Both the ES futures and the Dow futures made new daily lows. In the Dow, it was sufficient to make a 78+% retrace wave. Here is the ES daily chart, below. In the ES futures, it was enough to near the lower daily Bollinger Band without hitting it.
 |
| ES Futures - Daily - Settle at the 18-day SMA |
Then, with a lot of whipping around intraday, prices rallied toward the end of the session to close just under or on the 18-day SMA, "the line in the sand". The DOW can still be in a triangle since the all time high (or a Flat wave as an alternate). In either case, it is likely the (c) wave lower in the Dow.
I also said that if the ES futures made a new all-time-high (which they did three days ago), then it might be possible to consider a diagonal in addition to the triangle. Right now, there is not as good evidence for a diagonal as a triangle. If it were to be a diagonal, then the first newer all-time high should only be (i) of a diagonal with the May low reverting to all of minute ((iv)), down. The down legs right now seem to be a bit more complex than simple zigzags, so that is keeping the diagonal count at bay for a bit.
Ignoring the diagonal discussion, above, for the time being, this can still be the (c) wave down of a barrier triangle in the ES futures, as we have shown before on several charts. In the end, it might wind up looking like a diagonal in many respects.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
https://schrts.co/wFNicxKh
ReplyDeleteNAAIM
Another high reading, but continuing divergence.
DeleteWhere have all the "leaders" gone?
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/7L8pJCSs/smh.png
Gold (wkly) - monitoring -
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/QMBhxMyM/gold.png
Gold (mthly) - C&H ?
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/YSmzQj4X/gold.png
👍 classic C&H. Bullard was a party pooper, lol. I appreciate his frankness.
DeleteIf it's deflation that's coming, cash will be king again.
DeleteWait for the inverted yield curve before getting defensive.
DeleteLine in the sand lost. Looks at nq weekly rsi divergence :)
ReplyDeleteGood morning all. Fyi only - ES daily futures probe below the lower daily BB band, reaching 4,173 earlier vs 4,176 for the lower band.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/GTZza31Q/
TJ
https://schrts.co/iKaiMBVF
ReplyDeleteLet’s see if the VIX can get to 25.
Courtesy of SentimenTrader -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.sentimentrader.com/blog/this-indicator-predicts-stocks-will-lose-36-through-2023/
ES tags daily S2 pivot; as below.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/4DqiROyX/
TJ
fyi - the 3 June low (a four-hour fractal) is 4,165; ES is close to it, but has not broken it yet.
DeleteTJ
..fyi .. there is 4,164; both the SPY and the ES have broken the 3 June 4-Hr fractal low.
DeleteTJ
SPY (15min) - an hour in -
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/nhPJxMpk/spy.png
DOW futures (fyi), the May low was 33,200; YM has reached 33,205 this morning so far. Cash appears to have broken that low already.
ReplyDeleteTJ
fyi ..YM futures have now busted that prior May low, as well.
DeleteStocks above 50ma currently around 36.
ReplyDeleteIt won this time over NYAD
Delete(again) :o)
DeleteTJ - it looks like 5 waves down to this untrained eye. Is that accurate? Thanks
ReplyDeleteES 5-min; this structure currently measures properly in time and price.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/v6k8y
It has already made the requisite lower low, but could go lower for a 'throw-under'.
TJ
..pop the top.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/v6kei
TJ
SPY 15min - inverted hammer. This could get the retrace going.
ReplyDeleteSPY (15min) - update
Deletehttps://i.postimg.cc/2SrPZzbN/spy15.png
Pullback symmetry - (dly)
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/Yq0kb51W/symmetry.png
Note: She also measures time. These 4 pbs were, 4,4,5,12 days.
DeleteThere are now five wave up - with the extension in the first wave - and three waves down to near 62%; the down wave 'could' spend more time in correction if it wishes.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/v6lf0
TJ
..take more time it did; and now greater than a 62% retrace. IFF the high is broken, the deeper retrace can support a 1.618 wave. Draw a channel if the high breaks, and see how it goes.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/v6m0v
TJ
VIX (dly) observations -
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/hj3CBLb4/vix.png
SPY (15min) - after moving back into OR (from breakdown), failed to move to high of OR (sign of weakness). Now back below.
ReplyDeleteLooks like a possible flat in progress.
Delete34ema is at top of OR.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/crCPezG1/
ReplyDeleteDoes this make any sense as a count for the Nasdaq right now?
TQQQ is on a sell signal as long as price stays under $112.70 approx.
W2 can't be a triangle, but a "B" or "X" can.
DeleteThanks....
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Db13LGZA/
DeleteQuite a huge divergence on the one hour chart for the Nasdaq
Fwiw, you have a reg. hidden div there as well. :o)
Delete;-)
ReplyDeleteNow that the Nikkie has topped or begin to thrust down in supercycle wave (C) it should be pretty easy to track the U.S. Markets down. "C' waves have the properties of third waves...so World markets will decline very fast.For me it explains why this whole move from the 2008 low was in EWT 3's.
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/kGx9VnCS/2021-06-18-16-07-40.png
Another Nikkie chart the "top"
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/XvwTcsmM/2021-06-18-16-23-07.png
None of your wave counts follows Elliott wave rules and guidelines. They can not be taken seriously.
DeleteBtw the 1929 and 1987 analog is in play. Yesterday was the 28th day. Today was the 29th day and we had a break away gap down right on schedule. Monday should see another gap and it will be a continuation gap. We should reach bottom in 26 days from today. Enjoy the ride down.
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteWhether this breaks rules or not it fits Japan's wave structure.
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/L4jndgfS/2021-06-19-15-45-41.png