ES Embedded

The lead month contract of the daily ES futures came within 1 tick of hitting its upper daily Bollinger Band, yesterday, and today it sold off a bit, but not to below the 18-day SMA.

Of note, the regular calculation of the daily slow stochastic embedded today. This suggests that under certain conditions the Smart Money will buy breaks (like today), and 'try' to reach a target of the upper band. They might continue to do this until / unless price closes back under the 18-day SMA or the daily slow stochastic turns back down under the 79 level from where it is now - this would lose the embedded status.

Today's small down break overlapped some waves but not others, so there are still multiple ways to count. (Yes, you can see triangles, and/or contracting diagonals as you might like). But the down wave did not break a trend line from the January low, yet. And neither has price closed below the 18-day SMA. So, the bias remains up until it isn't any longer. Still, to paraphrase Ira, he wouldn't even tell his worst enemy to buy new over a daily Bollinger Band - because the odds of price closing outside of the band is only about 5% of the time. He might advise either a) to come out entirely depending on the risk, or b) to take some partial profits and let some run, knowing the risks are high. 

Have an excellent start to the evening,

TraderJoe