Here is the ES hourly chart showing the recent movement off of the low. While nothing is certain, here are the applicable Fibonacci measurements on this time scale.
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| ES Futures - 1 Hr - Measurements |
The prior post showed the first five-waves-up as a potential leading diagonal, and possibly an (a) wave. This was likely validated by higher highs in both the ES and SPY cash.
The common extensions for the expanded flat are shown as typically 1.618 x a or 2.618 x a measured from the b wave. Price is at that second level now and has just passed the 50% retracement of the potential (a) wave. Being beyond the 50% level means that an up wave of 1.272 or 1.618 times the (a) wave could be supported. If one of those two wave lengths occur, price would exceed the prior b wave high.
The Fibonacci confluences with the downward retracements are shown. The key question whether price will actually resume upward from this location. The measurements only indicate the odds are in favor of this happening. They make no promises.
Have an excellent rest of the weekend.
TraderJoe
Up to the 18ma again, quite the battle
ReplyDeleteGap up and sideways consolidation for remainder of day. Hard to say more at this point. TJ.
ReplyDeleteI have a hard time believing we are done with ((a)). Looks like its just trying to get to the other side of the channel.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/AZWcAed
This would be about the max for a triangle to work out. Maybe I should of put more weight into that reversal candle and the flat that followed. The last wave sure did not channel nice but these are impulses within 3 wave structures, and its been my observation that they are just not as clean.
DeleteIts still alive, we would be in d now.
DeleteSPY 30-min: this is what I see so far. The black count gives more weight to diagonal (a), as diagonals are 'often' A waves. The red count would track an impulse upward but depends on breaking (c) = (a) equality.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/IcnsdVLG/
TJ
SPY 30-min: both overlap warnings were hit. Reconfiguring as three-wave sequences. 'Possible' diagonal, but lower odds. Alternate red count is the top if BBRider's triangle which is still a possibility - but also low odds - due to beyond 78.6%.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Rne1GfbJ/
TJ
Diagonal depends on making a new high. TJ.
DeleteFYI - McMillan Spike Peak buy signal triggered as of market close yesterday.
ReplyDeleteBullish count could be a 1,2,i,ii off the low with a strong 3 to go over top channel line.
ReplyDeleteI think the claimed smaller degree i would be longer in time than the claimed larger degree 1, and this might be a degree violation.
DeleteTJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ