Tuesday, February 11, 2025

ES at 78.6%

We showed a potential uptrend with a triangle count on the ES 2-hr chart. It is repeated below. Today we noted the up wave got to 78.6%.


We don't know that the up wave is over. We are monitoring for that. If the up wave should be over, then a reciprocal 78.6% down wave might occur IF we are in a triangle. It should exceed the ⓑ wave of the b wave, lower. Remember, a triangle can not be called until all five waves and their measurements are in the market.

This could all be a part of the "battle at the 18-day SMA" on the daily chart.

Reminder: FED Chair Powell is expected to speak to Congressional House members tomorrow.

Have an excellent rest of your evening,

TraderJoe

18 comments:

  1. Thanks Trader Joe, for your clear and concise summary of the EW count possibilities at this time. 😊

    ReplyDelete
  2. This is just speculation but it seems like there is this weird H&S setup that may play out

    Potential H&S: MES Chart

    If so, will be interesting to watch if there is still some upside left first.

    ReplyDelete
  3. CPI up; market down hard. Prior ES 2hr low is key. Triangle still barely possible but so is a double zigzag or more, lower. No time for heroics. Chair Powell testifies again today.
    TJ

    ReplyDelete
  4. I'm reading this as a likely C of B with a final move up into later February.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ps the Vix looks like ab finished with C forming now on the hourly chart

      Delete
  5. The rebound is looking quite strong so far...the next wave is the 3rd wave up whenever it starts or started

    ReplyDelete
  6. I applaud all that are trying to count ES or SPY.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Lol. No just trying to find trading probability using ew. Here is a triangle this will go with your diagonal count
      https://www.tradingview.com/x/VXzOWp16/

      Delete
  7. Dow one down and 3 up so far. Today's CPI should be a game changer.

    ReplyDelete
  8. SPY 5-min: very difficult to get wave-handles on other locations even on this five minute time frame.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/yMOh5Uue/

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The way sp is moving. Chances of this being a D wave of triangle increasing. The triangle posted above

      Delete
  9. SPY 5-min: now a double-overlap on the first wave up. This 'could be' a better four, but not necessarily.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/PpBvGTkV/

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
  10. Must be of the "leading" variety"...😊

    ReplyDelete
  11. SPY 5-min: based on the length of time, the down wave is best viewed as some or all of the correction.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/DgNCvtQA/

    Yes, it could go lower on PPI tomorrow morning.
    TJ

    ReplyDelete
  12. Hardly a "deep retrace", but oh so typical nowadays!

    ReplyDelete
  13. A new post is started for the next day.
    TJ

    ReplyDelete