Tuesday, June 22, 2021

All Fourth Wave Options Still on the Table

From the daily chart, below, there is still a way an upward (d) wave could bang into a horizontal barrier. However, depending on what happens in the overnight, the red-dotted line indicates that perhaps the running triangle variation would happen instead. And, if the up wave goes significantly over the prior (b) wave, then perhaps the diagonal is forming.  


With regards to the potential diagonal, rather than the potential triangle, the rule would be that if (b) is (i) of a diagonal, and (d) is (iii) of a diagonal, then wave (iii) must by rule make a higher high than wave (i), the current wave (b).

The internal wave count of this up wave has a couple of options, some of which we showed in the comments for the prior post.

Let's see how it goes.

TraderJoe

19 comments:

  1. One item to note is the 'speed' of the current rise. Therefore, a 'running flat' fourth must also be on the table.

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
  2. Perhaps you've covered this and I missed it -
    Why couldn't your ((iii) be w1 of the diagonal, your (a) w2, (b) w3, (c) w4, and now in w5?
    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not out of the question, but wave one would be a 'grossly' different size than wave three. That would just be very poor proportions for a diagonal, but not impossible. Meanwhile, triangle has better proportions currently.

      TJ

      Delete
    2. Looking at your NQ Proves its Case, its w1 is far more different in size than its w3, but that didnt seem to be an issue there?
      Thanks

      Delete
    3. So, if you read the piece, and I'm sure you did but just don't remember it, I said if we were in a Primary ((B)) wave, then the same three zigzags 'could' just be that, right? Three zigzags (W),(X),(Y),(X),(Z) and I said, this is the 'only' index where the overlapping count is 'legal' based on EW rules. In other words, I'm not saying it is a diagonal. I'm saying it 'could' be called one - which is why I didn't not 'rule out' your suggestion. I simply suggest it has lower probability. Again, try to think less yes-no, and more about probability unless 'rules' are broken.

      TJ

      Delete
  3. SPX - looks more like a diagonal to me. If so, when this last micro wave is finished, we should head back to 4056 quickly.

    ReplyDelete
  4. SentimenTrader - always interesting

    https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog/when-almost-every-stock-rises-this-happens/

    ReplyDelete
  5. Watch for the length of down waves. If they become longer than the total travel of the b wave, the degree may turn down to the start of the (e) wave.

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
  6. Hi TJ,

    How do you currently count gold off of the Aug 2020 top? Do you think the (C) wave completed to complete the ((X)) wave? Or do you think the (C) wave is still underway as some sort of diagonal or expanded diagonal? Something else?

    Thanks in advance!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Steven,

      I know what you are trying to do here, but I won't play along. All I will do is show you my long standing dollar count, below.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/JePUOsqi/

      I called the bottom in the Dollar to the week, and also called the B wave flat to within a day. The dollar is now at risk for a C wave, up. That C wave could be a little as 0.382 to the prior 4th waves, or it could go to 0.618, and take much more time to become more proportional.

      Regardless, if the dollar is likely to go up, then I still think GOLD is going down. How it gets there could be a mess.

      Regards,
      TJ

      Delete
    2. Thanks for your perspective TJ! Daily admirer of your work.

      -Steven

      Delete
    3. Welcome, and thanks for saying!
      TJ

      Delete
  7. ES 1-Hr : we're getting another real stinker of a wave-set, so it depends which way the fractals break here, as in the chart below.

    https://invst.ly/v849e

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ..i.e iv 'could be' a triangle forming, unless the lows bust hard.
      TJ

      Delete
  8. ES 15-min; mmm.hmmm - more 78.6% baloney waves in both directions. A triangle like this could break either direction. Watch the fractals shown.

    https://invst.ly/v84oo

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ES: 15-min first fractal back has broken lower; not the second one (yet)

      https://invst.ly/v84us

      TJ

      Delete
  9. There is a new post started for the next day.

    ReplyDelete