The daily primary and alternate counts for the daily ES futures are below. There is little to distinguish between them at the moment.
The daily Bollinger Bands recently squeezed together, so an impulse up "could" result, particularly if the slow stochastic embeds - which it hasn't yet.
If the market runs into trouble with the bands, then the alternate count would be a diagonal. But there is little justification for it at present - except if the market runs into problems with the Bollinger Bands and the daily slow stochastic should not embed.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
A triangle looking structure shows up in the Dow. The only thing that makes sense. Today's last 15 minutes sure looked manipulative like some big players wanted to go short at EOD
ReplyDeleteTHX TJ!
ReplyDeleteGold (GC) hourly: need to see if the down wave holds the box.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/tliJg8ae/
TJ
ES 30-min: from the intraday wave-counting-screen. We had a diagonal down, and now it looks like its high has been exceeded. So far, market holding ~6,130.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/14ybpTLn/
Let's see if higher highs are in the works.
TJ
If the Dow at some point takes out 44,300 on it's triangle it's going to get interesting.
ReplyDeletePossible Top in place
ReplyDeleteGOLD (GC) 30-min: so far GOLD futures are holding that hourly 50% retrace level as shown earlier. Per the intraday wave-counting-chart, GC has so far held at the combination of the lower intraday Bollinger Band, and the 100-per SMA.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/1ZYuKW33/
Might watch to see if the intraday embedded slow stochastic is lost (above 79), and if price gets above the 18-per SMA (intraday). Further a 'wave-counting-stop' might be placed below the daily Pivot Point (PP), shown on the chart.
TJ
ES 30-min: from under the band to two-closes 'over' the band. The two consecutive closes outside the upper band drops the odds to 3 - 6% of the next close outside of the upper band (not impossible, just lower odds).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Hofjgt6G/
TJ
I would put a 'wave-counting-stop' below the down (red) fractal at 6,140. TJ.
DeleteThat was D on the Dow triangle...If it doesn't take off,then a possible E... to a end.
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: close inside the band resets the number of consecutive closes.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/LVilSFEW/
TJ
The question I have,how much can the German Dax rally of this wave 1 low.
ReplyDelete458 .. you really, really need to start documenting your counts via The Eight Fold Path Method. How do you 'know' DAX is a wave 1, down? Look at this chart.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/TzDbiBvT/
Why can't the down wave be 'a' since a fourth wave, 4, can be expected? And I'm not counting the internals of the wave, but IF it's a three-wave 'a' wave and not a five-wave, then price 'could' go over the top in a 'b' wave.
PLEASE do some work and measure & annotate your charts. Show them here with a link. I have been patient enough.
TJ
ES 1-Day: today was a new local high in the lead month contract (ESH2025), but not a new all-time-high yet.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/qSSbjStj/
TJ
a commento on the probability for closes outside bollinger bands. By definition the bands are set up to represent 2 standard deviations from a "forecast" which in this case is a moving average. Any close outside a band could be thought of as an event that occurs infrequently. using a normal distribution we can estimate that means 2.50%. Thats an unconditional probablity meaning you dont know anything besides there is a price distribtuon. Now if you want to know the probability that 2 bars occur outside the bands consecutively that will be rarer - lets say 1%. BUT given you are outside the band the probability that you close outside the band the next bar in this example would be approximately 1/2.5 or 40%. After consecutive closes outside the band it is not true that THE NEXT BAR has 90%+ probablity of closing inside the band. I want to make sure that nobody believes that we expect the next close to be that predictable just becasue we are outside of a band. Its still a stochastic process but we are injecting drift via mean reversion.
ReplyDeleteconsider as example 5% to close outside the band. those are 20:1 odds. if we thought each of next 3 closes had 5% chance to remain outside the bar, the odds would be 8000 to 1 of 3 more close occurring outside consecutively once we break ot of band. We often see on lower time frames more closes than this and its probably somethng like for 3 more closes (.45 * .4 *.35) of each close meaing 15:1 odds or 6%. 2 consecutive would be 18% of time or 4.5:1 odds. The next bar probably is 35-45% of time going to stay outside.
DeleteNo, no, no. That's not what I wrote in the Summary of Ira's trading guidelines. The idea is this. We know that stock prices are not normally distributed (mathematician Benoit Mandelbrot rigorously proved this). They are 'log normally distributed' meaning the distributions have 'fat tails'. Nassim Taleb's work mathematically confirms this. However, IF one 'assumes' they are 'roughly' normally distributed when both the trend & the volatility are taken into account - by the moving average - and the width of the bands, THEN, this new approximation suggests that prices will only be outside of the bands ABOUT 5% of the time. So, then what? One goes back in history to COUNT how many times has daily price ever consecutively closed outside of an upper or lower band on a 'run' of the bands. One finds in the equity indexes the 'maximum' number of consecutive closes is seven. It's never been more on a daily chart. That is a 'historically' established fact. So, given the seven, one uses the following 'Rule of Thumb': 1 consecutive close = 5 - 7%, 2 cc = 4 - 6%, 3 cc = 3 - 5%, 4 cc = 2 - 4%, 5 cc = 1 - 3%, 6 cc = 1 - 2%, 7 cc = 0 - 1%.
DeleteAgain, it is based on a historical observational test, and not just the Bollinger Band statistics. If there has never been more than seven, there just hasn't been.
TJ
@marc - 4:19 PM is still a misinterpretation. TJ.
Delete. You are using unconditional probablilities which is wrong if you want to predict the next bar probablility which is now conditional. Your data points above dont say "Given you have 2 consecutive closes outside tha band the proabiability of the next close is outside is 3-5%. They say "given you can be anywhere on a chart" whats the probability we see cc=N closes above the band. You are accurate that these things are rare but you are wrong that going from cc=N to cc=N+1 is the values above.
Deleteover the last 9000 days in sp500 here are the probabilities of closes outside of bands consecutively: 0.0522 0.0219 0.0076 0.0024 0.0007 0.0002 0.0002. Thus .0219/.0522 is probabliity you get a second consectuive close outside of band given you had a prior close outside of band. its transitoin probabiity of 0.4206 (1 to 2) 0.3469 (2 to 3) 0.3088 (3 to 4) 0.2857 (4 to 5) 0.3333 (6 to 7). Thus if you have had 2 closes outside the chance of a third is 35%.
Deletewe are saying same thing? thanks
DeleteNo. We are not saying the same thing. The "Rule of Thumb" is an easy to apply and remember shortcut, though it is historically based, and 'loosely' accurate. Markets can do almost anything they want on any bar. But over time, the odds 'roughly' stack up - like a Demark 9-bar or 13-bar count.
DeleteTJ
Also, one thing I will add is that I am taking the risk that Ira's observations on the daily fractalize down to the 30-minute chart. I am doing that intentionally even with my own theory that the market can not be 'entirely' fractal down to say the one minute time-frame. This is primarily because of volume differences. I can't see how one can say that markets are 'entirely' fractal when you have volume from all over the world from, say, 9 AM to noon, and then the volume begins to dry up from elsewhere around the world. It's the famous "U" shaped volume curve during the day. However, because the opening 'half-hour' contains so much of the volume, I thought I would try it on the half-hour fractal, and mostly use it throughout the U.S. trading session, and not say at midnight. So far, the results have not exceeded what is seen on the daily, and it has looked good.
DeleteTJ
when you post after 2 bars ans you say it only happens 2% of the time or the appropriate number - you are NOT giving a forecast of the next bar but rather letting everyone how rare the occurrence is.... basically 95%of the indicators value comes from the first occurrence outside of the band i believe. I have studied a lot the difference between day and night sessions especially patterns that i believe use low volume and manipulation to shake longs and build inventory. The strategies employed do not work in the daytime - they are actually quite the opposite. The algos spend 9 to 10 am basically providing liquidity and elimnate news risk, then can manipulate until next opne when appropirate. The manipulation is either by very fast volatility or very slow contraction.
Deletethanks for your time
DeleteAre we forming some.sort of ed
ReplyDeleteES
DeleteJack, I have said numerous times that we 'could' be forming an E-D. But there is 'no proof' of such until 1) there is a new higher high in the ES lead-month contract, and 2) until parallel start to break down. Neither of those things have happened yet. If you are a fairly new reader here, you know I'm not much for people's impulsive and/or half-baked comments, even if with good intention. The purpose of this site is to encourage people to try to 'count'. So, IF you think there is an ED forming it is up to you not to take the easy way out and just 'say' so. You need to start the count, and keep the count going on a chart that you link here. Do the work. TJ.
DeleteSorry I was talking abt today's action not the long term count.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ONyXK91o/
Deletethx for the clarification. TJ.
DeleteSPY (Cash) 1-Hr: overlap warning on deck. Not doing anything until it overlaps or clears.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/jxHzdcSq/
TJ
SPY (Cash) 1-HR: overlap 'has' occurred.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/bo0OVyBq/
TJ
ES 4-hr: just be aware the 4-hr chart has the (good) possibility of an expanding triangle that hasn't overlapped downward yet on the larger timescale. It's ugly, awful stuff.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/XSH1GkhI/
TJ
Tj when you have time can you share how you would label the region (top of yesterday) in circle. For my education purpose. Would be first wave down and then flat ? Thanks
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/09RL8DYo/
Ok just saw your above post. Thanks
DeleteCould be 4 with 5 next for a C wave into tomorrow.
ReplyDeletediagonal 5 up
ReplyDeletehttps://postimg.cc/fV6BnDVd
How abt the 5th wave of diagonal now playing
DeleteThe morning and day action https://www.tradingview.com/x/L8xQfYrU/
DeleteGerman DAX 3rd wave extending?
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/QChbhBCQ/Screenshot-40.jpg