Below is the weekly chart of the S&P500 cash Index along with the wave count since the low. The first item to note is that price is approaching the lower channel boundary as drawn best fitting the wave terminals available.
The second item to note is that the current down wave is longer-in-price than the prior ⓒ wave of the Minor B wave down. This may mean that a turn of degree is at hand.
The third item to note is the alternation between the expansive Minor A wave (which is an Expanding Diagonal), and the compression of the Minor C wave impulse. The represents good alternation in a corrective wave.
Locally, the count is a little muddy as we got a triangle yesterday - as suggested - which can be seen either as a fourth wave down, with the fifth to follow, or just the fourth wave of a third wave; with a fourth and fifth to follow. I have no particular preference at this point. Price is still below the 18-day SMA and the daily slow stochastic is still embedded. As Ira would say, "there is currently nothing bullish on the chart".
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Worth noting: GOLD hit 3,001 in the after-hours.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/RuUlnDUF/
TJ
TJ, Are you still thinking b or is 3 extending on the weekly?
DeleteGold does not care about bearish EW counts!
DeleteMuch like my feelings on your comment which add nothing of value.
DeleteHere is an attempt at the weekly if this last move up was a 5. Maybe wave 1 was another first wave extension wave followed by a running flat. In any event, price is still above the channel and 34 moving average.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/EywIWTS
Given that price is above the 1.618 outside extension of the down move, the correct answer is "I don't know for sure". Still one can look at some analysis probabilities, and one is for the triangle fourth wave, as follows.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/9MkNq9bx/
Because the 78.6% downward retrace allows price to well cross over the prior high again, I would say a triangle is one possibility to get price over to the other edge of the parallel. If not, maybe a large diagonal. Best I can do at this time.
TJ
Thank you for your valued input.
DeleteSPY 5-min: 'looks to' have five wave up in a wedge with 5 = 1.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/XTgZwC2H/
alt: is expanded flat still forming a fourth wave.
TJ
update on ES. I moved to a 3 hour chart.
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GOLD (GC Futures) 5 Min: the down wave has the measurements of a diagonal which argues for monitoring the top, and for monitoring the low to see the wedge doesn't break down further.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/LHZa2XZL/
TJ
GC 5-min: now above wedge at minimum 38.2% retrace; can go farther if it wants. TJ.
DeleteSPY cash 1-hr: in this count, the EWO is now cracking zero in 117 candles, pretty darn close to the 120 recommended. Also, after, a >1.618 wave, there is at least a preliminary channel line touch. Further, iii of (iii) is on the low of the EWO, and v of (iii) is on the divergence. The EMA crosses all significant numbered waves.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/sKKqsGOh/
Still, we need to see a wave (v) low for an impulse.
TJ
..the retrace at the moment is 23.6%. TJ.
DeleteThanks for the excellent chart, TJ. It's nice to see that you have placed the wave labels exactly as I have. 😉
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