being longer in time than 2 give me concern. I am using a 90 minute with about 175 candles on it.
ReplyDeleteIt sure looks like a chart that would be next to the "spin the tariff wheel".
DeleteAny thoughts abt this pattern:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/6KDafH30/
I would think we are back to the idea that it would have to be a b wave as the EWO is passed parameters for a 4 as TJ pointed out. ES does not work the same.
DeleteSome one posted this as 12345. So 5 ended at the top of megaphone
DeleteLeading diagonal?? boy would that be a point of recognition. Courtesy of the German DAX,but i'm always wrong.
ReplyDeleteThis is an updated oil. Looks like a barrier triangle with the bottom on a weekly support shelf. I have to do some weekend work to see if this is not trying to base per the Stan Weinstein methodology.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/by9haUk
I think one more leg down. If yes then it becomes abc count instead of 5. We will find out in few minutes
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/x5F5MGBy/
I think we are in a diagonal of some sort from the covid low and I think all these waves up or down are going to be a pain in the ass.
ReplyDeleteHave a great weekend all!
ES 30-min: here's a reminder of the intraday wave-counting-screen. In the overnight, we had three-waves up, including the payroll spike. Then three-waves down to 99%. Now a rally which might be a Flat.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/OCqBcYEU/
TJ
ABC finished this morning, we go down to new lows.
ReplyDeletewave 3 of extended 5 now?
Delete26 now accepted on the vix. PS - the monthly 18ma is 5400.
DeleteFormer support now acted as resistance
ReplyDeleteThis is the diagonal over shoot of 5th of c
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/yHUpJVGU/
less likely until you show your a,b; stop stabbing; do the work. TJ.
DeleteI just saw your message. Seriously don't be so rigid. Here you go
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/EG9fYjac/.
DeleteSPY 5-min: here are some measurements to use on the cash chart. This wave can go lower.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/jvLQASMn/
TJ
SPY 30 min. Large positive divergences on RSI and MACD
ReplyDeleteSPY 2-min: touched 1.168 at 566.32; breached it a bit.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/jMgOzTAJ/
TJ
ES 2-Day (roll-over contract); now into a combination of overlaps and gaps.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/QPrVoG68/
TJ
An astute trader has said many times that market crashes happen from oversold conditions. Be careful with falling knives.
ReplyDelete
DeleteThat statement marked the bottom! lol.
ES 30-min: after a couple of consecutive closes under the band, price has rallied through the 18-period intraday and has met the objective of a Flat. I am not 'sure' it is the Flat, but it can be counted as such as the down wave is so messy. Because of length, I can not rule out a bit longer fifth wave in the diagonal.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/RXFV05o5/
TJ
As you can see by the Fibo ruler included the (v) would be shorter than (iii) at this location, still allowing the entire structure to be a diagonal.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/x4Vhe8eo/
Very, very messy counting.
TJ.
I moved the contracting diagonal to were it works with the EWO and came up with this.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/dXeUHtK
1, then B? TJ
DeleteDiagonal using a 30 minute is a little long on candles but looks good. The whole move would have nice alternation with an impulse and a diagonal to finish.
DeleteChange that to an A. The mix is caffeine, pseudoephedrine, and Advil is causing some issues on my end.
DeleteMoving it here would also get iv to be shorter in time ii.
DeleteES Weekly - just as an aside, the SPY weekly timeframe "looks like" five non-overlapping waves down (not in a diagonal).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/MBQNjrZ8/
TJ
Correct to assume the diagonal mapped above iis the fifth of five on the weekly chart?
DeleteThe two are 'equivalent'; a) a 'whole' diagonal, and b) the fifth is the diagonal. Both leave one in the same place, I think - five down. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Short Term Low 3-11
ReplyDeleteGannTiming.com