We have been trying to count a Intermediate (4)th wave in GOLD (GC) futures, and more specifically, the Minor B wave, up. The market has been having its fun with the count in typical B-wave fashion. But now the measurements show one location for a possible turn at the confluence of three Fibonacci ratios as the daily chart below, shows.
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| GOLD (GC) Futures - Daily - Three Fibs |
The three ratios shown are 1) B = 1.382 x A, and 2) ⓨ = 1.382 x ⓧ, and further 3) B = 1.618 x the low of (b), which is directly below (a).
And, as the four-hour chart below shows, there are still ways the count can go marginally higher. And there are ways it could fail at micro ⑤.
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| GOLD (GC) Futures - 4 Hr - Possible (a), (b), (c) |
Given this, it seems like the next two or three days are critical to see if a top formation and a turn are in the cards.
Have an excellent rest of the weekend,
TraderJoe
ES 30-min: from the intraday wave-counting-screen, so far it looks like a,b,c down to S1 and an upward overlap.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/rKlaNeoY/
TJ
..opening gap was filled; watch to see at top of the hour if the 30-min slow stochastic becomes un-embedded. TJ.
DeleteThe opening gap has filled, the slow stochastic has become unembedded intraday.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/8y1kUiC3/
TJ
ES 2-Hr: for the moment, the market seems to have sketched out a near-exact upwardly sloping parallel (this might change). But, if it is an 'a' wave up, the down move might be the typical 'violent' start of a contracting triangle that only counts as a,b,c down, so far.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/OvJc0Do7/
Maybe the triangle is waiting on tariff news or some other. This is all speculative at the moment. I'll try to pick it up in the morning.
TJ
Tomorrow tariff on aluminum
ReplyDeleteLooking like a creeping b wave on futures
ReplyDeleteGOLD (GC) 2-hr: overnight measurements in GOLD suggest that any potential diagonal is best extended like this. The overnight wave became too long by a few bucks. Watch 1) to see if overlap occurs, 2) if there is a higher high or a failure at ⑤.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/WgSONq5K/
TJ
ES 30-min: there is now downward overlap after a >62% retrace in a longer wave in time, up, than the down wave. But from what I can see the two down (red) fractals must be exceeded lower to start a potential larger structure downward.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ZMO4sW2W/
TJ
first down (red) fractal exceeded lower. Watch to see if intraday slow stochastic loses embedded status. TJ.
DeleteES took out the overnight high before the second down (red) fractal. TJ.
DeleteES 30-min: up count changes to something like this.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Z8fP4K0c/
TJ
First 5 wave down
ReplyDeleteJack, if you are going to leave a comment, please be sure to state market & timeframe. People can not read your mind. GOLD and ES are both being discussed here. Thx in advance. TJ.
DeleteSure I meant SP
ReplyDeleteThat mystery setup is now busted.
DeleteLast three push higher on es maybe an ending diagonal for C of B?
ReplyDeleteNVDA looks to have 5 up near the EDT lower TL
ReplyDeleteSPY 15-min: still a speculative and wedgy count but at least it has a very clean invalidation level shown by the Fibonacci ruler.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/rj1LUTlN/
TJ
Reminder: FED Chair Powell testimony to Congress scheduled to start tomorrow morning 10 AM ET. TJ.
ReplyDeleteI see a wave down on es and now a triangle break. Another abc? I'm completely lost on the overall count. I just keep seeing 3 wave structures. At some point this is likely going higher to take out the stops above the highs.
ReplyDeleteThe move down to 6020 could be A now B either as triangle or abc then C lower low than 6020
Delete"being completely lost" is the exact symptom of The Fourth Wave Conundrum. As I wrote, "Everyone wants to know what the count is ...", but there are too many structures. So don't feel bad. It is a very 'low probability' environment.
DeleteRemember, this could still be a 'b' wave triangle - given the 4 hr ES chart I showed earlier.
TJ
Remember this chart?
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/anYeEyyF/
A lot of structures are possible (higher highs, lower lows) because 1) Chair Powell is speaking today, 2) tariffs are going on right & left, etc. While it is not a time to be discouraged, it may not be a time for big bets or any bets at all. It may just be 'the battle at the 18-day SMA".
TJ
Great point regarding the fourth wave. The late great Dick Diamond taught me knowing when to stay out of the market is as important as knowing when to be in.
DeleteGOLD (GC) 4 Hr - Because of some overnight length violations, a diagonal may not be at play. I could see one last try for the high - maybe after a ivth wave triangle but not required.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/aZ4peZpc/
Price is already at 1.618 of the down wave.
TJ
Powell's statement: Good economic growth with sticky inflation.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/powell20250211a.htm
TJ
Here's my take on the short-term EW count in the SPX index.
ReplyDeleteI prefer to post a labeled chart, rather than a few ambiguous words:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/aUEbvEZ6/
Trader Joe can say if my degree labelling seems correct. But you may note on this (15 minute) chart, that there is a lovely confluence between the 61.8% retracement of the most recent 5-wave bull impulse, and where wave c would be equal in length to 100% of wave a, and the rising trendline drawn along recent lows.
Makes sense to me and perhaps tradeable if expected C wave selloff next come in 5 waves and looks right. But when have these algos allowed such a clear pattern to land?
DeleteCount ignores the futures market with larger price excursions. That count 'may be' possible, but so are others. And degrees a little more uncertain at this time.
DeleteTJ
Thanks for your feedback, TJ.
DeleteSince I actually trade options and not futures, I follow the SPX index chart, primarily. Although I do keep an eye on those extremes in the ES futures. 😉
I've been considering that count as well. It could also morph into a diagonal downward. That would really create some confusion.
DeleteSPY cash 15-min: opening gap filled. TJ.
ReplyDeleteLol! This market is starting to assume a quasi-comedic persona. Shooting star on Friday, gap higher on Monday that fails to take out Friday's high, gap lower at the open "seemingly" printing an island reversal...bearish right?
ReplyDeleteThere is a triangle involve, don't know which way it will break but it makes trading easy if you wait for a breakout then take a position
ReplyDeleteSeems like the small triangle will break to upside giving us abc up from 6020
DeleteES (SPY_CFD) 30-min: this is all I have at the moment, but again it does provide a very clean invalidation point. The alternate is in red along the bottom.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/18wbaq
TJ
ES above prior local high. Watching for equality with prior up leg (or more).
Deletehttps://invst.ly/18wcuf
TJ
ES (SPY_CFD) 5-min: there she goes minimum for expanding diagonal met.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/18we19
TJ
ES (futures only) 2 Hr: now within the potential blue triangle not only has 62% been met, but it is possible to test 78%.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/vJ7WIuH5/
TJ
It's looking like a choppy B on ES hourly chart. A double top to 6115 would be ideal.
ReplyDeleteES 5-min: we now have the longest down wave since noon. And it's in the form of an expanding diagonal. This suggests watching the high to see if it holds.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/18wfcw
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ