Today in the ES futures was an inside range day. A lower low was not made, but a 90% wave down was. So, this has the effect of turning the local swing-line up temporarily, but as long as price is under the 18-day SMA, a new upward trend is not in effect, even given we recognize some price gains we made today. The daily chart is below.
Other items on the chart include a close of price above the 200-day SMA, the brown rising curve, and the fact that the 18-day SMA now has a cross under the 100-day SMA. Often, not always, that cross leads to an additional lower low. We shall see. We have not had such a cross in more than a year. The cross has only occurred on the lead month futures contract, and not the roll-over contract, yet.
So, price is still in a down trend until it isn't, and the daily slow stochastic (regular calculation) flirts with embedding and losing that status. So, the wave structure is a mixed bag at the moment on the daily, and we are counting locally in the comments and have provided some ideas on the nearby wave count.
Much more than that can't be expected. Is it possible to return over the high? Yes, it is possible, but the odds are dropping rapidly every day we stay under the 18-day SMA. By the discipline, we shouldn't begin an upward count until / unless price closes back over the "line in the sand".
Have an excellent rest of the evening,
TraderJoe
THX TJ, I am trying to do better to incorporate Ira's work to enhance the probabilities of counts that are reflective of what side of the 18 day we are on.
ReplyDeleteNice. TJ.
DeleteOn the hourly on spx futures, there is a possible bear pennant with the the E wave potentially finished here. As far as can tell no rules are broken.
ReplyDeleteES 30 min: yesterday's low exceeded lower. TJ.
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: the 5,840 Mar 4 low has been exceeded lower; a diagonal lower (or worse nested count) has formed lower. More later.. TJ.
Delete..sorry, typo .. 5,740 low.
Deleteit appears deep pockets at current low supporting this market. 5 times in last 3 days. support supposed to weaken the more its hit. i would suggest nefarious intervention and new form of fed put if this low holds again
ReplyDeletethat's because it was a major trading range from oct 2024. That range is now breaking.
DeleteNoticed that too. Alternatively, that support gives way and spx cash dumps to support line connecting Nov and Jan lows before bouncing.
Deletesee above, the low just broke. TJ.
Deletei wasnt asking "why" that level was chosen to support im sure we all have our own interpretations. the fact is it WAS supported very methodically
Deletelol .. was it supported or resisted? Previous support turned resistance?
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/hOKfI416/
TJ
Lol! Nothing new there..Looks like the algos have switched from "Buy the Dip", to "Sell the Rip".
Deletemy support now on ES is 5789, on SPY is 570.90, and SPX 5716 5705. Thats why i am wondering why these levels were being defended above.
ReplyDeletethen 560-562 spy
DeleteI admit to being confused, ES 5,789 is now broken, so why is, "my support now on ES 5789" ? TJ.
Deletelow of day was 5791 when i posted. other levels werent breached. 571.04 vs 570.90 and 5721 vs 5705 thus far. ES traded below 5781 vs 5789 higher now
DeleteI am still confused. You said the low of day was 5,791 when you posted. That would have been before 11:30 am. See circle in link. But the timestamp on your post is 12:45 (see red down arrow). So, I am still confused. Very confused.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/e4gU8Iyk/
TJ
lol yes understanably so. i use a generic contract on bloomberg - its rolled to june. so the times are correct. heres the actual price chart in reading prices off of its consisitent ,
Deletehttps://postimg.cc/jDK4Z2fw
and the other spy and spx, came with in 8bps of that targeted sport
Pls do not quote that here. It's hard enough to follow the regular ES, the roll-over ES, the cash SPY, or the CFD. I have no idea what "generic" is. I think you will confuse everyone here with an item like that. Thx in advance. TJ.
Deleteno worries - i wont quote futures ill stick with cash and etf
Delete5715.33 spy low --- support at 5716 posted
Delete570.420 spx low - support at 570.90 posted
those were good support levels. maybe test again.
ET if you dont want this type of commenting let me know.
Thanks Tj. Nov 2024 Spx low was 5696.51. After Nov 2024 we were pretty much in 6.14k-5.77k for 4 months.
ReplyDeleteES Mar low now 5,723 , below the Nov low of 5,724.25 in the roll-over contract (Dec) which had the volume at the time. Chart is behind, will update when available. TJ.
ReplyDeleteWhat that means is that if you were a fan of this diagonal, which is technically 'legal', then you were proven correct by a low below the start of the diagonal in "less time" than the diagonal took to build.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ECBcs8zV/
TJ
glorious --- now we got to fit it into a longer count
DeleteDid we just complete diagonal
ReplyDeleteup or down (see comment above) ? TJ
DeleteAlso, please update this https://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2025/01/mag-7-weekly.html
ReplyDeletedon't assign me work; tell me what specifically you have a question about. TJ.
Deletehttps://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2024/12/unparalleled-100-year-fractal-catalog.html
DeleteSorry. Not assigning work. Just scrolling your old posts and seeing how come you are able to forsee.
DeleteWow TJ, your Jan 19 post Manu highlighted appears eerily accurate given trading since that post. Impressive.
DeleteWas just gonna ask, per that Jan 19th post do we have a nearly completed triangle in the SPX to potentially complete 4? Maybe gapping down below 5700 on cash to generate a VIX pop over 30 to complete the move.
DeleteVix is being accepted above 25 dollars https://www.tradingview.com/x/qqfTmOn9/
ReplyDeleteSPX daily. From red A, 38.2% was at 5721.
ReplyDeletehttps://postimg.cc/Thd9m1Fb
ill try again. maybe this
ReplyDeletehttps://postimg.cc/BjvZg2Jw
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ