Although I don't publish it every day, here is a reminder of the intraday wave-counting-screen. It is always the ES futures 30-min chart. And while I don't publish the chart every day, I generate it for my own wave-counting-purposes every day.
Reminder that it includes: 1) 18-period SMA, red line "the line in the sand", 2) 18-period Bollinger Bands with +/- 2STD (grey bands), 3) the 100-period SMA (green), 4) the daily pivot points - classic calculation (for reference only) shown as orange and violet bars, 5) the Bill Willams fractals (2 period) shown as green and red up & down arrows.
Plotted in the indicator pane is the standard 14,3 slow stochastic (30-min intraday).
The chart is interpreted using the same rules/guidelines as in Ira Epstein's daily chart. Notice in last night's down move after five-six consecutive closes below the lower band, prices moved to the inside of the band.
Price bias is interpreted as positive if is above the intraday 18-per SMA, and negative below it (use in conjunction with the daily). The slow stochastic goes from embedded, over-bought, to over-sold and embedded using Ira's guidelines.
Those of you who have figured out Ira's "swing line" indicator can apply it as well. I do it in my head.
As of the open of trading this morning, it is clear there is a "battle going on" at the conjunction of the 18-period and 100-period SMA's, and it should be viewed that way.
Intraday, traders tend to get the most bearish when price is riding the lower band and makes several consecutive closes outside the band. Traders tend to get the most bullish when price is riding the upper band and makes several consecutive closes outside the band. This might be used as a contrary sentiment indication (again when used with the daily).
Ira advises never buying over an upper band or selling below a lower band on the daily and weekly charts. A similar filter can be used here when looking to identify the wave count. When consistently above the upper band or below the lower band, it might be a place where a significant wave terminal will occur. And inside bars might occur to consolidate or reverse the wave count and provide a better place where traders might enter/exit.
The Bill Williams fractals can be used as breakout/breakdown indicators.
Have an excellent start to the day.
TraderJoe
ES 30-min: added a note in the upper right. Target of the upper band missed (sign of weakness).
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TJ
ES 30-min: added a note in the lower right. The sign of weakness resulted in a break down below the first fractal back. The intraday bias switched to lower, when the red line was crossed, and the first target becomes the lower intraday band.
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Remember: the bands are "specifically designed to try to keep price trading within them 95% of the time".
TJ
ES 30-min: additional notes are in blue. After just missing the lower band, price returned to the moving averages to "figure out what to do next". The intraday bands have begun to narrow in a sign of possible/probable consolidation.
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Technically, the 18-period is now below the 100-period in a bearish cross (but given slightly less weight than the daily doing the same).
Remember: the bands are "specifically designed to try to keep price trading within them 95% of the time".
TJ
ES 30-min: new notes added in brown that the high of the cash session, and low of the cash session (in the futures) are new fractals. Not surprising, but this is how the market 'increases risk' associated with a count and/or a trade.
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Price is now also again trading below the 18-period and 100-period in accordance with the MA cross-over.
Remember: the bands are "specifically designed to try to keep price trading within them 95% of the time".
TJ
ES 30-min: price is now back to the 100-MA, and 'might' find it's resistance between the 100-MA and the upper band. One does not 'fight' the up wave, as it is also over the 18-SMA, the "line in the sand". The bias has temporarily flipped to positive. Chart is behind.
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Here is the chart with price back to the 100-MA. We expected consolidation based on the tighening bands, and we're getting it.
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There is now a new up (green fractal) at the lower high, too.
TJ
I'll be out for some errands this afternoon. Let's see how it goes. Reminder: payroll report tomorrow. TJ.
DeleteSPY 30-min: we now have a gap (on the right) 'under' a gap (on the left), resulting in no gap fill yet for the gap on the left.
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Revisiting the low is possible; forming a triangle first is possible. Price is at the 62% retrace level.
TJ
SPY 30-min: with the lower low, draw in this parallel. Breaking the upper parallel by a significant amount (a full bar or two) might indicate a triangle in formation.
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TJ
ES now below Minor 3 confirmation, yet again. 3636.8
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