After the overnight rally, when the cash market opened, it popped a bit, but then began to form what looks and counts like a regular triangle on the ES 5-min chart, below.
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| ES Futures - 5 min - Triangle |
By the settle, the triangle did not provide a clear breakout, hitting the upper wall at 4,261. IF the up wave pops in the overnight, it would suggest the better count is five-waves up on the hourly chart - which we showed in the comments. If there are five waves up, then that might suggest that the best fourth wave count for the ES is this running flat wave.
Remember, we noted the DOW made the lower low at wave ((iv)). Maybe that's all there is to it. No muss, no fuss. As I'm writing this, I see the futures have broken 4,262 in the overnight session. This lends more credence to being in wave ((v)), now.
I do not yet think that any diagonals are involved, as the current proportions for a diagonal would not be typical, and we do not yet know the up wave is ended.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
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ReplyDeleteThat would be nice to see
DeleteThanks 🙏 I’m short term interested in that development. As you note, dojistars often do indicate trend changes.
DeleteNDX - new link:
Deletehttps://i.postimg.cc/L6N5yfYg/tristar-1.png
NOW (mthly/wkly) Using the monthly -
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SPXUSD (cfd) (dly) - observations
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👍
DeleteGood morning all.. SPY cash (10-min); price has popped the triangle. Now it is a question of if a downside retrace of the up wave begins.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ttl82scd/
TJ
https://www.tradingview.com/x/c7H2ouWr/
ReplyDeleteIf the S&P is in a smaller degree fifth wave, I measure the limit of this rise to 4281.04 which should lead to a correction back down to 4240 as a start. If we see beyond 4281.04 then we would have to be in a larger wave up
SPY cash 10-min; potential triangle target is shown. If a reversal occurs (hasn't yet), then first target would be the first gap-fill.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/dmQdKsdZ/
TJ
fyi - triangle target met.
DeleteSentimenTraders (Stat Box) -
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/g27yM1h6/zero.png
Important part of the puzzle here.
DeleteSince there are no divergences in sentiment at the moment I take it this should be an indication of further upside in the future or are levels extreme? How do you interpret this?
SPY (cash) 10-min; chart update -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Bc8r12gl/
TJ
Meanwhile the Dow is 100 points below from a .786 retrace of the last down wave. If another larger own wave is in the future this is not a bad place for it to start from.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/KYh9qENx/
Might want to take a look at where that diagonal is at on NASDAQ.
ReplyDeleteSPY (Cash) 10-min; now sitting on a minor intraday trend line.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/oby4S9X5/
TJ
https://www.tradingview.com/x/9syvPIKg/
ReplyDeleteNasdaq Daily Chart, Price must turn or stay down today to maintain an RSI divergence
..nice chart .. good work!
DeleteTJ
I think that last push up is either complete or has one small degree wave 5 left.
DeleteOn this last push up starting 5/12 - 3 of 3 on RSI looks like it was on 6/14 with 5 of 3 completing on 6/17. 3 of 5 appears to have completed yesterday morning. When I look at this on 15 min it looks like 5 might be complete or perhaps in a very small degree 4 of 5 of 5. It's also diverging on lower time frames on RSI so you should see a pop down on that chart tomorrow.
Pop down I mean your RSI on that chart should turn on daily basis, assuming no surprises this afternoon..
DeleteThanks TJ.
DeleteYeah I agree Dan, and if we do get the turn down and the follow through it will imply a drop of 600 points. We might get minor new highs also but on another divergence.
Treasury yield popping too.
ReplyDeleteES / SPY (10 min) .. 90% up wave.
ReplyDelete..now over the top again.
DeleteA bit lost here. From 21st low [now ((v))], what wave of ((v)) are we in currently?
ReplyDeleteThanks
Top picking is a dangerous game. There is another way to limit the S&P to 4284.21. This is all assuming we are in a wave 5 right now with miniscule corrections - it seems unlikely at the moment.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/kp1ignPj/
Delete"blowin' off"!
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/j9TUpp2Z/
ReplyDeleteThe Dow is 30 points shy of .786 with divergences on the 10 min chart
The only thing the bears achieved today was a few ticks down in the daily RSI. It might mean something or it could be obliterated on Monday. The Dow is in a delicate position closing near the .786 retrace of it's previous down wave. The S&P could be rising in 3 wave moves but an actual reversal and downtrend would be nice to see.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/V4Luqs6k/
Ticks down in the RSI of the Nasdaq.
DeleteFinancials had a strong kickback for the week as well as djt, but sell signals are intact on both. Dxy and Tyx look ready for more upside. To me everything looks aligned for a general sell off next week.
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