Using the SPY 2-Hr chart, there are now 137 candles on the chart, well within the 120 - 160 candle range of The Eight-Fold-Path Method for Counting an Impulse. Price is still inside of the parallel.
Today, the 38.2% retrace was hit. Price can travel a bit higher, but not too much higher for a (iv)th wave.
Have a good start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Per the featured post on the Eight Fold Path at the top right corner:
ReplyDelete"Computer studies have shown that most wave four's will have the EWO retrace to +10% - to -40% of the maximum value of the EWO in Step 3 (usually wave iii of 3)"
If I'm doing the math correctly, the EWO is already about 45% the length of maximum and continue to get wider if the price reaches all the way to the parallel line. This would reduce the odds of this being a wave iv, at least based on the rules of the Eight Fold Method.
Key words, "most", and "reduces the odds". I have seen some go to 60% but very infrequently. Keep in mind most of the studies are on 'daily' time frames. Lower time frames subject to a bit more variation. But, watch it closely.
DeleteLooking at TNX (.TNX, $TNX, etc.) , I would say wave iv is done.
ReplyDeleteI think so to. 4.43% is an area of interest.
DeleteSPY 15-min: gaps galore. It wouldn't surprise me to see a pre-Payroll report triangle for wave (iv). It certainly doesn't have to happen, but it could.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/oFuGswuv/
TJ
Island gap coupled with TL break interesting.
ReplyDeleteSPY 15-min: nothing much yet; attempt to fill gap, EWO back above the zero line, and trend line revised,
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ARRiT7x7/
TJ
Is the EWO following the +10 rule?
ReplyDeleteDifficult trading today. The held 3720 which was support but still not over the daily 18ma - yet
ReplyDeleteWith regard to the difficulty of the day, I have advocated that each reader every-single-day plot the "intraday wave-counting-screen". Then, apply Ira's rules at this lower time frame.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/PfdbnArT/
I refuse to publish it every day, but one can see as Ira would say, "the support of the lower Bollinger Band, and confluence of the 100-MA". Further, there is a doji candle at that location. Lastly, the intraday slow stochastic crossed up above the 21 level, indicating prices might head for the intraday SMA.
Same exact rules/guidelines as Ira provides - just a lower degree fractal of the daily. I add the daily pivot points for reference, and the Bill Williams fractals so I don't miss a peak of some importance.
From a counting perspective, there were only three waves down from the high labeled as a-b-c. A fourth wave never developed on this time scale. I could tell almost immediately when the cash market opened, the overnight wave took an incredible amount of time for such little price action at the gap, and it was going to be a problem all day.
So, this warned me to 'tread lightly' all day, and that's what I did.
TJ
..as a reminder to all, you plot the 30-min time frame on the ES 'futures' and the 18-period Bollinger Bands at +/- 2STD, with 18-period SMA (red), the 100-period SMA (green), the daily Pivot Points (standard calculation), and Bill Williams fractals all along with the slow stochastic (regular calculation). And the same guidelines are followed as Ira recommends for the daily.
DeleteTJ
That's great, going to use this - thank you
DeleteWelcome. TJ.
DeleteIs the "intraday wave counting screen" always the 30 min chart or is it the time frame that puts 120-160 candles for the wave of interest?
Delete@David. It is always the 30-min. It is a helpful guide to know when predictions of excessively large down waves might not occur intraday (i.e. below the bands), and when predictions of excessively large up waves might not occur intraday (i.e. above the bands). It has less to do with the 'overall' wave count, which varies with the time-frame as per The Eight-Fold-Path Method. And it aids the wave count in other ways. For example, when there are 4 - 5 consecutive closes outside of the upper or lower band, it is possible the next close(s) will be inside of the band.
DeleteThese again, are the same considerations Ira uses on the daily chart, and helps narrows the possibilities, instead of 'just-wondering'. The two complement each other, and it is good to be aware of both for the instrument involved.
I realize this is 'not' how most people work. That's a hint!
TJ
Thanks, TJ.
DeleteSPY 15-min: higher high and gap filled. Looks like wave (iv) is headed for the upper parallel on the 2-Hr chart, above, "or worse, higher". Right now, there are likely three waves up. If the waves stop around 3,820 - 3,840, then it might count as a-b-c to (iv). The upward wave is too long > 150% to meet the rules for an expanding triangle (which might have started earlier).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/SvyYXXdX/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ