U.S. equity prices as measured by the cash SPY (30 min chart) continued their sideways movement and ran into the right-hand-side of the descending Elliott parallel trend channel.
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| SPY Cash - 30 min - Channel Touch |
Then prices backed off a tad into the close. Meanwhile, the Elliott Wave Oscillator got back to the zero line, as shown by the black circle.
On the ES hourly chart, we showed the possibility of this expanding triangle in the comments for the prior post. The time signatures still look correct for it. Here is the updated chart of this potential.
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| ES Futures - 1 Hr - Potential Expanding Triangle wave iv? |
Price needs to clear the prior ((C)) wave before making a new lower low to validate the triangle shape. If it does, it potentially targets 4,175 - 4,200. Maybe this will happen in the overnight or on news tomorrow. If price can not clear the ((C)) wave, then it might possibly be counted as a failed double combination. Cash then might be counted as a contracting version of a triangle. The market is being cagey.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Hi, the ES made a 4185.20 high. Do you think the prior ((c)) wave is now clear?
ReplyDeleteYes, the ((c)) wave was cleared, and there is now an acceptable ((e)) wave up. Further, the ES 5-min chart, below, suggests there are five waves down from the high which means to watch to see if a retrace does not go over the high.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/ytuiz
'As always', the first five-waves-down 'might be' for the ending of a fourth wave flat, so just exercise care. You might watch the larger two-hour expanding triangle lower trend lines to look for a break, and a lower low, etc.
TJ
ES 2-Hr: just to note that the ((D))-to-((E)) trend line has been broken in 'less time' than it took to build.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/ytv1x
Another milestone would be trading below the b wave of the ((E)) wave. But, there could easily be several hours of sideways-to-lower movement to consolidate the recent drop on the 5-min chart. It took about six-hours to decline!
TJ
feels like one of those
ReplyDeletePowell triangles into tomorrow's speech at 10am
SPY cash 30-min: looks like SPY spent all day trying to get to the 38.2% retrace. It can go a bit farther but is not required to.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/UVbRGEHy/
If it goes too far, then not likely a fourth wave (except in a possible diagonal).
TJ
ES 1-Hr: given that 4,202 was just tapped (not quite shown on the chart), then EITHER count may be acceptable.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/mZTh95ld/
Either the expanding triangle, or the double flat (flat to a-3). With the wave extension to the 2.00 Fibonacci level, it may fit the definition of expanded flat 'better'. Usually the rules and guidelines for expanding triangles say no more than 150% for each leg.
IF there is no expanded triangle, then the downward price movement does not have to end, either - as a consequence. The market is picking its poison.
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ