Wednesday, October 26, 2022

Reminder of Upward Overlap

Today's price action did almost everything but darn your socks. First the market gapped lower, then it filled the gap, then it made a higher high, then it reversed almost, but not quite, completely. The result was to leave a doji candle as the final print. The daily ES chart, below, is just a reminder that there is now upward overlap on what is likely the minuette (i) wave, down, of the minute ((a)) wave down.


The overlap, shown in orange, likely just confirms the minute ((b)) wave up was underway, and that a larger-in-time wave minuette (iv) is the less likely count. Today (you can review this LINK) we were able to count c = a or a (c) = (a). The degree is uncertain. Yesterday, we showed the possibilities for the several styles of "B" waves that could be made from here. You should review that post if you have not seen it yet.

Have a good start to your evening.

TraderJoe

17 comments:

  1. Puzzling why an over-lap of a first wave would be considered part of an A wave down...?

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    1. Many were looking for a triangle or flat to get the fourth wave to hit the channel. It is 'technically' still possible as w-x-y, but very low odds at this point. TJ.

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  2. Hi! thanks for all the information you share with us. Sorry to ask such a silly question, i am starting with Elliott Waves counts in Dax... Can a leading diagonal be a wave A? if so, what retrace can we expect? 50%? Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. Yes. The retrace after A can vary from 38 - 81% typically. The retrace is a 'tough call'. TJ.

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  3. Not ideal but it is a corrective wave.

    https://imgur.com/cGdygOL

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  4. SPY 15-min: closed the opening gap, and made a lower local low, and is in a new tentative parallel.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/a9uTTBbI/

    TJ

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  5. 30 Min SPX some of those horizontal lines go back in time as reversals or gaps
    https://www.tradingview.com/x/MGeCTS3b/

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  6. SPY 15-min: with the lower low, let's see if an acceleration channel lower forms or not. It's not guaranteed. The higher channel might need to be re-tested first. Let's see.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/uJtTV0E7/

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SPY 15-min: lower lows and a new up (green) fractal, and a new down (red) fractal.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/nTVeYWbv/

      Still watching the upper line on the 'potential' acceleration channel. Waves still very choppy.

      TJ

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  7. Reminder: Earnings after the bell include AAPL, AMZN, INTC, etc.
    TJ

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  8. ES acceleration lower after the cash bell.
    TJ

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  9. update https://imgur.com/f646Oax

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  10. A new post is started for the next day.
    TJ

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