The chart below is the second post this weekend. If you have not read the first post yet, you may wish to do so. There are now 164 bars on the chart, and another higher high on an Elliott Wave Oscillator divergence. I have numbered the A & B waves for reference with the text. The C waves are not shown for clarity but are at (W), and will be at (Y) when completed.
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| ES Futures - 2 Day - Wedge |
Have an excellent rest of the weekend. And in the future let's commit to be smarter and to act before having to deal with the fate of what has happened in the Miami collapse. Similar things have happened with other infrastructure in this country (bridges, water systems, etc.). The failure to deal with the reported structural deficiencies is just one measure of the extreme complacency and disdain of the wealth in this country for the rule of law and lack of fairness for some of the people who helped get them there.
TraderJoe
RSP/SPX - A turning worm?
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/JnjZC3hR/rspspx.png
Don't know a whole lot about counting Elliott waves. I do know a thing or two about price action. Went long on the re-capture of the critical round number. No disrespect to T.J's expertise.
ReplyDelete:)
'NOT' interested in your trades on this site. I have been very consistent in telling everyone else the same, so don't think I am singling you out. I'm not. The 18 day SMA was also very close to that area, and I resumed the up count as I said I would 'in advance' and not 'in arrears' as you are now stating. Check the posts.
DeleteTJ
Thank you Joe
ReplyDeleteVery clear and helpful
..welcome!
DeleteNew highs - new lows (wkly) -
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/50RPQwzc/NH-NL.png
good work!
DeleteSPY (2day) - observations
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/MGCWqWZB/TLs.png
QUAD (wkly,dly) - looks like a nice Weinstein possibility
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/8CcQ049s/quad.png
DXY (qrtly) - thoughts (long term) -
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/9MSKF15z/dxy.png
ALL - please note comments are now back under moderation. It's not only because some of the flamers and self-claimed authorities are back, but also because I will be specifically limiting all comments to topics which relate to Elliott Wave. If you have a legitimate wave comment or technical analysis which is directly related, then I hope you can put up with a brief delay in order to further our education in wave counting. As you can see from the above 2-day chart, sometimes a wave count takes a 'very long time' to unravel. We suggested this Primary ((B)) wave 'could take longer' than it's prior Intermediate (B) wave, up, and it has. Therefore, it seems like there is no rush to 'have to' publish a comment within 5 minutes. I will do my best to get to the comments every few hours.
ReplyDeleteTJ
VIX (mthly) - A different perspective
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/WbDMqkhR/vix.png
Nice observation. Good work. Keep it up.
DeleteTJ
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-06-25/transitory-inflation-joke-hyperinflation-reality.
ReplyDeleteThe reasoning in this article seems to be sound and is backed up with historical precedent. We will have corrections (probably one starting very soon) but the possibility of significantly higher equity prices is very real. Until we get higher interest rates the US government will not be worried about it's debt service obligations. Once the government does get worried about it's debt it will start turning the screws on the Fed and tapering talk will transform into how big of an axe they will wield to reduce money printing, bond buying, asset purchases etc. etc.. I think that how MUCH inflation and how FAST it occurs are the key to timing an overall market top. But, It will pay to keep in mind that the market will not wait for the official stats to prove that rising rates are the new normal - rather it will inform us first that that is what is occurring.
..take the period off the hyper-link to read the article.
DeleteTJ
https://www.tradingview.com/x/dW4Vq7u4/
ReplyDeleteI recall very clearly in 2014 when I had my EW subscription the analysts were arguing the possibility of B wave for the Dow. At that time they put the upper limit of a B wave at 1.54% the length of A. That limit has NOT been reached yet in the DOW today and it comes in at around 35715. I would say that undoubtedly the Nasdaq has been in an impulsive rise, accelerated by QE but that the jury is still out on the DOW.
There is a better way to perform your study - which leads to more accurate results.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/oIIcbWjv/
Step 1 - turn on 'magnet mode' - lower left.
Step 2 - pick the standard Fibonacci retrace tool.
Step 3 - type in the number 1.54 over-writing one of the numbers.
The result is 35,700.23 and not the additional 15 points.
I have shown clearly that the Nasdaq is not impulsive as there are overlaps that don't allow an impulse count.
http://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2021/05/nq-100-interim-report.html
TJ
Thoughts on GSG / GSCI commodity index TJ?
ReplyDeleteFull GSCI chart from 1969 found here:
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gsci
What I see on GSG (I am not an expert, and it is commodities so degrees are labeled with a pinch of salt!) since 2009:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/uiQAF7RB/
Is it a downward impulse wave with an extended first wave? WXYXZ wave? Can't be a diagonal since 4 doesn't overlap 1...might be irrelevant if 5 wave impulse or WXYXZ because it's commodities?
Here's what I have looked at since the 2019 low:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Gw02vqcC/
I am unsure what to make of it, but what I can say is that I will be watching the fib-based trend extension 1.618 level first and foremost. I'd chart the 2-day if I could to follow the eight-fold path.
I realize how you might have an interest in this, but according to its description it is a blended 'mish-mash' of commodities and cash.
Delete"GSG is a commodity pool tracking a version of the S&P GSCI, giving it fairly neutral exposure to the broad energy commodities market. Instead of holding contracts in the underlying commodities, GSG only holds long-dated contracts on the GSCI itself, as well as sometimes quite substantial cash and T-Bill assets. The fund has exposure to the same commodities in the same weights. These commodities are weighted by reference to world production statistics. Only contracts sufficient liquidity are eligible. GSG offers great coverage of plain vanilla broad commodities. As a commodity pool, GSG reports any cap gains marked to market on a K-1 at a blended rate."
So I don't follow it or have much of an interest in it.
Your downward count could also just be the corrective (W)-(X)-(Y) and it would fit the channel better. Also, you might want to try to identify the triangles.
TJ
Thanks TJ. And for what it is worth GSG is an ETF so it is not as consistent with GSCI as GSP which is an ETN. For anyone else wondering...FWIW the top GSCI weighting is WTI crude. Ticket USOIL is at trend line since 2009 currently, so I am highly curious of what comes next.
DeleteSure seems like mood is B wave characteristic.
ReplyDeleteThanks for taking the time and writing out the steps for the tradingview tool.
ReplyDeleteAs your post today shows the S&P's proposed B Wave has hit 1.786 of A. (thanks for that, as I was unaware of the ratio hit) Might it not be a good idea to ring the alarm bells that we are at a top? Or at least give more weight to the possibility of this, right here and now, being the top for the Nasdaq and the S&P. I think it's unlikely that all indexes will top on the same day. Your already out on a ledge with the B Wave prediction, why not take a couple of more steps? :-) Your shorter term count (posted on June 22nd) has the 4th wave significantly larger in time than wave 2 and this might allow you to shorten Wave 4 and place the beginning of Wave at an earlier point.
Welcome. A sizeable reversing candle is needed, with follow-through to the down-side. Then, the down wave 'must' be monitored to be sure it is not minuet (ii) of minute ((v)), and that this week's high is instead actually minute ((v)). It 'could be' that the Dow has truncated. It 'could be' that this S&P high which is the 'first' to diverge with the $NYAD is the entire top. But those are 'could be's'.
DeleteThe title of yesterday's post says there has not been a correction, yet, but perhaps soon. So I am at least expecting that. 'Wave counting' has its procedures. Trading is different.
TJ
Throw in with it The highest Skew reading ever recorded in the history of stock market-And
DeleteHighest margin debt ratio as well.
Btw last big Intermediate correction didnt have any NYAD Divergence either.
Both of the minute B's did.
Wave 5 at an earlier point
ReplyDeleteRight and a little bit of confirmation never hurt anyone, including traders.
ReplyDeleteAZRE - (dly) - A supplemental EW tool to consider - (and there's more) :o)
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/x89HSjWT/DualBBs.png
ES 2-Hr - Depending on the exact measurement of the low for wave ii ( there are several double-bottom candidates), the high for v 'should be' constrained to 4,286 - 88.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/TdE8kRP0/
TJ
TJ- is it possible that minuet ((v)) of minute (v) is tracing a EDT?
DeleteThanks in advance.
fibo, you have your symbols reversed; it's minuet (v) and minute ((v)); minuet is smaller than minute; one parenthesis is smaller than two parenthesis. Usually, diagonals have a 62% or greater retrace wave. I don't see any of those yet.
DeleteTJ
Sorry about that and thanks .
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/MlxdGu4L/
ReplyDeleteHere's a mirror count for the nasdaq 100 futures that tracks with TJ's S&P count. The upper limit for Nasdaq futures is 14523.25, all assuming we are in wave 5
ES 2-Hr; this may be the reversing candle needed to start the correction of the up wave. 1) the high needs to hold, 2) it would be great to see a lower low candle and lower close candle by noon, 3) if follow-through lower low candles are made, then the Fibonacci retracement ruler to the chart.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/zw5nLNM5/
TJ
The markets seem to have a classic internal divergence today.
ReplyDeletePositive move on the indexes yet Adv/Decline ratio is around 0.63 at this moment.
That could change ofc, but I don't see any indication it is improving, just the opposite actually.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/r6DwD8wT/
ReplyDeleteThe Nasdaq is aggressively testing a continuation scenario for the uptrend but the futures can still travel upward 50 points approximately and maintain the idea that this is a 5th wave.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/3sauqkm3/
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile on the Daily chart RSI is "so Far" confirming a larger wave up. Nothing short of a reversal back to zero by the end of the day will change the RSI reading.
SPXUSD (cfd, dly) - A look at dual momentum -
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/9FTzShh0/DualMo.png
Courtesy of SentimenTrader - something to be aware of -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.sentimentrader.com/blog/this-led-to-declines-every-time-in-the-past-93-years/
Great info and further evidence that whichever way the market pops and drops we are headed to a top of some type. As the post indicates, however, it could be a matter of "days or weeks".
DeleteAnyone else seeing a 3pdh with a move back to 4240?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/sNNajuxy/
ReplyDeleteThe Dow is best positioned to answer the question first - Will the market head lower from here. It has closed the morning gap which could indicate exhaustion. It is trading under the 5 minute 200 simple moving average. EW count has the form of ABC up. Likely the afternoon session at 2PM eastern will tell the story. A bullish start would indicate a 5th wave up for the Dow while a continuation lower would portend bigger moves lower.
A:D ratio continues to deteriorate, now at 0.53
ReplyDeleteShooting star candle on a triple divergence, Nasdaq 1 hour chart
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Z4kgP5LW/
30min - current look -
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/QN7gBK2C/30min.png
ES 15-min: I see only three waves down, so far, and the deep retrace. Will the correction be a flat? Don't know. Watch the high.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/v9r7w
TJ
.. or is a diagonal "a" wave starting? Don't know.
DeleteTJ
ES15-min; now at 90% level; the 'b' wave of a flat or the next impulse is possible.
DeleteTJ
..and so, too, is the second wave of a diagonal as long as not over the high. (Just lower probability).
DeleteTJ
Not surprisingly the Nasdaq futures have pushed the current count right to the limit at a high of 14517.62. I had earlier calculated a limit of 14523.25 for a fifth wave. Regardless on the Daily chart we'll likely have a RSI confirmation (short of a sudden collapse in the last half hour of trading) of the new highs which implies the next down wave will be corrective to be followed by newer highs later on.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/DNA3aqJE/
I'm not quite sure how you are getting these numbers. It looks to me like you are again using the inaccurate method of guestimating the high and low without anchoring the points with the magnet tool. Then, it doesn't look like you are using the recognized "Trend-Based Fib Extension Tool". Here is what I get, which differs by a couple of hundred points.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/3t39or1s/
Please do not use poor tools or make dogmatic-sounding comments unless you are sure of what you are doing (i.e. not estimating when clear tools are available) or you will confuse others on this blog and spread 'mis-information' rather than 'education' which is what this blog is about. If I have to, I will block such comments in the future, but hopefully you will adjust.
Thanks in advance,
TJ
There is a new post started for the next day. Comments remain on moderation. Only comments about the wave structure - or technical analysis related to it or other market sectors - is being accepted.
ReplyDeleteTJ