The SPY cash 30-min chart is below. We were looking for a fifth wave down, v, for a couple of days now. After a slightly deeper than usual fourth wave, iv, the Fed Chairman's speech set off non-stop selling today. Boy, when they say risk-off they just don't stop. Prices ended on the lows.
Some other wave counters had bullish counts as their primary count. We did not - at least not until this wave is over. As far as I can tell the five sub-minuette waves lower, make up the first minuet wave, (i), lower. We are not yet to the minute degree let alone the minor degree. Keep in mind, this was a half-hour chart. There can (sooner or later) be a lot more to go.
On the ES daily chart, as you can see, prices got down to the combination of the 100-day SMA and the lower daily Bollinger Band, near where they settled. The daily slow stochastic ended up in over-sold territory.
At the moment, we have no problems with wave overlap - which is very nice not to have to deal with! We will see if the Smart Money took some profits at the lower band, possibly allowing for some retrace waves upward.
Could prices just "break"? They could. But another thing that could happen is a gap down in the overnight on Sunday - when Asia can more fully react to the statement and the subsequent price action, and then a sharp U-turn in order to make a flat wave in the futures. Possible, not guaranteed.
Again, with the five-waves down it puts us on alert to watch for a retrace that does not go over the high. of 4,327.50 and there is just nothing to the downside that will surprise me from here.
Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
Been lurking for a while. Your analysis has been spot on. Figure Powell is between a rock and a hard place. He'd dearly like to goose the stock market here since it's down 20% on the year. But he can't. His bogey is 2% y-o-y inflation and he's at 8%, even though that rate may now be peaking. So he must stay tight, or tighten. Not what Mr. Market wants to hear after a fairly robust but risky two-month rally. So, something has to give!! You don't need to publish this. I just wanted to give you some well-deserved positive feedback. I shorted the market early this morning (spxs, sqqq, calls on the $VIX), may cover Monday after the open. I figure John Q Public won't be a happy camper this weekend looking at his 401-K plan. JQ may want to sell some stuff Monday. :>))
ReplyDeleteIf we are seeing this kind of downward momentum in waves at micro-degree trend,, things are gonna get interesting next few weeks. Can they avoid a circuit-breaker, Working Group notwithstanding? And yes, they have been quite busy!
ReplyDeleteVIX - reg div (hiddens) - some are more apparent than others
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/zzncjlwvbkcemzh/vixrdh.PNG/file
Any problem that the current rsi reading is already almost at the previous highs?
DeleteSPX - (60m)(25x2) - initial area of interest
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_fd7e4ad4d0c13b5f7ecf06bbc7c3ea11.png
ES 30-min: before the open of the evening session. It looks and measures like v = iii at the moment in the downward direction. While that is not impossible, I was just wondering if there was a probability for an extended fifth wave, particularly the way the overnight sometimes follow-through on the prior movement.
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_9d1a86f929acfcf83683015efc253846.png
If this does occur, maybe look for v = 1.618 x iii.
TJ
Thanks Tj. Say if v is or is not1.618 of iii of(i) what is the max retrace can be of wave (ii) 50% and should not cross iv (4200)?
ReplyDeleteNo. The limits you describe are not the maximum. Don't make stuff up that is not in the book. TJ.
DeleteManu I think the EW rule is that a 2nd wave "may" fully retrace (100 %) of a 1st wave but cannot exceed it.
DeleteES - TJ what’s your opinion of AO going lower on V than iii ? Thanks
ReplyDeleteextended fifth .. different than usual extended first or extended third.
DeleteTJ
ES 30-min: here is the usual intraday wave-counting screen with intraday Bollinger Bands, slow stochastic, and updated daily pivot points which readers of this blog should all be able to generate by now, and should be doing so daily.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/AdUrJPDG/
Price has broken the daily pivot point P, lower, and has broken the last three down fractals lower. Currently, price is at the 78.6% FIbonacci level of the entire wave up. I'm personally watching for either a flat or a larger expanding diagonal upwards (just on this timeframe).
TJ
..for the flat, the 90% level of 4,013 'must' hit or exceeded lower. TJ.
DeleteES 30-min: the last six down (red) fractals back have been exceeded lower and 4,011.50 was just hit allowing for a potential flat wave, or the next impulse lower. Below the low is needed to make an 'expanded flat'. TJ.
Delete..daily support S1 has just been hit and exceeded lower. TJ.
DeleteES 30-min: new 'daily' low below 4,006.25 has been eeked out. TJ.
DeleteES 30-min: at this point, the three up waves that might make a flat wave or an expanded flat wave can be labeled as follows:
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/9lWcUSWW/
I'm not sure of the degree yet, we may be reducing the degree one level if a turn-around "c" wave is made upward after appropriate lower lows.
TJ
b wave of proposed flat seems shy of 90% of a.
Delete@tachy; sorry for any confusion the blue a-b-c shown is a zigzag; if it were going to be a larger flat, then c would be re-labeled as a-3, right? then the down wave as b-3 of a larger flat. Otherwise, you are correct in your statement. I was just referring to the larger flat.
DeleteTJ
SPX stocks above 50ma - current (daily bar still in progress)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/49ctpygwx6gb7p8/above50%25283%2529.PNG/file
VIX is Very muted.... Theories?
ReplyDeleteES 5-min: here's a very tentative count if it completes properly. May have to look for waves in the overnight.
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TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ