The ES 2-hour chart is below. We have been looking for the possible end to a fourth wave. Today we are showing two Fibonacci retracement rulers. They are from top-to-bottom of the whole wave, and top-to-bottom of just wave iii, and they show 38% at very, very similar locations, practically on top of each other.
In addition to the measurements, wave ii and wave iv would exhibit alternation if wave iv ended in this area. Further, wave iv is much longer-in-time than wave ii - a characteristic we often look for in impulses and in expanding diagonals. Will the wave impulse? Only the Smart Money knows for sure what they will do with their funds depending on Chair Powell's remarks tomorrow.
But, if a new low is made in wave v, then the market can still turn around to make a second wave up at some point. E_T saying, "if you want to have third waves, you have to have the patience to have first and second waves complete themselves."
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
I like it. Some chartists are counting wave (B) of iv as wave v, which doesn't look right based on the structure.
ReplyDeleteTJ -
ReplyDeleteRussell 2000 is carving out a similar fractal to the ES/DJI/NQ. One exception is that the fourth wave retrace is getting a bit long in the foot. Please see chart below.
https://www.mediafire.com/view/ybrj6628iuw7p0t/Russell_2K.jpg/file
Wave 3 is a nice 1.61 extension of wave 1 (blue line). However, the 4th wave has already retraced close to 61.8% of wave 3 (red lines) and is only about 10 points away from an overlap with wave 1. I understand this can morph into a diagonal if the overlap occurs, however, is there an alternative count at a one level higher degree that allows for a higher high? There is a lot of bearishness out there on articles, comments, forums, etc. With a long weekend coming up, I feel (I know not very scientific or objective) that there's a 'need' for a higher high to wash out week hands and volume and volatility returns in Sept/Oct.
The previous count is full per your publication here https://www.tradingview.com/x/3QVl4DhF/
Is there an alternative that would provides for a higher high?
Thanks
First I reject your premise that the Russell is carving out a 'similar fractal' to the ES/DJ/NQ. How many times have I said, "every market is counted separately?" The Russell is 'so different' in composition that it shares very little in common with the ES. Here is a two day chart.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/YoPIrJU0/
The Russell 'has already completed' an expanding diagonal lower as (1) or (A); probably because its smaller stocks are inherently weaker smaller businesses. Every down leg is longer in price & time as shown by the FIbonacci ruler.
Second, I never develop an alternate because 'someone feels a need' for something.
As you can see there is no need for an alternate here. If there was a diagonal down, then wave (2)/(B) is valid until or unless it crosses the all-time-high. I know you have been to my site often - I don't know why you would blatantly throw back at me the very principles I try to provide.
How many times do I have to say it, "you don't count stocks because of what Crude Oil is doing (that's a favorite I get a lot). You don't count stocks for what the Dollar is doing (a new & old favorite on CNBC). You count each index separately and on its own for its own merits. Period". The 'only' things that matter are the validations/invalidations in that particular index.
Further, it's clear to me you put very little work into a Russell count overall before you asked your question. If you think I'm miffed, how would you feel if every day you kept at it, trying to help people learn and they just ignore the basics? It's like a football coach watching his quarterback throw a pass when he doesn't even have the ball by the laces. The coach just shakes his head, mutters some emotional somethings under his breath on the field and maybe has some choice words in the locker room. You get me?
TJ
Feels like we had an impulse and a C wave just completed. Powell and spy are BFF's no matter what he says.
ReplyDeleteThanks TJ,
ReplyDeleteThe gap shown in chart above is not filled yet?
Correct. The close-to-open gap (even in the ES futures) at 4,228,25 was not filled this morning. TJ.
DeleteES futures drop to a lower low after Chair Powell stopped speaking and the opening rebound. TJ.
ReplyDeleteSPY hourly showing the level required to claim an impulse, below the prior low.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/sVEpBX4A/
TJ
SPY hourly has undercut the prior low. Looks like it's impulsing.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/YQNa4tRV/
Since v is longer than i to get here, you might look to v = 0.618 x net (i-to-iii).
TJ
..that level is about 408 SPY +/-; looks easily doable from the current wave configuration, but might not be required to go that far.
DeleteTJ
ES futures have the new low as well. Impulse confirmed. TJ.
DeleteCould it be the start of 3 instead of 5...
Delete@grr .. "could be this .. could be that". There is always a risk and EW can not eliminate them all. But right now, the gap on the ES 2-hr chart, and the lowest low for the RSI show - on a fairly large timescale of 2-hr, i.e. not 5-min - where the third wave is.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/6wsrhdYm/
TJ
SPY (1x2) Target area of 406-407 from 8/19 breakdown
ReplyDeleteWhether you 'like' RSI or EWO, with 120 candles on the 2-min chart, I implore you - I practically beg you - to 'seriously' try The Eight Fold Path Method. It is NOT infallible but it is the very best I have found. Chart below. Notice how the RSI did NOT give a good wave three indication but the EWO/AO did.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/os7U5bsR/
Wave ((4)) has overlapped wave ((3)), and so, it 'could' be done but there is a case for a higher high. If not, we likely go into ((5)).
TJ
Looks like we are indeed breaking down again, but we understand why, explained it, and were fully prepared for it.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/703MPUdI/
A 'very' just sideways fourth to alternate with the fast, rapid 'sharp' second wave.
TJ
Here's a follow-on chart: looks & counts very much like a "running triangle" and the breakdown is from the triangle.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/O6Rx3O1N/
TJ
I continue to think the fed will raise rates above core PCE, currently 4.6% y/y and falling. If so, they have a long way to go and a lot of damage will happen.
ReplyDeleteES - Daily - just a 'reminder' price is 'approaching' the lower daily Bollinger Band, the 100-day SMA and a 'potential' lower parallel line in conjunction with an over-sold daily slow stochastic. Ira would say 'this may be where the Smart Money takes some off the table'. (Not trading or investment advice, just a paraphrase of what one broker teaches.)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/U5JEqVPT/
TJ
SPY has hit 408. TJ.
DeleteSPX - stocks above 50ma - current
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/n8heprfdrjxpaq4/Stocksabove50.PNG/file
ES 30-min: there is 4,073 the 100-day SMA. TJ.
ReplyDeleteSPY - top of 406-407 target range reached.
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_d95d3d571553a5b1a8910fa65b4070b5.png
Delete..just fyi -- where it says "bullish pattern reversed", most of us would not consider that pattern as a "bullish pattern". It looks and acted like a typical "bear flag" pattern that projects downside. Perhaps you can find a way to better incorporate typical consolidations into the mix, instead of just "price breakout, or price breakdown".
DeleteTJ
SPY 2-min: one other item to note; the 'usual' technical rule for a triangle was just met; widest-with of the triangle added to the breakdown point. Chart below.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/MXoA2Eqv/
TJ
Interestingly .. a "running triangle" is bearish is a bear market (because of the lower "b" wave) just like a "running triangle" in a bull market is bullish because of the higher "b" wave. So, while a triangle might signal the end of this wave set lower; there 'might be' more entire wave sets to the down side.
DeleteTJ
this wave doesn't feel or move like the previous waves. We need a bigger boat.
ReplyDeleteES daily - lower daily Bollinger band touched in after-hours. Have a good one all.
ReplyDeleteTJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ