On the ES daily futures, the early higher high allowed the swing-line to be continued up to today's bar as shown in the daily chart below.
And while this is in accord with the daily bias being higher, the daily slow stochastic tonight is entering over-bought territory. So, according to the methodology this should dissuade large amounts of new money from being committed here. Further, the upper daily Bollinger Band - after dropping down through the 100-day SMA (green crosses), risks crossing down under the 200-day SMA (the brown curve). So, in one way volatility is being sucked out of the market.
For our part, we have noted lots of overlapping waves - some of them diagonals - and it may be emblematic of the reduction in volatility. Upward price travel is still in an upwardly sloping parallel which may indicate corrective waves. But even though price is having a rough time at the upper edge of the parallel, we have not yet concluded that upward price movement is over, or that the correction won't extend in another way. We watch for signs intraday - such as a triangle or larger diagonal.
One gap was filled to the upside today. Maybe another will fill. Maybe not. After the higher high, the news regarding the Conference Board Consumer Confidence (92.9% down from 100.1) came out and took some edge off of the upward progress. If people lose confidence and reduce spending, it will probably mean some tough going for the market unless government spending (Golden Dome, etc.) and other stimuli make up for it. So far, only marginal stimulus has been announced via the FED's reduction of the amount of QT noted in Chair Powell's press conference. And, yes, the tariff wild card still remains.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
TJ, In your experience, when this occurs, is one more often then not the extended wave?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/GodyXLxC/
yes, within the down wave-set shown (ES 4-hr) wave (i) is the longest in price & time of all three down waves. But the retrace has already made 50%; as in the link below. 'Usually' that is sufficient for a greater than equality extension. If the retrace had stopped at 38% or below, I would have said, maybe we were in for a 'series' where the first wave, minute ((i))/((a)), not (i), was the extended wave.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/sgjoxB5A/
TJ
THX!
DeleteOil flat bottom barrier triangle update. EWO seems to agree.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/5xRH2oV
SPY cash 15-min: Looks like we are getting either a triangle or flat. Triangle is already validated by crossing over the center.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/wGeKrp6J/
Could break down into the flat. Keep an eye on things.
TJ
The 0 - ii trend line has been added, and there has been a breach. Can still triangle or Flat. They're squeezing the living volatility out of this thing.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/xnhPuhev/
TJ
ES 30-min: ES has five-consecutive closes below the lower bands, dropping the odds to 1 - 2% of the next close being outside the lower band.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/LTDbzFqH/
Fourth a fourth wave, this is getting quite extended lower, but not invalid, yet.
TJ
Sixth close outside the band, drops the odds to 0 - 2%. TJ.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/glSbkcJ5/
ReplyDeleteIf triangle then then subsequent wave up was an ending diagonal not 5 normal wave with flat B
DeleteCouldnt make the top of corrective channel and now overlap. Not to bullish!
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: close inside the lower band resets the number of consecutive closes.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/sC4wZQ8K/
Slow stochastic still embedded on the intraday time-frame.
TJ
..embedded stochastic brings a lower low .. TJ.
DeleteWicked evening doji star shaping up on the daily cash SPX. Liquidity is incredibly thin here I'm noticing.
ReplyDeletethe pump on /ES right before the drop today was 90 percent of the first wave down. If it's an ABC there will be a B relief rally overnight. We are very oversold here already.
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ReplyDeleteTJ