The ends and the beginnings of the months are getting somewhat predictable. We suggested there would be end of the month "book-squaring, or window-dressing", and then preparation for the "first-of-the-month" money. That's what happened. We also warned readers to beware below the lower daily Bollinger Band. Yes, price might try to touch the 200-day MA, but it did not have to. That warning, too, was prescient as prices whipped around to close back inside the band. So, for today, the chart below is still just an alternate, but because of the length-of-time of the pattern it is the preferred alternate. The chart is a 2-day chart of the ES (rollover-contract) futures.
Nothing has invalidated a barrier triangle's measurements, and this one looks better when this starting point is shown, along with the 0 - 2 trend line.
We note that today there was overlap with not only Minor wave 3, on the downside, but then also upward overlap on the internal down wave of the ⓓ wave. Lots and lots of overlap & sideways price movement ... if it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck ...
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
I came across this count (not paid) in ndx Can't find anything wrong the way he has labeled last one year . He sees it as b. https://x.com/BigPipN/status/1895356658576171139?t=yd6N5F2y8Y7MfeHtmjSU6Q&s=19
ReplyDeleteYou didn't look very hard. After the 1, up, and then after the ⓐ, down, and on the way up ...there is no such legal wave structure a-b-c where the 'a' starts out as ⓐ, ⓑ, ⓒ and the 'b' does not retrace 90% as a Flat. If there is an a-b-c zigzag then the 'a', by definition, 'must be' a five and not a three. I know. You 'missed it' in all the garbage on the chart. They all do. TJ
DeleteNotice how with three-wave sequences in the link below, i.e. (a)-3, (b)-3 and (c)-5 the (b)-3 wave 'always' makes 90%. It is a 'rule', and not a guideline.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/kh5T7GsN/
When it doesn't the structure 'must be' a double zigzag, and the a-3 and b-3 that doesn't make 90% 'must be' relabeled as w, x ..
When I see junk like this on a chart, I just shake my head, wish the people would actually take the time to learn the rules, and don't bother with the rest of the count.
TJ
Thanks
DeleteCan someone remind me what the primary count is.
ReplyDeleteThis is a little weird. My es 2day says it is using a March 25 contract, shows a new high around the 19th. My daily says its using the same contract but does not show the new high. Must be one chart is grabbing one more or one less contract change.
I would think either the diagonal or barrier triangle will look very similar and I would think the probability of failure in here is elevated.
The primary count is still this one.
Deletehttps://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2025/01/its-official.html
We're looking to finish the C, up, of (3). Hopefully in that time, the DOW will also make a 'longer' wave up, which it hasn't yet. On the chart above I am showing 1 - 5 just to illustrate and emphasize the five-wave structure. The degrees will be lowered by one degree to fit the monthly once we fully get the 5 waves.
TJ
Thx
DeleteI also believe we are in a diagonal beacause the wave behavior.
Delete..as to the diagonal: 1) the 'lead month' futures contract only, that is ES H 2025, has no new higher highs. I have pointed that out in the comments numerous times. 2) A diagonal usually has 62 - 78% extension legs. In the SPX they barely peak above the highs, more like the 'd' wave of a triangle, and 3) the NQ broke down into a true Flat today. See link below. This would 'tend' to indicate that the fourth wave is over or else it will risk overlap. So far, it has not overlapped, and so it can be the 4th wave.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/kh5T7GsN/
TJ
I apologize. I was referring to your monthly SP500 count and should have noted that.
Deleteah, got ya .. thx. TJ.
DeleteBroadening B bands may be telling a cautionary tale for the bulls.
ReplyDeleteIf we had an AB with C on Friday (maybe complete, maybe not). We could just have formed an A Wave up with B next, perhaps to test the low and then C up to 6100 again. Friday's pump with no retrace whatsoever definitely had C characteristics and stopped at the. 382 fib (so far). Thank you, I appreciate your detailed count.
ReplyDeleteDef C wave personality... 😊
DeleteThis is what I have; the second wave definitely had >62% retrace that could support the longer third, and even longer fifth waves. Agree there can be a retrace. The fourth wave also made a "running flat" auguring the great strength of the fifth wave.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/JXtWt4N8/
TJ
@tachy .. or the 'thrust from a triangle'? 🤪 TJ
DeleteNice Roberto the lower low around noon I can only read 3 waves. Maybe flat B and the C up as you said
DeleteAll - pls pay attention and see the comment below. TJ.
Delete@TJ, indeed. I was somewhat wary of the failure of volatility instrument print a capitulation candle typically seen at the completion of a more lasting bottom, hence my wondering about a. C wave possibility. I am sure Sunday futures will tell the tale!
DeleteES 1-Hr: using The Eight-Fold-Path Method, Fibonacci, degree labeling, and channels, this is what I have for the down count. It is a near-perfect c = a. Look at where c is relative to the Fibo 100%!
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/LdBgeHUw/
Note: one is almost 'compelled' to count this way, because the 'b' wave is much larger than the preceding wave ② or ④ of 'a'. Therefore, the 'b' wave has to be the higher degree wave. Regardless, upward overlap on 'a' - if it occurs - would pretty much seal the deal.
The three-waves down tends to support the triangle count on the ES, only, versus the Flat on the NQ. I can't find a better alternate on the ES that adheres to degree labeling.
TJ
note: you can 'rule out' a contracting diagonal down because c is shorter than a, but the new wave up is already 'longer' than the max travel of b, up. This means it 'can not' be - by the rules i, ii, iii, iv of a contracting diagonal at this stage. You can 'also' rule out an expanding diagonal at this point because c is shorter than a, and in the expanding diagonal iii would be longer than i. At this stage the count leaves very, very few options. TJ.
DeleteEven if triangle a possibility that we had a down b up (38 percrnt retrace) and c down of this leg to come l(there is still some room for the triangle to stay intact evrn with another.low). The b waves of previous legs seems big compared to the.b of this.leg down.
DeleteYes, the ABC fits perfectly, which is why I'm considering a test of the low Monday-Tuesday and then a further B wave to test the highs again. A larger C wave should follow if true. If, however we get only a small pullback Monday - Tuesday, then wave 5 to new highs looks correct. The third option is that the market collapses Monday, which may mean the the C down still needs to complete and wave 3 of C is next. Thank you again for the charts and analysis.
Delete@jack .. please do some work & show it. I respectfully disagree with what you have said. Here is the work I have done.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/nU7ZPFuS/
1) As you can see, the down wave is already 87% of the prior wave. Triangles 'typically' go 78 - 85%; if they cross into 90% then a flat wave is suspect. (That is in fact why there is a 90% rule for Flat waves). So, right now, we're ok. Any farther and it's more danger of 'the next impulse down'. 2) Let's say you want a "really, really big" B wave. Ok. Then look at the chart. The down wave, if you wanted all the lower construction to be 'b' of B with a C wave up to follow, is already at 1.618+; that is a warning sign of no-go for a bigger flat. 3) If you want a bigger B wave Flat, then price still has to go "UP" first, with more overlaps. 4) On the downside the end-of-day up wave, 'already' has overlapped ①, up within c. That is always a warning, Further, it has overlapped ⓧ of b. That is a further warning. 5) A zigzag is 'most-often' in a channel with a short 'b' wave relative to the other a, c waves. That's why it is often called a "lightning bolt". The 'b's can be remarkably short. And more to the point the personality of the ⓔ waves of triangle are that they are sometimes short, violent affairs designed to trap traders into the wrong direction, when the market is just about to go the other way.
I have you provided you with sound Elliott Wave analysis which may be correct or not (depending on invalidation levels). The current up wave does not invalidate until below the low of its origin which then would be below the lower daily Bollinger band again. That further slants the odds against your view.
While I certainly can be wrong. I have provided you with 'work'. If you are going to do some work on this blog and show what you mean with charts, I will listen. If you are just going to 'spout opinions' with little basis, I will stop listening.
I imagine most people have stopped posting here because they just don't want to learn.
TJ
I am not disagree with you. The reason I am one more count is because the last wave down around just doesn't look 5 waves to me. And I could be wrong also. Here is chart
ReplyDeleteTypos in abv post but you understand
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ujdLEx9q/. It will be cleared on Monday. Thanka
In that down wave; long 2 short 4 is still alternation. It is given a particular name. It is called "a bullish falling wedge".
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/gKbcT2d0/
TJ
Ok thanks
DeleteI'm totally convinced of the ABC, The B triangle was apparent on Thursday and broke down as it should - with a truncated E wave. The question for me is could this also be a WXY? If so, Y could be absolute carnage for the next two weeks. https://www.tradingview.com/x/s3SLl8U9/
ReplyDelete1) that would probably create overlaps with wave 1 up. That means it would no longer be a 4th wave, 2) if 'the top is in' with an a,b,c down the best chance to create a full downward wave is with a diagonal, 3) remember Ira's caution that retail tends to get bearish under that lower band .
DeleteTJ
ES 1 Hr: the 'a' wave down was overlapped upward in the overnight.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/BleQXl5o/
TJ
ES 15-min: as far as I can tell, the overnight wave extended like this, and the start of the ending diagonal 5th wave has already been exceeded in 'less time' than the diagonal took to build.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/TkK7SoBh/
TJ
Nasdaq sketch - https://ibb.co/991WGT7h. Welcome thoughts
ReplyDeleteWhen (2) is less than a 38.2% retrace, which it is using QQQ, then the expectation is that (3) is a 'shorter' wave and (1) is the extended wave. So, this count 'bucks the odds'. See Chapter 4 in The Elliott Wave Principle for the guidelines of impulse wave formation. TJ.
DeleteSPY 5-min: Here are some current measurements. It has made 50% down. Could go more if it wants.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/aci0wJiC/
TJ
if we test the low today it could be a B and fantastic bear trap for a C starting tomorrow. 18ma still at 6033
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/d0ShiTRZ/
Welp if that's a bear trap, it's a really convincing one but I still think so. Triple bearish divergence 4 hr rsi on the VIX.
DeleteES 30-min: price is still being reject at the 100-ma on the intraday wave-counting-screen. As Ira would say, there's nothing bullish on the intraday until/unless prices closes over the intraday 18-per. A 62% down (or more) retrace has been made.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Ed7vI296/
TJ
..note too, the 100-ma is also the Daily Pivot Point PP, and the intraday slow stochastic is only over-sold not embedded. Price has touched the lower band again. TJ.
DeleteWell seems like yesterday low was a flat b after all
ReplyDeletenope
Deleteprobably a,b,c down in the parallel, a,b,c up in an x; now a,b,c down. 'Probably'. TJ.
DeleteThanks TJ. 200 sma. 5836. We here in Canada are already messed up.
ReplyDeleteES only upward count remaining is complex ((e)) wave of triangle.
ReplyDeleteTJ
This has a better look for triangle leg. Let's see.
Deleteagreed. TJ.
DeleteES 30-min: after two closes below the band (probability ~4 - 6%) there was a close inside the band resetting the number of consecutive closes.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/eu1Wqhfh/
There is still nothing particularly bullish on the intraday chart, until/unless price closes over the 18-per intraday SMA, in a swing-line uptrend. Those conditions do not exist, yet.
Price did bounce off the 200-per SMA on the daily for the front-month contract.
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ