As the difficult wave counting continued, today the ES futures made a lower daily high, and lower daily low. This is shown on the ES daily futures chart, below.
There is not too much to report on here, except that after prices made the lower high, they made a beeline to fight a battle at the 18-day SMA. What did we do today?
What we did today
- We showed an initial chart indicating there could be a lot of compression going into the open.
- We said prices could either pop or drop with that amount of compression. There was a pop.
- After the top did not go over the high of the prior daily bar, we started counting downward.
- We counted a descending expanding diagonal 5-3-5-3-5 wave (these are usually leading).
- As prices kept dropping lower, we further counted down enough waves for an impulse.
- See the impulse chart with the diagonal at this LINK. (Note degrees to illustrate point only).
- Early in day we suggested that if an upward trend line was broken, it could mean a triangle.
- That upward trend line was broken, and it appears likely that we are in a triangle of some sort.
One of the triangles, the larger triangle, would date back to the beginning of October. A smaller triangle would date back to only four-days ago and would be of smaller degree. It is difficult to say which is in play at this point. There are justifications for both.
Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
Thank you very much ET.
ReplyDeleteThis wave with the LD as w1 has been awesome and unexpected by most.
Days 21-24 are a window of time for an autumm panic according to the studies of Chris Carolan. It will be very interesting to see what happens. Looking the Dow, for the last 80 years, 59 times was up and 21 times down (some of them crashes).
Welcome 6Q. TJ.
DeleteHere's the pop; which may be part of a 'b' wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/3FvasrPD/
TJ
SPY 30-min: back-testing prior up trend line (dotted blue) and upper channel line.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/pU2vRbjS/
Placed a 'wave-counting-stop' above prior high.
TJ
Contracting diagonal since Tuesday?
ReplyDeleteRetrace stopped at 61.8 so far.
DeleteI see how you can suggest that. It 'is' currently possible.
DeleteTJ
Is TLT headed to 82 next? Sure seems likely.
ReplyDeleteCan move from high on 14th to low on 20th be a running flat for wave 2 off the lows?
ReplyDelete'Possible' but keep in mind where the upper daily Bollinger band is. Can still be a simple (a), triangle (b), (c). One issue with a running second wave would be how long in time the 'b' wave of (Ii) is. It is likely a degree violation in time.
DeleteTJ
Can we consider today's entire rise as corrective? Internally, with low timeframes there are some overlaps and it is difficult to count as an impulse.
ReplyDeleteI agree with this. Perfect setup for a gap down Monday.
Delete0leqae.explaon a perfect setup please
Delete"please"
DeleteThis morning could have ended a 335 correction since Thursday noonish. Its up over the channel so unless it dives the large triangle is on thin ice. I am headed hunting. Have a great weekend all. I look forward to the weekend observations.
ReplyDeleteIf is a triangle since 14th top, now finishing wave (d) ?
DeleteWith a close outside the channel, the larger triangle is out. It had plenty of time.
DeleteI think a 335 correction since last Thursday ended this morning.
So with the diagonal TJ counted off the bottom and a running correction that ended this morning, Monday could gap up.
15 minute chart rising wedge pop and now dropping
ReplyDeleteSPY 30-min: with the 'wave-counting-stop' having been hit, this is the smaller triangle I was referring to in the comments.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/MxJU6wFZ/
'OFTEN' the target out a triangle is the width of the triangle added to the breakout point.
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ