I have shown this count before as the Interest Rate view (you can see it at this LINK). Here is the same count shown as the 10-Year Note view.
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| ZN (US 10-Year) Futures - 2 Day - EWO Crosses Zero Line |
The position of the Elliott Wave Oscillator seems to bode well for a fourth wave, probably a "running triangle". The recent up wave since the beginning of June is sufficient to validate the triangle by crossing back-over the low of Minor 3, as required by the 'rule' for running triangles.
A fifth wave down is possible which would be shorter than Minor wave 3, because Minor 3 is shorter than Minor wave 1.
This is the second post this weekend, and if you haven't seen the first one, yet, you might want to read it now.
TraderJoe
Thanks!
ReplyDeleteSPX/M2 (mthly) - [if interested]
https://i.postimg.cc/Z0kWBtpf/ratio.png
The DJI/M2 has not yet reached its 2007/2020 peaks.
DeleteXLU/SPY - (dly) Early signs of possible risk off -
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/J4sfwr5V/RiskOff.png
XLU is pushing the bollinger bands higher I just don't see a breakout in volume. Maybe this is the initial test as RSI is still around 55. A rejection at RSI 66 could retest the 20day. Wait and see.
DeleteRSI is showing a small (subtle) reg. hidden div between 5/27 and 6/1 troughs. Suggests reaching 60 (or beyond). RSI mov avgs, price mov avgs, and Macd all near crossing upwards virtually together. Should they occur, would suggest a nice move up. But, hasnt been confirmed yet. :o)
Deletenice work!
DeleteBut the triangle in tnx is busted. Doesn't mean its still not the 4h. Or am I looking at wrong tnx chart
ReplyDeleteLooks like some money is moving out of stocks into bonds. But the CRB/TLT ratio is strong. I also took a look at CRB/SPY monthly. Very similar to 2000 Again I'm brand new to ratio analysis.
ReplyDeletehttps://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/x/XmfesAqV.png
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/8/8ofKjyTy.png
DJI (yrly) - the trend is your friend. (Had some time to kill, lol) -
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/fLRgs2PR/Trend.png
I’m going to be watching the markets reaction to fib extension 4300. It could be resistance and start a summer correction. ATB
ReplyDeleteDitto. As long as Powell and company continue to defend 4200, I will be watching to see how price behaves there. One EW count I saw this week-end is wildly bullish-upside target 4900! Not saying impossible as current distances from monthly and quarterly emas already put us in uncharted waters,no pun intended. If that happens without a meaningful correction I will probably turn off my screens for a few years and go sailing as trading as we know it would have ceased to exist. VIX not at new low so vol still divergent and that pattern says trouble ahead. I have no clue which call is correct so I watch patiently to find out...
DeleteWe might see a 13 handle on the VIX before this wave is over.
DeleteLikely substantially more. The current VIX falling wedge is bigger than the last, and the angle of market's current rising wedge much steeper than the last iteration.
DeleteYea, I’m talking short term wave. If we are in larger wave 3 - VIX should be below 10.
DeleteGood morning all. Here is the ES 30-min intraday wave counting screen updated with daily pivots and local fractals.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/JuuvWr5U/
The intraday price bias is down, which fights with the daily price bias being up.
TJ
..the first down (red) fractal back has now been exceeded lower.
DeleteTJ
DOW futures; new daily lower low.
ReplyDeleteTJ
DOW cash, too.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/3lOyAP6v/
TJ
ES 30-min; touches S1 support level, and bounces.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Have moved below OR (SPY 15min), but not much conviction (at this point).
ReplyDelete200ma at 422.
DeleteSPY (15min) slow grind -
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/Fs6qY4Jc/spy15.png
Bounced at RSI 40 level. Now retesting midline. This is confluent with btm of OR.
DeleteES 30-min; now an 18-per vs 100-per intraday MA cross. This might provide an upward resistance area.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/jkWTodaq/
TJ
My lawn grows faster than this, lol.
ReplyDeleteTNX - rates should get to 2%. It better hurry up and get there because when the fed actually starts tapering rates will start falling, you watch.
ReplyDeleteAgree. In this FOMC meeting, maybe fed announces a future date to start tapering and yields spike where as when it actually starts rates will fall.
Deletecorrect ... this is exactly how it works
DeleteQE by fed ,and rates go up
qe stops ..........rates go down
Take a look ar the current trajectory of the FED balance sheet, don't lsiten to their meaningless jaw-boning.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteReg. hidden div. on low at posited "head" of pattern. (not noted on chart).
DeleteDXY (replacement link)
Deletehttps://i.postimg.cc/XYzp7s8v/dxy.png
ES 30-min; back to 18-per intraday, and daily pivot point PP.
ReplyDeleteTJ
..also, a new down (red) fractal at the low of today. The double-bottom ES has four higher lows on either side of it now.
Delete..now back to intraday 100-per SMA.
Delete..now back to upper intraday band; upward overlap and difficult count except possibly triangle.
DeleteTJ
..now back to R1 resistance level pivot.
Delete..and ticks over the overnight high.
DeleteDJI (dly) update on fib series projection -
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/rsLwdmzn/DJI.png
SPY (15min) e.o.d. -
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/MKmmpfXL/spy15.png
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDelete