On the ES daily chart here is just a reminder of the larger daily count we are working on. We are currently looking for the minute ((a)) wave down. We showed one way to possibly count it in the prior post (see this LINK). But that count is not finished yet and requires more downward movement in proper form.
Notice that the Elliott Wave Oscillator is a nick away from going below the zero line. Further, if the current downward wave overlaps the prior minute ((a)) wave, up, then it would likely invalidate any impulse count upward for that upward wave set.
Further, sometimes the minute ((a)) wave comes very close to the low of wave Minor 3. If that happens, we will reduce the degree of the current waves by one level. For now, let's see how this count goes.
Have a good start to the evening,
TraderJoe
FWIW, we already have overlap in DJIA, assuming similar pattern...
ReplyDeleteGood info! Thx. TJ.
Deletehttps://schrts.co/eKuqDQzk
ReplyDeleteVIX - if this is going to be a big bear market, then it seems to me we should get a Vix over 40. The actual fed funds rate is 2.37%. Stockcharts has not updated it.
Not quite correct. If you're going to get a big bear market it is 'only' because the Smart Money (large players) are reducing their high-priced inventory to pick it up at much lower prices much later. Every technical indicator is a 'follower' of price or is determined by price, with possible exception of volume. Volume sometimes indicates that this group of players is changing their minds.
DeleteTJ
Yes, VIX can remain muted while markets sell off. VIX is just a measure of volatility, not price. There is no fundamental rule that states volatility must rise if markets sell off.
DeleteET, Thanks for update.
ReplyDeleteXLE showing some weakness today, not sure if it will continue. I think a triangle on weekly XLE is possible. Normally the ETF should follow it's commodity and peak after the commodity does.
ES 30-min: here is the updated wave-counting screen with updated daily pivots, Bollinger Bands, and 100-MA.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/4VncUDcn/
So far, it is mid-range hash. There was one up (green) fractal break, but then the second and third up (green) fractals did not break. A reminder is provided that today is the last trading day of the month, which often sees sloppiness due to 'window dressing', and tomorrow is the first of the month which often (not always) sees inflows.
TJ
ES 30-min; break of first down (red) fractal back, and down to lower intraday band.
DeleteTJ
ES - 30m - let's see if we get follow through and reach our initial target (or beyond)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/9dhfxnezwz9q5ly/30mrdh.PNG/file
SPY 2-Hr: "at present", it looks like a wedge; let's see if a lower low is in stock.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/DGuREwPL/
TJ
ES 30-min: just a reminder, the 09:30 high is an up (green) fractal. And the 11:00 low is a down (red) fractal that has now been exceeded lower.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Bz8RLh70/
TJ
ES is through the daily low. TJ
DeleteSPY is through the daily low (chart below)
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/0wgHkvy6/
TJ
SPY 2-Hr + volume. I would put a 'wave-counting-stop' above today's high, meaning if today's high is exceeded, then it likely means a larger correction is underway. The chart shows the one of the few technical indicators I follow (besides EWO).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Su6hjbAC/
It is likely that indicators that are 'blended' or 'hybrids' are 'splendid', but for what I don't know. "You make money on price. You try to track the Smart Money with volume."
TJ
SPY (1x2) - .618 retrace in sight
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_132959ab07f3df1767782ed521e5528a.png
NQ futures: from what I can see they have also overlapped lower - just a YM did, according to Tachyon.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/w71PFlTi/
TJ
ES, as of tonight, has the overlap as well from these quotes (unofficial).
DeleteTJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ