Today was a simple inside day as the daily chart of ES futures shows, below. When prices rallied, we noted that cash and futures stayed inside of 61.8%.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Inside Day |
Because the 62% Fib level was adhered to, we think the bar is still just consolidating the previous drop. And for that reason we were able to post a plausible scenario of an impulse count, lower in the comments for the previous post.
A lot depends on tomorrow's gap directions, and those will likely be influenced by the reactions to the Unemployment Claims (Thursday) and the Payroll Employment report (Friday).
As we said in the prior post, lower daily lows are needed for any downward count. Lower lows would temporarily mean a change in the daily swing line from "up" to "neutral". Those lower lows have not happened yet. But, if they do, things could begin to progress quickly - especially given the potentially light volume in the holiday shortened week. Remember, it doesn't necessarily take a ton of volume to continue a slide. It can occur just on the withdrawal of bids for whatever reason.
This is a time to pay attention to some economic reports. Have a very good start to the evening, and a continued good vacation if you are currently on holiday.
TraderJoe
Thanks TJ.
ReplyDeletewelcome.
DeleteWe do have a gap higher in VIX as one would expect at the onset of a 3rd or C wave. The monkey-business around 4200 looks to me like Powell still firmly in control.
ReplyDeleteGood morning all. Here is the ES 30-min intraday wave-counting-screen updated with daily pivot points (classic calculation) and local fractals.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/1ZOHJxLH/
The prior three down (red) fractals have been exceeded lower, and there is one new daily lower low.
TJ
ES 30-min; now down to S2 (through it), and taken out 27 May daily low.
DeleteTJ
A financial pro expounds on why we are headed for a major breakout higher. He might be right of course but judging by this morning there might be a bit of pain to experience first.
ReplyDeletehttps://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_mobile/public/inline-images/GPC62213.png?itok=o9c_kHig
His only fault, perhaps is that he failed to take into account that there are 5 up waves on this chart separated by 4 down waves. When he sees no reason why the current market won't breakout to the upside he obviously hasn't been studying elliott waves.
ES 30-min; now down to S3 pivot. Prior four closes were all below intraday Bollinger Band. Odds getting lower 1 - 2% of additional closes outside of the band. Not impossible - just getting lower. Reminder of Unemployment Claims coming out at bottom of the hour.
ReplyDeleteTJ
ES daily .. as of this morning, the daily slow stochastic is below the 80 level at 77. Let's watch to see if the 80 level is regained or not during the day. Also, the 18-day SMA is around 4,162, and watch for a close above or below it.
ReplyDeleteTJ
08:15 EDT (MW): ADP adds +978,000 private sector jobs.
ReplyDeleteTJ
ES 30-min; close inside the band; resets the number of consecutive candles.
ReplyDeleteTJ
ReplyDelete8:30a (MW)
Breaking Regular U.S. jobless claims drop to 20,000 to 385,000 at end of May
TJ
4hr - pre-open look -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3cbP7.png
From SentimenTraders (interesting) -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.sentimentrader.com/blog/where-are-we-in-the-typical-sentiment-cycle/
Stocks above 50ma - currently
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3cbPB.png
DXY (4hr) update -
ReplyDeleteyesterday - https://funkyimg.com/i/3cbtH.png
today (so far) - https://funkyimg.com/i/3cbPG.png
Workin' on it.
Well, gosh Wally. It would be swell if the market could make a 1.618 wave down to better prove a third wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/AkU7hvKm/
If not, then perhaps an expanding diagonal, right Beav? The orange dashed line is the prior support/resistance line.
TJ
..well that didn't last long. Lol.
DeleteES 30-min : back to intraday 18-per SMA.
DeleteET, Would you have an updated gold chart?
ReplyDeleteAccording to degree labeling, the daily gold futures chart looks like this. There is no overlap with minute ((iv)) and minute ((i)), and minute ((iii)) is too long in price to be classified as a sub-wave.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ZEGv3yvQ/
I'm not sure how this will play out, right now there are only three waves down. Further lows are needed for an impulse, or it is possible to go over-the-high again for a Flat correction.
TJ
Thank You!
Deletehttps://schrts.co/KgXwcuqq
ReplyDeleteYesterday’s close
SPY (15min) - testing 200ma (from below)
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: here are the updated fractals.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/6cfoumwe/
TJ
SPY 5-min; only three waves up, until there is a fourth and fifth. Also, didn't make 1.618 on the upside.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/k62q4XiF/
TJ
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Qvcingfn/
ReplyDeleteNo overlap on the Nasdaq yet. There still is potential for a lower low today - which likely would be a smaller 5th wave of this current wave down - be it C or 3.
You might want to look closer. NDX did overlap.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/9NhENqQW/
ReplyDeleteLooks like overlap might occur on the Nasdaq which opens up the possibility of an expanding diagonal down.
TJ where would a 4th wave go to and still be legal. Could it close the entire gap from this morning and still be the proposed diagonal down?
fourth wave can typically go 62-85% of the length of wave two in an expanding diagonal. But, it only invalidates above two.
DeleteTJ
Thanks
DeleteStill lean to the printing machine.
ReplyDeleteGonna get mean if we have to wean.
A new post is started for the next day.
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