First trading day of the month that is. We suggested that the first of the month could see typical inflows from roll-over sources like pension funds, 401k's, company bonuses, dividend reinvestment plans, etc. If you were watching the overnight you know that when the futures market opened last night, that money poured in literally from the opening tick until the cash open this morning - and then it vanished. Cash and futures reversed a bit near the high. Cash can be counted in the following manner, at present.
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| SPY - 1 Hr - Double Top |
Futures count a little differently as the triple zigzag we have shown earlier. The daily futures changed from having an outside range bar, up, early this morning, to having an outside range bar, down by settle. If we are making a Flat wave, then, it warns to look for lower low days.
But, more importantly, it really depends how large the flat wave gets. In one version, the Flat could be a fourth wave. In another version it could be a larger (X) wave. First, the lower lows are needed.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
The money flows indicate liquidity still being deployed fairly effectively, and I think above and beyond first of month inflows. VIX also pointing to more down-side so some kind of fourth wave does seem probable imho.
ReplyDeleteGDX (mthly) - updating a prior post -
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GDX/GLD (mthly) A dash of perspective -
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An aside - Defensive/Cyclical (sectors) vs SPY (wkly)
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One view of T (wkly) - [Weinstein] if interested -
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Good morning. Here is the ES 30-min intraday wave counting screen updated with daily pivots, and local nearest fractals.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/NTHrlAgq/
The Bollinger Bands are quite tight.
TJ
@TJ, Thanks for the insights. When most other indicators become useless or even trigger false signals the majority of the time, Elliott wave becomes more useful than ever.
ReplyDeleteES 30-min; I am intentionally being as conservative in this count as possible until the open.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/u-zku
It is possible that because the last (C) wave down, 'took-more-time', than the (A) wave, down, that the two waves should be of the same degree. And, the ALT for the up move is shown in red.
TJ
ES 30-min; downward overlap. Market in a weaker position.
DeleteChart .. showing overlap.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/u--hf
TJ
$$$ (4hr), basing in what may be seen as an inverted H&S (close only).
ReplyDeleteES 30-min; now with the overlap, perhaps an Expanding Ending Diagonal (C) wave to get to 62 - 78%.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/v00w3
Overall, possible diagonal 'lower' under construction?
TJ
fyi only ...@4,214 wave five within an expanding diagonal becomes longer than wave three of such a diagonal. IFF this is a (C) wave up, such a diagonal can fail, but does not have to, and sometimes the fifth waves get quite aggressive.
DeleteTJ
..there is ES 4,214
Delete..and at ES 4,215 it is 62% retrace.
DeleteWe have a H&S setup going back to last week 15 min. TF on SPX
ReplyDeletejust fyi - ES if below 4,204 I think the degree of the wave changes because the down wave would be longer than wave four of the diagonal. Otherwise, a 'last chance' C wave of (5) up.
ReplyDeleteTJ
ES 4,203 was exceeded lower by a tick in what can be counted as five waves down.
DeleteDXY (4hr) - something of which to be aware -
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ES ..now extending lower. (fyi...) By 'rule' if below 4,198 then the diagonal must be over.
ReplyDeleteES 4,198 broken lower - larger five waves down; truncation at this morning's secondary high.
DeleteSPY (15min) - observations
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Attempting to bounce off 200ma.
DeleteES 5-min; while the down count is impulsive, it might only be micro ((a)) of a third wave in a diagonal lower. Very halting, choppy count.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/v04ky
TJ
SPY 10-min: PLEASE NOTE - because cash stopped its retrace INSIDE of 61.8% and because ((C)) was less than 1.62 x ((A)), on the way up, I am going to allow that the down count MAY BE a five, with a long-in-time fourth wave, and avoid the complications of a diagonal count. This will have to be monitored closely.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/O8FltBVX/
In terms of monitoring, then micro ((2)), up, of this wave, should not exceed the upper channel line. If it does, then it's right back to monitoring for the diagonal instead.
TJ
Wave counting requires participants and volume. Only 30M shares have traded in SPY so far today. In contrast, 700M shares have traded in AMC.
Delete..then you are welcome to chart your count of AMC, or KFC, and show it or them here.
DeleteMomentum for a possible third down notably lacking. Characteristic break of multiple S/R levels also also should happen soon if a third down at this degree unfolding imho...tough waves to call!
ReplyDeleteAll .. please remember the degree rules for sub-wave one, as micro-((i)). It should be shorter in length than i, and it should be shorter in time than i. Today's down wave fits that requirement on both cash & futures .. first time in a very long time.
ReplyDeleteTJ
..and so, micro-((2)) would have to do the same; remain shorter in time and price than wave ii.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Z7xHrO0H/
TJ
An aside - GEO (2day) - Let's see if/how this plays out (Weinstein) [if interested] -
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SPY 10-min; close enough for Gubment work, providing the gap direction tomorrow. Futures can go up to about 4,212 in the overnight and not disrupt the pattern - provided they come back down by the open. Cash is out of room.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/2BB8goSJ/
TJ
Yep. That count would definitely accomplish the impulsive move through 4200, so far elusive, and keeping me wary... 😊
DeleteTQQQ 15m Chart https://www.tradingview.com/x/gbTGLeRI/
ReplyDeleteIt seems that Tqqq is torn between the necessity to correct lower after a 5 wave move up, and the necessity to retrace completely the final down wave from May 7th. Pure speculation but I feel that if the market drifts through to the weekend we'll probably open green on Monday (Tqqq will want to complete the retrace while the S&P will be looking for new highs). On the other hand TQQQ nmight have completed a double 3 up and if it's going to move lower it should do so almost immediately tomorrow morning with the setup created today.