We said this morning in the early morning comments that the so-called 'Smart-Money' could easily take profits against the lower daily Bollinger Band (see this LINK). They did. Further, we counted an initial five-waves-up and then were treated to a very substandard running correction. It felt like another machine-driven rally, but that is beside the point. Further up waves also produced very substandard corrections. No correction approached 50 - 62%.
At the end of the day, we arrived at this count.
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SPY Cash - 5 min - Potential Diagonal |
The count can be a 5-3-5-3-5 Diagonal, and it may be a leading diagonal. Perhaps tomorrow will provide a decent retrace. It should, but it does not have to - so be on guard.
These waves could be an (a) wave, up, or they can be a (i) wave up. As you probably know by now, we think we could be in the minute ((b)) wave, up. This wave up can unfold as literally "any three wave", correction including a triangle.
We'll try to take it wave-by-wave but bear in mind that even for the best wave counters 'B' waves can be very testy.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
stopped at the 18ma, thanks Ira
ReplyDeleteand ET!
DeleteAll, please note I have to be 'flexible' with degree labeling in the minute ((b)) wave, up. For example, by reducing the degree of the up waves one degree, the up wave 'may' only be a, or i, as well. In other words, since v down was only about this long, the up wave 'may' only be i or a, also. Unfortunately, this also makes the job of counting that much more difficult.
ReplyDeleteTJ
ES 30-min: consider a whippy expanding triangle for the overnight waves. This pattern 'must' make a lower low. If it does not, it is not the triangle.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/EDbVRH15/
TJ
ES 30-min: the potential triangle has the new low; validating the triangle. Chart is behind, will follow shortly.
DeleteTJ
Chart with the lower low.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/MmD5pwvI/
TJ
ES 30-min: note the conjunction of the intraday 100-MA, the daily pivot point, and the 38.2% retrace.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/tF1Z4r07/
TJ
ES 30-min: it hasn't yet, but IF the down wave goes significantly beyond the 38.2% retrace, then it 'might' count like a multiple expanded flat with a 2.000 or 2.618 wave rather than an expanded triangle. There is nothing bullish on the intraday chart until/unless price regains the 18-SMA on the 30-min.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/S8spbAU2/
TJ
This could be 2 of a diagonal since 3825 for 5 of ((a)).
ReplyDeleteRejection of 18ma - yet again.
ReplyDeleteSPY 5-min: something like this might be interesting. Watch the wave measurements carefully.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/EodOX7Xk/
TJ
This would be b of 3 of 5 of ((a)) on diagonal idea.
ReplyDeleteSPY 5-min: worth watching the later dotted down trend line to see if it is broken and or re-tested.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/nXXs7Q2C/
TJ
Thanks TJ, could be that we formed an irregular flat correction of the preceding wave.
ReplyDeleteCertainly a good possibility/ probability.
DeleteI'm wondering if we don't get a triangle to get us to the other side of the channel.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/KWbhwPl
https://imgur.com/42Lham4
Measurements would better indicate a triangle if the up wave was 78.6%; not there yet. And a 1.272 - 1.618 further wave up could go over the prior high.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/D7j1g7Sx/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ