Over the weekend, regardless of what you heard about tariffs, the President made demands to spend billions on a Golden Dome (see this LINK), and when the markets heard the words, "Billions more in government spending - and possibly space based" they went bonkers, gapped up, and kept on going into the close. From the chart, below, you can see price is closing over the 18-day SMA, and the daily swing-line has flipped to positive.
This suggests the odds of the continued down move have flipped temporarily in favor of the up move with the overhead resistance possibly shown by the brown 200-day SMA, the upper Bollinger Band and the 100-day SMA (the green crosses).
So, even though we were expecting upward movement since the Mar 13th low, it may have gotten out of the range of a fourth wave. It's unfortunate, but it places the wave-counter in the position of having to wait for a new lower low, or even a newer all-time higher high, before deciding on the best wave labels.
Literally, and I mean this sincerely, one could try placing an ⓐ or a ⓘ at that low. And that is all well and good. But it is still of minimal help. In other words, supposing one is thinking a diagonal down is forming. OK. But will it be a contracting diagonal or an expanding diagonal? And is this upward retracement even over? Try to keep in mind, the algo's just got a typical buy-signal based on the Bollinger Band methodology.
Rather this is one of those times when one simply needs more waves, or more overlaps to try to gauge what is going on. Yes, the current up wave is in a channel. If it should break lower tomorrow, more power to it. But, if it doesn't?
So rather than propose multiple wave labels at this time, it is probably best to stand back for a bit and just observe whether the power continues to the upside or a break lower immediately occurs. There are other markets that seem to be counting a bit better at the moment (like Gold), and so maybe that is where some attention should go.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
The lack of 1.618 extension and having to need a triangle to avoid overlap in iii were always concerns.
ReplyDeleteNow we move on to more options. That is the nature of an elliotician.
An a=c would come into horizontal resistance at around 5850 ES and reach the top of the channel drawn of the bottom.
DeleteLack of 1.618 would be from your diagonal 1 count? The impulse version has a 1.618 as was previously shown. TJ
DeleteYep, Even more of a concern was when the EWO went over + 40 on the EWO by 5 pts.
DeleteYes, we agree on that one. TJ.
DeleteThis is just a reminder that I counted this way in 'real time', pointing out the triangle. And it turned out the triangle 'was' the key to the turn.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/GodyXLxC/
So, to me, it looks like the diagonal just converted to the impulse. Diagonal (i), breakaway (iii), triangle (iv).
The importance of this is that I may not be looking for a further diagonal lower because this would be an impulse. There are no rules violations, and all lengths are met. (ii) is very, very short, but it does break the upper diagonal trend line.
TJ
Thx for that reminder. The first wave in a new trend can be a pain.
DeleteThanks Tj. I see a gap in SPX cash at 5825 which was not filled.
ReplyDelete/CL flat bottom barrier triangle still intact.
ReplyDeleteThis is just a reminder that I counted this way in 'real time', pointing out the triangle. And it turned out the triangle 'was' the key to the turn.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/GodyXLxC/
So, to me, it looks like the diagonal just converted to the impulse. Diagonal (i), breakaway (iii), triangle (iv).
The importance of this is that I may not be looking for a further diagonal lower because this would be an impulse. There are no rules violations, and all lengths are met. (ii) is very, very short, but it does break the upper diagonal trend line.
TJ
TJ, aren't there retracement rules for diagonals? Just trying to learn.
DeleteHi Roy. The figures given are 'guidelines' only. Not rules. Like most of the EW measurements they were developed primarily on the Dow on the daily and weekly charts. Intraday, it's hard enough just not to break the rules. And, yes, I agree it's an awful count, but 'take the opposite view', "suppose that the bulls are right and there is to be a new all-time high". Then, the five waves down 'end' a wave - like a fourth wave - and doesn't start one. TJ.
DeleteThanks
DeleteES 4-hr: here's what there is so far on the up leg. As I stated before the Principle of Equivalence keeps us very even-tempered here, because there is no downward overlap or downward channel break to signal anything yet. Also, 'in-terms-of-time' if the uptrend wants to become as long or longer than the downtrend it time, it is free to make a double zigzag if not a larger single zigzag.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/PEtHPw5C/
So, one must count locally as best as one can. And this is tough in corrective waves. And that was the point of the main post above.
TJ
10:00 ET: Consumer Confidence
ReplyDeleteFor: Mar | Trading Impact: High | Actual: 92.9 | B.com Forecast: 96.0 | B.com Cons: 94.2 | Prior: 100.1 | Revised From: 98.3 -- (from Briefing.com). TJ
Gold (GC) futures - 4 Hr. Here is another potential diagonal to play around with or watch. This one is expanding off of the high.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/puOkvCBm/
The objective is to make a (v) > (iiii) wave before a fourth wave (iv), shown, busts. The wave should come down to the lower channel line and/or bust through it. I have an inkling why so many of these patterns are happening. I can't stop 'em, but I have to recognize what they might be.
TJ
SPY 1-hr: does have a gap fill, as shown.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/rxMvWRVG/
TJ
ES / SPY (CFD) here are some considerations why people (including me) get wave counts incorrect: this one on a 1-minute chart. 1) failure to recognize leading diagonal, a compression-type pattern, 2) failure to give the diagonal 'time' to correct, as in the 'running wave', 3) failure to place the Neely 0 - ii trend line, 4) failure to measure retrace as less than 38%, so it might 'not' support a longer up wave., 5) failure to give fourth waves time to be longer than second wave and to alternate with it if that is going to happen.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/19phbw
TJ
..if it should overlap (which it hasn't yet) then it is a clue to look for a larger 'b' wave - say in the hourly count - or a diagonal-style top. TJ.
Deleteas far as I can tell using these quotes, there has now been 0.01 overlap, in real time, using a/i as the 'lowest' practical wave terminus in the count. That should be some cause for 'head-scratching', i.e. noodling.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/19phrz
TJ
SPY 5-min: back down to support/resistance zone, as shown.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/uKWGz1Fg/
TJ
SPY 5-min: all I can say is, "they compressed it again", and then the upper diagonal trend line was broken higher. This may be a sign we are in a triangle, on a larger time scale 30-min to hour.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/e0utmeAV/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ