We noted earlier on that the Dow had not made it's five waves up just yet. Today it looks like the Dow got its fifth wave well underway. Here is a comparison of the Dow and the S&P futures.
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| S&P500 (ES) vs DJIA (YM) Futures - 2 Hr - Five Waves (xi) |
Today, the S&P again made another marginal new high. Based on the Dow's count, it suggests the S&P500 is in its fifth wave also. Today, was the end of the month and the end of the quarter. There wasn't much in the way of the proverbial window dressing except in the overnight market - as shown by the futures. The cash markets do not show even these mild retrace waves. Tomorrow is the first of the new month and the new quarter. Often, not always, these days show the typical inflows from company bonuses, 401k plans, pension funds, dividend reinvestment schemes and the like.
Yesterday, we counted only three-wave-down in the cash market. We said we could go over the top again. We did. The daily bias remains up. The ES daily slow stochastic is embedded. The up wave of minuet (i) or minute ((v)) is not over until it's over.
Because we can count an impulse without overlaps, we do not see this portion of the wave as a diagonal. In the Dow, wave v should remain shorter than wave iii. Same with the ES futures.
Comments remain on moderation to foster discussion on the wave count and its technical indicators only. Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Positive HD target reached. Now watching how price reacts here.
ReplyDeleteCourtesy of SentimenTrader -
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The 'first-of-the-month' money is coming in, but, so far is more anemic than the +30 to +50 point days. Here is an ES 30-min chart with updated daily pivot points and local fractals.
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TJ
Hrly cfd, ending exp. diag?
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..such a thing is 'possible'. A 'contracting' variety might also be constructed if the high is exceeded again.
DeleteTJ
..just 'a way' to get over the high again: in three waves or more.
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TJ
ES 5-min; now over the high - likely with the power of a iii'rd wave.
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TJ
ES 5-min, probably a good idea to draw an internal parallel to try to help locate wave iv of ((C)).
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Note the relationship between ii and ((B)).
TJ
An aside - DXY (mthly) - Coming out of correction?
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Hi Tj.
ReplyDeleteThere must be some end to this crazy liquidity in the markets from March 2009. The inflation is up and the commodities too. 666 to 4300 and it seems we are in a big bull market with negligible corrections.
no, manu. One mustn't let ones opinions and frustrations stop one from just counting the waves, patiently, zen-like. The Covid crash in 2020 was not a 'negligible' correction.
DeleteTJ
ES 5-min; higher high, likely into wave v of ((C)). Note waves ii and iv of ((C)) have alternation.
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TJ
ES daily : there is 4,310+ at the R2 daily pivot, as shown earlier; with the daily upper Bollinger Band 4,311. Just fyi ...
ReplyDeleteTJ
Will the so-called "Smart-Money" take some off the table ahead of tomorrow's employment report? We'll see.
DeleteTJ
ES 5-min; first breach of lower short-term channel line.
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TJ
ES 5-min; back-test of trend line, failure candle lower, and overlap on wave iii - not critical but a warning. Also, very short term MACD curled lower.
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TJ
Hrly (alternate exp ED) -
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