The ES 2-hr futures have lost the look of a triangle, while technically they still could be in one, the proportions are now strained. Still there could be a double-zigzag (w-x-y) lower for a (b) wave as indicated below.
The absence of a formal lower low currently indicates some strength in the count. That could change but it hasn't as of this time. If the count plays out, we could make the (c) wave up of a continuing diagonal or a larger X wave of a downward count, still to be determined.
Also, we should note it is possible to see a Minor 4th wave completed in the fashion below, if a diagonal is not playing out. A double-combination of this type is diagrammed directly in The Elliott Wave Principle by Frost & Prechter. In this case, the minute ⓨ wave is a triangle. And it does overlap one location for a Minor wave 3.
Again, as with most structures in The Fourth Wave Conundrum, the count is a bit more speculative in nature and requires better confirmation in the future. The one item we will say is that Frost & Prechter outlined the above structure in The Elliott Wave Principle, and we have never, ever seen one before. So maybe this is a real first.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
The book shows the double combination pattern on page 53. The depiction there shows the W and X portions as having roughly similar displacement, granted that may be ideal used.
ReplyDeleteYep, that's why a diagonal might still be playing out. We need more waves that measure longer. Still, this 'looks' close enough that I thought I'd mention it as I've not seen one in real life counting before. TJ.
DeleteTrump conf at 1 et..there is always a chance that yesterday drop was the first wave until we clear the start of yesterday down move.
ReplyDeleteSupposedly going to say tarrifs postponed till April. Semis seeming to like it, so too Qs
DeleteSPY 1-hr: yesterday & day's gaps have been closed.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/3wewq1E2/
TJ
https://postimg.cc/gallery/5j0T7nh
ReplyDeletethis count hasnt been invalidated since posted late september
SPY 15-min: (forgetting about degree labels for a moment) because wave 3 is less than 1, and 4 is greater than 2, then wave 5 should be less than 3.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/vOjEEHf2/
TJ
ES count is more bullish over same time frame. this move would be iii/3 when completed and woulc invalidate above count on spy
Deleteas alternative i am implying
DeleteIf don't make a break of fractal then this option still on table
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/NhKuw00R/
DeleteSPY 15-min: SPY is at its limit for a 5th wave, so no matter what happens (even if prices go over the high again) it would 'most likely' be part of a corrective wave, like the 'b' wave of a Flat ..if the high is exceeded.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/YbBU2jfn/
TJ
In all probability, in cash, this correction is likely starting with a flat wave. It might go 'over the top' a couple of times.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/q8RYS5WX/
TJ
Are we still trying to count a supercycle top?
ReplyDeleteI think we are on this idea yet.
Deletehttp://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2025/01/its-official.html?m=1
Joe, am I accurate in this overall summation ? I added another count. This count is extended 5th of extended 5th and when complete would mark a sc top rather than wave 3 of an expanding diagonal. I posted the more bullish impulse earlier which is just an alternative path to the terminus of expanding diagonal. I am saying based on EW we don't know when to expect the SC top. The next significant decline could be 1) start of secular bear market, 2) deep wave 4 or shallow wave 4 followed by a 5th wave to sc top. This top cant be predicted now, nor can it be proven based on the count of the decline, unless there's a way to differentiate an A and 4th wave of expanding diagonal.
Deletehttps://postimg.cc/6Tcn1RZh
TJ posted that a while back!
Deletehttps://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2024/12/just-thought.html?m=1
Yes -- thanks --- i was really focusing on how to know which path you are on given my comments above.
Deletesee discussion below @ 2:02 pm and following. TJ.
DeleteES count from yesterday. 5 can complete anytime.
ReplyDeletehttps://postimg.cc/G8yYmDb7
SPY / SPC - as far as I can tell this index has overlapped down far enough to create the flat, avoiding the potential length violation from yesterday.
ReplyDeleteTJ
SPX ..sorry.
DeleteHere's a link to the SPY chart showing the resolution of the flat, so far. Guys, come on, this is one of the better calls. How did the market know to resolve that problem rather than to go screaming over the all-time-highs first?
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/kYAbxmX2/
Now, it can do this several times if it wants, or it can now go over the ATH.
TJ
TJ
Could be it's making a expanded diag downward as c on minute chart perhaps
ReplyDeleteSPY Daily - here is an alternate count I must consider. It is alternate precisely because it appears to violate a degree label. I will show another alternate count shortly.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/gafCCfMF/
TJ
SPY Daily - here is the second alternate count and why it, too, is lower on the totem pole. The reason is the triangle is disproportional without 62% legs, and, while technically 'possible', it is much less likely.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/dwwBSeog/
TJ
SPY Daily - here is the First Preferred Count and why. The five reasons are listed on the chart.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/d8R7UKr0/
TJ
The second preferred count is a diagonal 5 but there is no 'clear' sign of such yet, such as a 62% or greater retracing second wave. We'll deal with that if the time comes. TJ.
DeletePlease note that the degrees are still relative on these charts and just for clear illustration of the relative wave sizes. I will correct the degrees on the larger weekly chart for which there is no sign that this is not playing out, yet.
Deletehttp://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2025/01/its-official.html?m=1
TJ
Thanks for all of your excellent work and first-class charts, TJ!
DeleteYou are making sense of a very chaotic market in a way that is very helpful and usable. ☺️
Welcome HG. TJ.
DeleteThanks TJ for above work. On a side one way for the future count to reconcile with cash going forward as markets are closed on Monday. Futures can make 5 waves for C with first being expanded diagonal in play at the moment whereas cash may suffice with expanded diagonal for C. Let's see.
ReplyDeleteYes, I understand. I would 'like' to see some kind of Fibo ratio for the retrace in cash (23 - 38 - 50?). And we are not there yet. New highs as part of a compound Flat can not be ruled out, either.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/KdzOkS3v/
TJ
Some one here had posted a nvda chart showing ed. After looking at chart for many months i think I have the puzzle solved. Post earning stock could move up big https://www.tradingview.com/x/7tyLjYOl/
ReplyDeleteWeekly - does not have the 'right look' of a triangle yet. The two highs are equal and the second one even slightly higher.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/PB0izUpb/
So, the opposite on the daily looks like this, so far. If the diagonal completed at the second high, then maybe earnings disappoint. No way of telling. A larger triangle could develop. But it simply does not have the 'right look' yet.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/HrvB0X3I/
TJ
Can't the b of C wave down be a flat in triangle? Thanks
DeleteEven if it is, then the triangle is nowhere near complete, and a D & E wave are needed. A triangle (or diagonal) can not be called until all five waves are 'in' the market. Until then, they are speculations worth watching. TJ.
DeleteYes.. I agree..under my presumptive count d in play now
DeleteBTW the A of presumptive triangle is right at 38 fib
DeleteNever seen such a complicated 4th wave
ReplyDeleteWhat a 4th wave
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ