The diagram on the left shows the potential zigzag that we might have so far to the minute ((b)) wave. This is counted as minuette (a),(b),(c) to the minute ((b)) wave.
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BUT, if you reduce the degree of those waves one degree, and you make them sub-minuette waves a,b,c then they can form either the sub-minuette (w) wave of a double zigzag (upper middle), or the sub-minuette (a) wave of a Flat wave (lower middle).
By the same reasoning the patterns on the right of a triple zigzag (upper right) or triangle (lower right) can also easily be formed.
As far as I can tell, there is - as yet - no determining factor. Wave counters simply must tough it out and do their best with the technical indicators in this situation.
Yes, if this wave is just before the minute ((c)) wave of the Minor 5 wave, then it very well might form a triangle, but it is absolutely not obligated to.
As such at this stage it is exceptionally difficult to provide estimates of how far the wave might travel unless the wave is done with the single triangle, as per the diagram on the left at this location.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
https://linksharing.samsungcloud.com/ac0RgAcBMbWr
ReplyDeleteTj please view above link
On 4 hour chart
Triple zig zag
Somewhat possible in futures. Likely not possible in cash. TJ.
Deletehttps://linksharing.samsungcloud.com/6bWFDa7TDzie
ReplyDeleteThat can just as easily be the double zigzag as the divisions of the first (w) aren't that apparent. When I say there is some guessing to do here I mean it.
DeleteTJ
Man this post right here, is GOLD! It deserves air time right up there with the 8Fold Method. There are other candidates too such as
ReplyDelete- The one titled 'Trillions' in which you make the case for Long Term Cycle and propose the current Primary C count.
- Diagonals, in which you outline the rules required for contracting and expanding diagonals
- The purpose and objective of what you're trying to do here and the expected cadence/behavior from the readers.
- At least several others related to wave counting which I can't pin-point right now.
Will you consider having more than one featured posts? It should reduce the amount of silly questions from the newly onboarded readers (which is understandable) as they didn't have the opportunity to read the old gems. This set of key posts would act as the minimum pre-requisites to quickly get up to speed and start contributing to the blog, or at least get the most out of it.
Thx
-TJ
One question, in the triple zigzag, where would the current wave (c)'s position be? At the (w) or the (y) wave. I'm guessing the prior, but just looking for confirmation. Thanks
DeleteMy understanding is that it is a limitation of Google Blogger that only one 'featured post' is allowed. As to (w) or (y), 'could be' either at this point. TJ.
DeleteSPY 5-min: here's what it looks like, so far, after the spike on the housing data. Potential truncation at yesterday's high.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/EosygzCk/
TJ
..also, Canada only raised rates by 0.50% not 0.75% expected. TJ.
Deleteweekly 18 MA is at 3918 on ES, just a hop away.
ReplyDeleteSPY 30-min: closing in on equality when the triangle is considered.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/c3ECLdvD/
TJ
Great risk reward for shorts at this point?
ReplyDeleteApproximately 3 to 4% upside and 20% + downside possible from current levels.
Closing levels will be interesting today.
Most people waiting for 3940 / 4000 s&p to short. Usually markets don't oblige.
ReplyDeleteAnyway Tj is best is counting this. Waiting for his top confirmation.
Hi - How do you know that most people are waiting for 3940 / 4000 to short? It's useful information if we can confirm the validity of it.
DeleteES 3-min: one more trip over the high, possible, perhaps likely.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/YzGLW4Jw/
TJ
ES 3-min: that overlap warning was just hit. Last chance diagonal or done. TJ.
ReplyDeleteThis would be the equality (c) = (a) count because price has already overlapped downward. Chart is behind.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/5WDNvilF/
TJ
SPY 30-min: as a reminder, here is the a,b-triangle,c count configured as best I can.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/oAFFvNCd/
TJ
Note: there is some MACD divergence at the high. Yes, a diagonal wave 'could' happen here but only if this morning's low holds. TJ.
DeleteMaybe this has been covered, but what about a contracting diagonal from 3641.5 to 3874.25?
ReplyDeleteIt would be a of y.
DeleteI have stayed away from that because diagonals are 'supposed to' have 62% or better internal retraces. 'Possible' but less likely in the futures. But because the futures waves are overnight waves, that pattern also does not show in cash as far as I can find. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ