According to The Eight-Fold-Path Method for Counting an Impulse, with 120 - 160 candles on the chart the guideline for a fourth wave in the Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO or AO) is +10% to -40%. The daily ES chart, below, has 145 candles on it - well within the desired range. The Method is the Featured post on this blog, and the link for it is located under the Purpose and Ground Rules on the upper right-hand corner of the main blog page.
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| ES Futures - Daily - EWO -69% |
The EWO on this chart is currently at -69%. So, even though there is no downward overlap in the continuous futures contract - like there is in the lead month only - as best we can tell the upward count is over. We drew this chart earlier in the day, noted that it had the right look for an impulse and wanted to check the EWO at the end of the day after the expected rebound. The EWO remains out of range. The fifth wave truncation count was shown earlier in several posts and comments.
Any further lower lows would more strongly suggest that Intermediate (3), up, is over, and Intermediate (4), down, has begun.
Have an excellent rest of the evening.
TraderJoe
That really is great chart work.
ReplyDeleteThx! TJ
DeleteSecond the motion!!
DeleteIf we are counting an abc down at minor degree I think we have only a minute 1 of A complete.
ReplyDeleteMaybe EWO is deep because it´s ((ii)) and local top is ((i))
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/19boj3
This is my idea if we are not done yet. Nothing fantastic for new highs, just a rolling over to the right with a high chance of failure.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/Hn24qxn
This may let the dow get to 3 being larger than 1.
The other thought in my head is since the covid low, this is just the first 3 way move in a larger diagonal that starts losing the channel on the monthly charts.
Your chart is what I have also.
DeleteThree comments: 1) wouldn't the labeling below be simpler and largely not overlapping until the election waves, 2) you didn't label the election waves, and 3) what are the wave labels you would have at the blue arrows? How do you explain the new up waves as sub-waves?
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/gSMvsM1v/
TJ
The 1st blue arrow is B. The 2nd blue arrow is C. The 3rd blue arrow is X. The rest of your chart is exactly as I would label it.
DeleteUp sub-waves would be 12345
Delete....which would finish off the C and large 3.
Deleteso, just to clarify, something like this is what you are thinking?
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/6HMiQ022/
TJ
Very close, but I have an X at the Oct. 2023 low. I think your first circle a is too long, but I'm not using the XYZ technique.
DeleteOur endings would be the same though.
DeleteI meant to type WXY above.
DeleteIf one uses a wxy label from late 2023 then a diagonal in here would work but then it is not a simple ZZ. If I use your count from 01/19 than a diagonal from here would not have alternation from the expanding one on your chart.
DeleteProbably cant get to excited until a channel break.
abc
Deletehttps://imgur.com/6jwv9v3
wxy
https://imgur.com/g2z9ILE
Are we calling that five waves up off yesterdays low and now correcting that potential impulse move, or am I seeing things again?
ReplyDeleteSee below @10:19 and following. TJ.
DeleteCrude is starting to look like a barrier triangle to the downside.
ReplyDeleteWeekly
DeleteES 30-min: from the intraday wave-counting-screen, price is currently mid-range and therefore in 'no man's land'. A higher high than overnight can result in a larger second wave. But a lower low can also result in a larger diagonal.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/YvPI3YOg/
TJ
ES 60-min: This would be the larger diagonal if it decides to form because a potential wave iv is not yet larger than the prior ii.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Ah6jo8KE/
Clearly, this is not in my control, and I will just be interested to see which way it goes. Wave iv needs to become 'larger' than the prior ii to invalidate the scenario of a larger diagonal lower.
TJ
ES 30-min: as of the bottom of the hour the intraday slow stochastic is still embedded. It's a 'clue'. No answers yet.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/8351f3vu/
TJ
ES 60-min: now below the local prior low.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/rmcNZt4o/
TJ
ES now down to 90% of low; if we go through, it's the larger diagonal. If not, could be a 'Flat' wave.
DeleteTJ
ES 30-min: as far as I can tell, the intraday slow stochastic lost its embedded status. Only bar it can get it back on is this one. So, another clue.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/H2ELBFgf/
TJ
ES 30-min: from the lower side of the band to the upper side of the band, on more tariff news (delay of 30-days for automakers?). Chart is behind. Price is already up and thru the upper band and has taken out the prior up (green) fractal. Looks like a Flat wave; so far.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/KxGqFH2M/
TJ
SPY 2-min: now in range of a possible ivth wave. Overlap warning posted. The dual counts are in case of a diagonal.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/YApolNDw/
TJ
No clear resolution in cash in either direction by the close. Maybe tomorrow on the open.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Fx5x7iPD/
TJ
Sorry but it still seems to be another B wave on Es hourly with a very weak C of B finish at the close today. A plunge into Friday - Monday to me is quite possible.
ReplyDeleteAll three indices are flying bullish pennants. Looks like direction in immediate term is higher.
ReplyDeleteMarch 4 and 5 looked like a bullish pennant as well.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ