The title means the video is 'short' in length - about 3 mins - and related to Pluto somehow; not to try to short Pluto stock or something 🥵. But since EWI issued it for free on YouTube, I thought I'd share it with all just to be sure you were aware of the information. There is a caveat below the video.
The caveat is that EWI has been showing this chart for many, many years without the sought-after turn. Still, it's hard to fudge the numbers involved, and likely there is some real truth in there. So, enjoy the video and keep an eye on things.
TJ
SPY 5-min: does have a new low this morning.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Xlogw9sU/
TJ
We have been looking for today as a low...
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/QtPn13fr/
SPY 1-hr: so I'm thinking for the purposes of the SPY hourly chart, it would be prudent to put an overlap warning at 565.63, as shown below.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Fst2J9uf/
Right now, there are only three waves in a channel. If things break down further, fine, we could get a longer iii. There are lower highs and lower lows to this point. But, if things 'turn on Tuesday', then a larger diagonal or a nested count may be in the offing.
TJ
Thx for the video. Hussman funds has the same opinion.
ReplyDeleteyw .. TJ
DeleteGovernment bonds are arguably even more overvalued.
ReplyDeleteSomeone needs to point out, while EWI has some interesting data they have been bearish for the majority of the past 30 years. I first listened to them during the 'asian contagion' caused by a Thai Baht devaluation in the mid 90s. Then they pushed the idea that 2000 was a supercycle crash, a la the dark ages. 100% of the time you can find 'interesting' information from them, but it always says the end is near. And yes I was a subscriber back then. They have absolutely zero ability to time the market.
ReplyDeleteI do believe we are on the cusp of a cyclical downturn, but that is based on the ~18 year real estate cycle, something taught in economics at universities. It is simply a boom and bust debt cycle, fueled by the Fed tinkering with rates. And it might still be a couple of years out. 2026 is the cycle date, 18 years from 2008. See Fred Fogelvary "The Depression of 2026" - written in 2012.
I said that in my 'caveat' under the video, and most of us here know their record. TJ.
DeleteI often think about how you have central banks buying all sorts of assets since 2009 with no skin in the game.
DeleteOn one hand I think Elliot Wave Theory must not be as effective given this level of shenanigans and on the other I think this is what one should expect at a historic top.
ES 30-min: from the intraday wave-counting-screen, price is back to the 18-per intraday SMA after having had only one close outside the lower band (odds 5-7%).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/pJrNzd3L/
Fractals are shown and one needs to mind if they start breaking upward. The intraday slow stochastic got over-sold but has not embedded (at least yet, the bar isn't closed).
TJ
ES 30-min: the first up (green) fractal back at 5,616 has been exceeded higher. The bottom counts as an expanding diagonal in the MES and/or a very slight truncation in the ES. So, it could be the fifth wave of a C wave or a slightly truncated fifth wave of a C wave which is not a problem for any count.
DeleteTJ
MES 5-min: here's that acceptable expanding diagonal fifth wave in the micro contract.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/HRXBcSFP/
And the budding impulse upward.
TJ
ES 30-min: the next up (green) fractal back at 5,636 has been exceeded upward. TJ.
ReplyDeleteSPY 1-hr: just fyi - by the Fibo ruler this upward wave measured just 'larger' than the previous up wave in the same direction, the b / ii wave shown.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/FOa0DnPW/
TJ
Janurary 15th 2025 Wall Street’s Pre-Eminent Short Seller Is Calling It Quits. WSJ Nate Anderson article. Interesting read
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: from the intraday wave-counting-screen. Price broke up on the benign CPI report and made 1 close outside the upper band (odds ~ 5 - 7%). Then the next bar closed inside the band resetting the number of consecutive closes.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/mkJZGxAq/
We know this newer up wave is 'longer' in ES price than the prior up wave in the same direction. More measurements needed in the short run. Watch to see if 18 x 100 to the upside on the intraday, and if price holds support there. If not, then a wave (iv) up, and a wave (v) down. I'm ok with either. Promises to be (has been) whippy.
TJ
..back down to 18-per intraday. IFF ES gets below 5,600 that creates a problem for the lengths of the up waves from an up wave continuation viewpoint. TJ.
Delete..now below 5,600; this down wave is now longer in price than the prior one from yesterday and over-night. This tends to rule out 1) contracting diagonal, 2) 1-2-i-ii, and it might leave the option for a triangle or other fourth wave (i.e. fourth wave up 'could be' over in cash).
DeleteTJ
SPY cash 1-hr: this is 'one idea' in cash which didn't pop quite like the futures did. But remember ye ole Fourth Wave Conundrum which happens at 'every' degree of trend.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/JVq5Adjv/
TJ
..overlap warning remains unchanged. TJ.
DeleteTo be fair, IFF there is an up-wave count at this point it starts with a,b,c like a diagonal. But that would likely only be the first wave of a diagonal, and very very dicey to suggest such at this point. Could be, but it's too early to say. TJ.
DeleteI would think 5375 ES would offer some support.
ReplyDeleteSPX 5 wave up near 5640 off yesterday low, followed by dip to 5570, back to 5640 this morning, followed by second pullback to 5570. Possible a-b-c correction after impulse?
ReplyDeleteThe issue is that SPY and SPX are not currently counting the same. One could argue SPX only made a 5-3-5 up, as below.
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..and then a 78.6% retrace, down, which is triangle numbers at present.
TJ
..meanwhile SPY did this failure swing here. Nothing in & out precludes going over the top again, but neither does it preclude going under the low again either, especially since there is more money in SPY as it is tradeable and SPX is not.
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TJ
SPY 1-hr: opening gap fill, as shown.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/53bIiPqd/
TJ
All I can do is watch the well respected channel on the ES. As far as the count, I am lost.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/SzAPli5
I'm not sure what to do with it, but was there a triangle in that mess?
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I have to admit to my feelings being a little hurt here. What do I have to do??!!
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TJ
That would be the only way I could see and impulse. I have things I do not like.
DeleteThe 4 of the diagonal takes more time than the two.
ii/b is way shorter than the corrective waves in the diagonal.
The channeling is very ugly.
I appreciate all the work!!!! I Just do not have a high conviction on this.
lol .. me neither: 1) the Fourth Wave Conundrum, 2) the Principle of Equivalence which says 1-2-3 is the same as a-b-c until it is not. â„¢. TJ.
DeleteInteresting that the Dow Industrials made new lows today, while all of the other majors held above. Maybe the Dow fits TJ's iv-v expected move, while I get my 5-a-b-c impulse/corrective wave. I live in hope of the latter since, despite TJ's fine work at trying to educate me, I have an extremely hard time trading this three wave move within three wave moves forming diagonals and triangles. I crave calarity, and that for me is the world of impulse waves and corrections.
ReplyDelete"trading" is the above paragrap[h should read "tracking."
DeleteYes, I so understand. But your fellow mates, your fellow traders, your fellow hedge funds are all doing things like 1) trading levels, 2) trading moving averages, 3) trading momentum, 4) trading red bar - green bar strategies, 5) using neural nets & algo's to outgame the volume flows, etc. So, is it any wonder that the EW patterns are a bit murky off the high? TJ.
DeleteJust fyi - here is an alternate that I couldn't have too much exception with, except the wave doesn't follow the guidelines of wave formation. There is a 1.618+ wave after a wave that retraces only 38.2%.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/19h4pi
But still it would put a iii of â‘¢ on the low of the EWO, and v of â‘¢ on the divergence. There are 175 bars on this chart, a bit longer than the 160-candle guideline for The Eight-Fold-Path Method.
Either way, we are looking to see if a wave ④, ⑤ forms properly.
TJ
..and in this configuration, wave â‘¢ 'looks like' one of the least impulsive third waves I've ever seen. That's just why I'm thinking the diagonal off the high fits better. TJ.
Deletethere's a bear pennant on SPY suggesting 534 target is possible. That would fill a gap from August of 2024. Heads up for another C down from here.
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ