Here is a reminder of the only 'legal' Elliott Wave count we have been tracking for months and months, according to the 'rules' of the Elliott Wave Principle, outlined by Frost & Prechter. It is the Expanding Diagonal in 3-3-3-3-3 form.
We again publish this count even as other sites are pursuing known unallowed counts. Several sites are counting a contracting diagonal down to wave 3 in the diagram below even though this violates the rules for the contracting diagonal because the center wave is the longest. They do this and even acknowledge they are breaking the rules, but they say this must be some kind of exception. And one such site now has the unmitigated gaul to ask you for $199 to train you in how to count Elliott Waves when they have called the wave structure incorrectly now three times to try to sell their bullish interpretation to be used to attract you to their hedge fund. We will break no such rules. We continue to sell you nothing. We just continue to ask you to learn to count by the rules.
For our part, we said in the Aug 30 post - viewable at this
LINK - that the minute ((a)) wave of the fifth wave often comes down to very near the terminal of wave
3. And look at where the five minuet waves (i)-thru-(v) have taken the minute ((a)) wave down to! Bullseye! We showed you the weekly sentiment reading
moments before the market's current upturn and not for several months before. Further, we said we would expect the Minor
5 wave to take more time than the Minor
3 wave, and it still might.
The next consideration is the minute ((b)) wave, up. This wave has already traveled into the area of the prior wave (iv) and that is all it is required to do. But the up wave can get more aggressive. We have seen some 'B' waves of the fifth wave that attempt to test the upper declining trend line. It doesn't have to, but if it does, just don't be surprised. The question mark by the ((b)) wave indicates we simply do not know the extent of or the shape of the ((b)) wave in advance. From here, the ((b)) wave could be a zigzag, a flat, a multiple zigzag or a triangle. All are acceptable in this wave 5 zigzag down.
Keep in mind that diagonals are still low-probability patterns. They must prove themselves in every detail. It remains to be seen if this one does. This is the second post this weekend, and if you have not yet, you may wish to read that one also.
Have an excellent rest of the weekend.
https://schrts.co/cNNCneSG
ReplyDeleteTNX - 5-5.25% looks probable from chart and core PCE which is at 4.9%
TimH, TLT close was very interesting on Friday. I know TBT has been an option this year even though I haven't traded it.
DeleteTLT - I’m waiting to buy when the fed is done raising rates. The bond market will provide that answer for us.
DeleteThanks for all the work!
ReplyDeleteWelcome. TJ.
DeleteET, I appreciate the time you have spent explaining this correction. I must say corrective waves are my weakness, so I haven't studied them in depth. I mean who needed to with all the FED money :) .
ReplyDeleteWelcome. TJ.
DeleteSPY cash 30-min: has the new daily high, likely validating the prior triangle.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/g6hOXID3/
TJ
AAPL looks to me like a completed abc structure (30 minute chart) thank you for your updates!
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: here's a thought before the cash open. The contracting structure is so complex it is almost uncountable. But it could be/become a barrier triangle. Given that the cash market is not open yet, wave ((C)) could be lower, yet.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/37JyFZr9/
TJ
I do not at this time think it is a contracting diagonal as all of the hourly closes are below the high of wave iii. And the waves are too complex. TJ.
DeleteSeems to be in a corrective channel at this time.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/sSK5mvj
yep .. but this could be the second 'a', with now five-up. TJ
DeleteES 30-min: market 'couldn't wait' to go up. No 'e' wave on triangle. 'Running' fourth of some kind with final length = ii. Now in v.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/dNapyCPY/
TJ
The 3m/10y is now inverted. That’s the final nail in the coffin for me. We are in a recession and as the 2y/10y reverses the inversion the data will continue to get worse.
ReplyDeleteSPX Cash 30-min: from a degree labeling perspective, the prices between the green lines pretty much "must" be a triangle. Otherwise, it is very, very difficult to explain how smaller degree - and shorter in price - 'b' is longer in time than larger degree and longer in price (a). Further, it would be hard to explain how 'c' down is longer in time than 'a' down, but 'c' is shorter in price.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/gpmEQdOm/
The 'three waves up' also allows the possibility for a much 'longer in time' Flat wave if prices get within 90% of the low.
TJ
..the triangle also provides a typical 'thrust' target of the widest width of the triangle added to the breakout point. Therefore, we must allow that (c) = (a) is 'possible' but not required, and cash 3,890 - 4,000 could occur if wave v extends. TJ.
DeleteTj
ReplyDeleteWhat levels broken will suggest B over and C down started.
And do we need some more time for B wave or has it completed all requirements already?
There is 'no level' because as I said the minute ((b)) wave can be a Flat wave. That means it can go down to/through the low again if it wants. The minute ((b)) wave can also EXTEND to be a double zigzag or a triple zigzag. Right now only one zigzag is shown. Further, while the 'minimum' requirements for a minute ((b)) wave have been met, the minute ((b)) wave 'can take' or 'could take' as much time as the minute ((a)) wave down. LASTLY, the minute ((b)) wave can become a much longer in time very large TRIANGLE itself.
DeleteSo, the best posture now is to use the technicals in this area: the position of the daily Bollinger Bands, and the 18-day SMA.
"B" waves are notoriously difficult. Don't be impatient, and don't expect any 'magic bullet' answers from me or anyone else.
TJ
Please also see the next day's post for further explanation. TJ.
DeleteSPX 5-min: diagonal or triangle going into tech earnings? The green dashed line is for a triangle. IF the diagonal invalidates (i.e. prices too high), then the triangle takes over.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/FsYPprv8/
The 'grinding' is getting carried to the extreme.
It is looking more like the green-dashed triangle; I will reconfigure. TJ
DeleteSPX 5-min: here is the triangle configuration.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/btIaHch1/
TJ
This provides 'warning levels' below the ((C)) wave, and below the ((A)) wave.
DeleteTJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTraderJoe